Texas Winter 2013-2014

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Old arctic high pressure cell that has been around for over a week now is finally beginning to erode and move eastward this morning.

A storm system over the SW US will eject into TX today and with increasing low level moisture off the western Gulf of Mexico expect to see light rain develop and increase fairly quickly after noon from west to east across the region. Surface warm front over the northern Gulf waters will move northward and may reach the coastal counties from Victoria to High Island this evening allowing 60 degree dewpoints to push over the “chilled” nearshore waters in the upper 40’s. This will potential create a dense sea fog bank right along the coast. Most areas will hold in the 50’s yet again today, but a few coastal locations could push above 60 if the warm front passes onshore. Rain chances should end fairly quickly late tonight as moisture is swept eastward by the storm system and the next cold front pushes across the region. Rainfall amounts will average generally less than .25 of an inch south of I-10 and .25 to.50 of an inch north of I-10.

Front will move offshore on Saturday with cold air advection returning. Moisture looks to become trapped in the lower levels and this may result in clouds linger much of the day on Saturday and possibly into Sunday morning as many times it is hard to scour out that frontal inversion saturation level. Temperatures will fall back into the 50’s both Saturday and Sunday with lows by Monday morning under clear skies, calm winds, and low dewpoints falling to near freezing.

A longer term warm up begins by Tuesday of next week as established southerly winds return to the region with lows climbing into the 50’s by late next week and highs possibly pushing the mid to upper 70’s. Will likely see a sea fog threat return at some point after Tuesday as dewpoints begin to rise above nearshore water temperatures once again…something we will be dealing with for weeks to come with such cold nearshore temperatures.

Dec 21-26:

Upper air pattern will undergo significant amplification along the US west coast with upper level high pressure building northward deep into Alaska and possibly northern Siberia. Global forecast models show heights rising into the 2-3 standard deviations above normal in this region by the middle of next week. Additionally, the water temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean are some of the warmest in recent decades (nearing some historical values) and this warm pool in the region south of the Gulf of Alaska tends to favor not only building high pressure in this region, but larger and stronger high pressures cells. Upper level high pressure development in this region helps to foster a strong downstream trough over Canada and the US and its intensity/depth is dependent on the intensity of the ridging over Alaska…so the stronger the Alaskan ridge the deeper the downstream US trough.

All of the major global forecast models show a pattern of varying degrees of building high pressure along the US west coast deep into Alaska and potentially northern Russia by the middle to end of next week. This pattern also allows the formation of intense surface high pressure cells over NW Canada promoting the development of a pool of bitter cold air as this area is currently experiencing near zero sunshine. This cold air pool has yet to fully develop and that is why forecast models are having such a hard time determining how cold it is going to get the week of Christmas.

The pattern will certainly favor an arctic air outbreak into the US by the weekend of the 21st, but how cold and how long remain viable questions this morning. With model guidance now so widely available on the internet one must be cautious to avoid believing each model run and the “extreme” numbers that at times can be shown and have been shown over the past 3-4 days. The area to watch over the coming days will be northern Russia into NW Canada and eastern Alaska in the Sunday-Tuesday time period to see how cold the air mass in the source region becomes and if surface pressures build to the forecasted values being shown (1050-1060mb). Surface air temperatures in this region are already running in the -25F to -40F range this morning. This will be much of the focus for the next several days leading into Christmas week.

[KatDaddy]

Planning on being N of Ft Worth in Roanoke with family for the Christmas holiday. Watching the models for both NTX and SE TX over the next 5 days.....interesting days ahead.

[Comanche]

Million dollar question for the board and hopefully promets about the following from Jeff Lindners write-up this morning.

The comment- "...Additionally, the water temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean are some of the warmest in recent decades (nearing some historical values) and this warm pool in the region south of the Gulf of Alaska tends to favor not only building high pressure in this region, but larger and stronger high pressures cells. Upper level high pressure development in this region helps to foster a strong downstream trough over Canada and the US and its intensity/depth is dependent on the intensity of the ridging over Alaska…so the stronger the Alaskan ridge the deeper the downstream US trough..."

Question #1- Is that warm water pool temporary (transient), or is that likely a feature that will hold for the duration of winter, thus keeping the US largely in a cold pattern for the duration?

Question #2- WSI tweeted this morning about MJO going into phase 4 and 5; what is a stronger signal between the MJO and this warm water in the GOA? It seems the warm water so far has trumped the typical effects of +AO, +NAO and -PNA which usually argues a warm CONUS pattern. Will it also render warmer phases of the MJO as useless?

Muchas gracias.

[TheProfessor]

Planning on being N of Ft Worth in Roanoke with family for the Christmas holiday. Watching the models for both NTX and SE TX over the next 5 days.....interesting days ahead.

