Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gboudx]

Where do you get those graphs? I like them! What does Austin look like ATT?

You can make them yourself using wxman57's instructions at this thread: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=109958

[ndale]

Ok, since some of us are already planning to prepare this weekend for any extreme cold that may come our way, I need a suggestion. For my outside faucets I have always just covered them with the foam covers from home improvement stores and they have been sufficient even two years ago when temps stayed below freezing for several days. But if we were to get down to the teens what else should be done to the faucets?

[wxman57]

Where do you get those graphs? I like them! What does Austin look like ATT?

You can make them yourself using wxman57's instructions at this thread: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=109958

Of course, you need a copy of MS Excel to make them. I wouldn't bother plotting one from the 12Z GFS as I think it's out to lunch.

[veedub63]

Ok, since some of us are already planning to prepare this weekend for any extreme cold that may come our way, I need a suggestion. For my outside faucets I have always just covered them with the foam covers from home improvement stores and they have been sufficient even two years ago when temps stayed below freezing for several days. But if we were to get down to the teens what else should be done to the faucets?

If the forecast is for extreme cold (with longevity) I might consider shutting my water off at the curb.

[katheria]

There is pipe heat tapes electric. But good luck finding in TX. Ordering online only option

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The 10-day Operational AFWA Global Multi-Center Ensemble shows a mean low temperature of 29F next Sunday morning at 6 am for CLL.

That being said, the potential error in the 2 m temp is on the order of 24F next weekend!

[wxman57]

Ok, since some of us are already planning to prepare this weekend for any extreme cold that may come our way, I need a suggestion. For my outside faucets I have always just covered them with the foam covers from home improvement stores and they have been sufficient even two years ago when temps stayed below freezing for several days. But if we were to get down to the teens what else should be done to the faucets?

If the forecast is for extreme cold (with longevity) I might consider shutting my water off at the curb.

My home has 2 shutoff valves. One at the meter near the street and one on the main water feed that is next to the hose bib on the side of the house. I'm going to Home Depot to get some hose bibb covers and additional pipe insulation. I'm thinking that for the teens I'd just turn off the water near the hose bibb (more convenient than at the street) then drain all the pipes. That way, I can turn it on easily enough to take a shower or do laundry then turn it back off and drain the pipes again.

http://www.homedepot.com/p/Frost-King-2-1-4-in-Sock-Faucet-Cover-FC3/203221860

Home Depot also has electric pipe heaters of various lengths. Might pick one up for the 3 ft of exposed pipe coming out of the ground and into my house:

http://www.homedepot.com/p/Frost-King-6-ft-Electric-Water-Pipe-Heat-Cable-HC6/202262328

Or this one at Lowe's:
http://www.lowes.com/pd_24436-72436-AHB-016_?PL=1&productId=1069433

[dhweather]

Interestinig Joe B tweets.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 33m

Every met dept should be using this pattern in synoptic lab, teaching how to track SOURCE REGIONS of air masses We dont live at 500 mb

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 37m

Saying it might be a bit below normal is not catching what may challenge Dec 1983 for widespread US cold

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 38m

Been talking about parallels to 1983 since before Thanksgiving for this Dec. Models again may be too warm, not cold, given source region

[Big O]

12z European not as impressive as prior runs. Does have a snowstorm for north Texas, though.

[TheProfessor]

12z European not as impressive as prior runs. Does have a snowstorm for north Texas, though.

A typical Texas snow storm ( 3-6 in of snow) or a Midwest snow storm (8-16 in of snow)?

[Comanche]

WXMAN, care to comment on the question I posted on the last page? Would love to hear your thoughts on the warm pacific water pool.

[wxman57]

12z European not as impressive as prior runs. Does have a snowstorm for north Texas, though.

A typical Texas snow storm ( 3-6 in of snow) or a Midwest snow storm (8-16 in of snow)?

2-4" across the Panhandle SE to near Wichita Falls with a trace into the D-FW area. Just looked at the 12Z Euro 2m temps across Houston and the coldest is 31F-32F across northern parts of the city on Monday the 23rd. It's clearly lost sight of the cold air, too.

[wxman57]

WXMAN, care to comment on the question I posted on the last page? Would love to hear your thoughts on the warm pacific water pool.

I'm no warm pool expert, but I'm generally for all the warmth I can get. I'm afraid that the extent of that warm water is too great to be around only briefly. The current U.S. weather pattern may be around for much of the winter.

[Comanche]

WXMAN, care to comment on the question I posted on the last page? Would love to hear your thoughts on the warm pacific water pool.

I'm no warm pool expert, but I'm generally for all the warmth I can get. I'm afraid that the extent of that warm water is too great to be around only briefly. The current U.S. weather pattern may be around for much of the winter.

Good enough, thank you.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, we're seeing some real nutty operational runs now from both the GFS and King Euro. Today's 12z Euro is whacked. Pinches off a cutoff low in the desert SW almost out of nowhere at or about 144 hours. Don't even know why I'm looking at these op runs now other than the "geez whiz" factor. Gotta stay on the ensembles until late in the weekend when the operational runs should be better clued in as to what's going on.

[Portastorm]

WXMAN, care to comment on the question I posted on the last page? Would love to hear your thoughts on the warm pacific water pool.

I'm no warm pool expert, but I'm generally for all the warmth I can get. I'm afraid that the extent of that warm water is too great to be around only briefly. The current U.S. weather pattern may be around for much of the winter.

Comanche, as Ntxw said earlier ... that pool of warm anomalies in the North Pacific has been around pretty much all calendar year. And, get this ... there is some data which suggests it's getting even warmer! That pool helps the -EPO/Alaska ridge block and will keep pumping whatever air is up there ... down here.

[Tireman4]

From Tim Heller, OCM out of Houston on his Facebook page:


Christmas Forecast Update:

Help me out. A lot of people are asking if we're going to have a "pipe-busting freeze" over Christmas. Please share this Facebook post with them. Tell your friends, "ABC 13 is NOT expecting temperatures in the teens!"

This is some of the data we use to write your local Houston forecast. It's the raw output from the GFS forecast model. And while our forecast might vary a few degrees depending on data we find in other models (like the European ECMWF and our own FutureTrack) this shows you the temperature trend over the next two weeks.

Here's what you can expect: Cool this weekend, warmer next week and then a cold front December 21-22 will cool us off again just in time for Christmas. We might have a light freeze in some areas, but at this point I feel comfortable saying, "Your pipes will be OK."

If that changes I'll let you know here on Facebook and on-air.

[Portastorm]

I'm reminded of several Dallas OTA mets who two weeks ago promised their viewers "oh, there won't be any problems with ice or sleet."

[ravyrn]

Wow, not sure how he can feel comfortable saying that.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

He did leave it open to possibility and said if he thought it would happen, he would include it in his forecast. I think that is fair.

What is silly is that they are giving any credence to the GFS operational run. That thing is Lindsay Lohan jacked up right now.