You will be right around where I'm at.

[Ntxw]

Million dollar question for the board and hopefully promets about the following from Jeff Lindners write-up this morning.

The comment- "...Additionally, the water temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean are some of the warmest in recent decades (nearing some historical values) and this warm pool in the region south of the Gulf of Alaska tends to favor not only building high pressure in this region, but larger and stronger high pressures cells. Upper level high pressure development in this region helps to foster a strong downstream trough over Canada and the US and its intensity/depth is dependent on the intensity of the ridging over Alaska…so the stronger the Alaskan ridge the deeper the downstream US trough..."

Question #1- Is that warm water pool temporary (transient), or is that likely a feature that will hold for the duration of winter, thus keeping the US largely in a cold pattern for the duration?

Question #2- WSI tweeted this morning about MJO going into phase 4 and 5; what is a stronger signal between the MJO and this warm water in the GOA? It seems the warm water so far has trumped the typical effects of +AO, +NAO and -PNA which usually argues a warm CONUS pattern. Will it also render warmer phases of the MJO as useless?

Muchas gracias.

The gulf of Alaska warm pool is not transient. It has been there the entire year and is reaching its apex. If you have been following my posts, this is the warmest, blockiest this region has seen for the entire YEAR beating 1989 and 1957 which is the two tops since data has been kept. Data before that is spotty but the only other year I have found with a similar intensity is 1899, particularly during the Jan to March period.

The other signals are irrelevant relatively. During all of this the AO/NAO has been and will be at points 4SD's above normal. This tells you the Pacific Ocean is going out of the norm and doing something spectacular from a meteorological standpoint.

[srainhoutx]

Million dollar question for the board and hopefully promets about the following from Jeff Lindners write-up this morning.

The comment- "...Additionally, the water temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean are some of the warmest in recent decades (nearing some historical values) and this warm pool in the region south of the Gulf of Alaska tends to favor not only building high pressure in this region, but larger and stronger high pressures cells. Upper level high pressure development in this region helps to foster a strong downstream trough over Canada and the US and its intensity/depth is dependent on the intensity of the ridging over Alaska…so the stronger the Alaskan ridge the deeper the downstream US trough..."

Question #1- Is that warm water pool temporary (transient), or is that likely a feature that will hold for the duration of winter, thus keeping the US largely in a cold pattern for the duration?

Question #2- WSI tweeted this morning about MJO going into phase 4 and 5; what is a stronger signal between the MJO and this warm water in the GOA? It seems the warm water so far has trumped the typical effects of +AO, +NAO and -PNA which usually argues a warm CONUS pattern. Will it also render warmer phases of the MJO as useless?

Muchas gracias.

Quick answer. The -WPO/-EPO regime has trumped the typical winter weather outlooks. The -EPO regime has been in place since the Spring. The models have attempted to break it down, but the Pacific warm pool is driving the weather pattern and any MJO influence would lead to potential sub tropical jet activity, if it happens. The MJO forecasts have been very tricky and not verified to well. Also the PNA forecasts are suggesting slightly positive which even increases the odds of at least a prolonged pattern, or a continuation in reloading the pattern until at least the January time frame before we may...strong emphasis on the may...finally relax sometime in February. Also there are some indications the a weak EL Nino could develop late Winter/early Spring. I know this is rather technical to the casual enthusiast, but this is a rather unusual pattern that we will just have to monitor on a weekly and monthly basis. Hope that helps.

[Portastorm]

Interesting little weather factoid I just saw on Twitter from NWS' Victor Murphy (@wxmanvic):

Last 3 weeks from 11/22-12/12 still coldest avg. temp for the same period for DFW since 1898. 9.2F below avg.

[TheProfessor]

So if the PO/NPO continues at its strength and if the AO/ NAO decides to go negative. And a weak el nino forms. What would the 2nd half of winter look like for Texas?

[veedub63]

Interesting little weather factoid I just saw on Twitter from NWS' Victor Murphy (@wxmanvic):

Last 3 weeks from 11/22-12/12 still coldest avg. temp for the same period for DFW since 1898. 9.2F below avg.

Introduction:
Hello Everyone. LONG time lurker. First time poster. I'm here because I've been utterly fascinated with the weather since I was a youngster. I enjoy reading the data analysis/interpretations provided by the fine folks here. Disclaimer: I mostly root for the extremes (without rooting for suffering, of course). The fury of Mother Nature is humbling and it's great to be humble.

Post:
Makes my wonder if we are standing on the threshold of a once in a century type event. Very interesting. Thanks again for your help Porta.

[Portastorm]

Interesting little weather factoid I just saw on Twitter from NWS' Victor Murphy (@wxmanvic):

Last 3 weeks from 11/22-12/12 still coldest avg. temp for the same period for DFW since 1898. 9.2F below avg.

Introduction:
Hello Everyone. LONG time lurker. First time poster. I'm here because I've been utterly fascinated with the weather since I was a youngster. I enjoy reading the data analysis/interpretations provided by the fine folks here. Disclaimer: I mostly root for the extremes (without rooting for suffering, of course). The fury of Mother Nature is humbling and it's great to be humble.

Post:
Makes my wonder if we are standing on the threshold of a once in a century type event. Very interesting. Thanks again for your help Porta.

Welcome aboard veedub63! Nice to have another south central Texan on the forum. Look forward to your contributions to the ongoing discussion. And the PWC is doing all it can to get some snowflakes to fly in Lago Vista this winter.

[Tireman4]

Welcome aboard veedub63! Nice to have another south central Texan on the forum. Look forward to your contributions to the ongoing discussion. And the PWC is doing all it can to get some snowflakes to fly in Lago Vista this winter.

Do not forget about your Houston kinfolk sir. There will be lots of Grey Goose for the fellas ( and ladies) that are working at the PWC

[iorange55]

Steve McCauley says the Stat Method is up to 30% probability for ice next weekend...

OK...small red flag has just gone up in the long-range data! Our arctic front - due to arrive the weekend before Christmas - is showing signs it wants to produce some ice for north Texas. Although it pales in comparison to the ice storm we just had, nevertheless, we may have to deal with at least some icy glaze by next (not this) weekend. The Stat Method is hitting it with a 30% probability. That may not sound very high, but yesterday it was only 5%. I normally get concerned when it goes over 50%

Let's hope that is not the case. I'm all for some record cold, but please no more ice! I still had a little bit of ice on my patio last night and nearly fell right on my butt. Luckily, I managed to catch myself before I ended up on some Youtube video.

[dhweather]

Interesting little weather factoid I just saw on Twitter from NWS' Victor Murphy (@wxmanvic):

Last 3 weeks from 11/22-12/12 still coldest avg. temp for the same period for DFW since 1898. 9.2F below avg.

Introduction:
Hello Everyone. LONG time lurker. First time poster. I'm here because I've been utterly fascinated with the weather since I was a youngster. I enjoy reading the data analysis/interpretations provided by the fine folks here. Disclaimer: I mostly root for the extremes (without rooting for suffering, of course). The fury of Mother Nature is humbling and it's great to be humble.

Post:
Makes my wonder if we are standing on the threshold of a once in a century type event. Very interesting. Thanks again for your help Porta.

Welcome veedub63! Always good to have more participants in the discussion. Extreme weather is always fun. It's going to happen, we cannot stop it, all we can do is be prepared for it. Tornado season, Hurricane season, and we might be facing Permafrost season this year.

[dhweather]

Joe B tweet:

Siberian air mass at 174 hours with large area near 40 below normal entering US a week from today pic.twitter.com/DQx288JGyd




But look how WARM it will be here before the freezer is in place.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS says "never mind, it won't get that cold in Texas". Just a light freeze down to Houston. I like those mid 70s next Saturday. Unfortunately, it's just lost the cold air again. I'm sure future runs will indicate much colder temps.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah, the GFS op is off its rocker schizo.

Time to start paying attention to the Euro/Canadian for the next 2-3 days until GFS can get into high res mode.

[Tireman4]

12Z GFS says "never mind, it won't get that cold in Texas". Just a light freeze down to Houston. I like those mid 70s next Saturday. Unfortunately, it's just lost the cold air again. I'm sure future runs will indicate much colder temps.

And you know you and I kid each other, but I still have not told you how much I admire your meterological expertise. I mean that. Now, I get to rag on you again.....but a serious comment, I wonder how many OCM's will latch on this model and boldly state, "Ha ha, no cold. We are in the clear". LOL

[weatherdude1108]

12Z GFS says "never mind, it won't get that cold in Texas". Just a light freeze down to Houston. I like those mid 70s next Saturday. Unfortunately, it's just lost the cold air again. I'm sure future runs will indicate much colder temps.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zdec13.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zdec13.gif

Where do you get those graphs? I like them! What does Austin look like ATT?

[ndale]

Off topic for a moment to current weather, a little too dramatic here. We have thunder with the passing showers and lightning just struck outside the window where I was working, could hear a static pop inside the room. Ok I have calmed down now, back to winter.

[HouTXmetro]

Temperatures hovering in the mid 30s to upper 20s for 60 straight hours is not my idea of "losing" the cold air. I'm just saying. But point taken. lol