Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

Yeah, I am not sure why he is doing that. He has the Met degree not me, so he has earned that right. I called him up on this on Facebook and he admitted, things do change. His call, so....

[gboudx]

Seems like he shouldn't have said anything except, "we'll have better information by mid next week". It's not wishy-washy, it's just how it is.

[orangeblood]

Yeah, I am not sure why he is doing that. He has the Met degree not me, so he has earned that right. I called him up on this on Facebook and he admitted, things do change. His call, so....

So what I take out of his post is that he's good a reading model output ?

[Tireman4]

Yeah, I am not sure why he is doing that. He has the Met degree not me, so he has earned that right. I called him up on this on Facebook and he admitted, things do change. His call, so....

So what I take out of his post is that he's good a reading model output ?

I suppose. I am not a meteorologist, he is. I just posted it.

[wxman57]

It's hard to explain to the public the difference between the deterministic forecast and the range of uncertainty as far as what temperatures are possible. I'd say that teens here in Houston are certainly possible, but I wouldn't put teens in my deterministic forecast yet. I'd tell my viewers (if I had any) to prepare for the possibility of an extended freeze just in case, particularly if you're heading out of town before the front hits.

[wxman57]

Yeah, I am not sure why he is doing that. He has the Met degree not me, so he has earned that right. I called him up on this on Facebook and he admitted, things do change. His call, so....

So what I take out of his post is that he's good a reading model output ?

I know Tim. I'm sure he's just looking at the model trends toward not as cold and backing off on his wording. He may not be old enough to remember the Arctic blasts of the past and how the models performed with them. Typically, the models lose the cold air around this time frame. I sure do remember the Arctic fronts of the past, and I even saved the weather charts from them to remind myself. Bottom line - don't trust the model output in the 5-10 day time frame (with Arctic fronts). The GFS will probably catch on to what will really happen about 3 days before the cold hits.

[Tireman4]

It's hard to explain to the public the difference between the deterministic forecast and the range of uncertainty as far as what temperatures are possible. I'd say that teens here in Houston are certainly possible, but I wouldn't put teens in my deterministic forecast yet. I'd tell my viewers (if I had any) to prepare for the possibility of an extended freeze just in case, particularly if you're heading out of town before the front hits.

And this is why I listen to you. I like Tim ( love David Paul) and all, but he is really being confident in this. I am not a met, so I have no idea.

[srainhoutx]

It's hard to explain to the public the difference between the deterministic forecast and the range of uncertainty as far as what temperatures are possible. I'd say that teens here in Houston are certainly possible, but I wouldn't put teens in my deterministic forecast yet. I'd tell my viewers (if I had any) to prepare for the possibility of an extended freeze just in case, particularly if you're heading out of town before the front hits.

And this is why I listen to you. I like Tim ( love David Paul) and all, but he is really being confident in this. I am not a met, so I have no idea.

Mario Gomez is an Air Force trained Meteorologist and probably one of the better long range forecaster we have in the media world in Houston. Also remember Dr. Neil Frank hired Mario and David back in the 90's...

[wxman57]

Mario Gomez is an Air Force trained Meteorologist and probably one of the better long range forecaster we have in the media world in Houston. Also remember Dr. Neil Frank hired Mario and David back in the 90's...

Mario Gomez always struck me as one of the better mets in Houston, though I rarely ever watch the local weathercasts these days.

[Tireman4]

It's hard to explain to the public the difference between the deterministic forecast and the range of uncertainty as far as what temperatures are possible. I'd say that teens here in Houston are certainly possible, but I wouldn't put teens in my deterministic forecast yet. I'd tell my viewers (if I had any) to prepare for the possibility of an extended freeze just in case, particularly if you're heading out of town before the front hits.

And this is why I listen to you. I like Tim ( love David Paul) and all, but he is really being confident in this. I am not a met, so I have no idea.

Mario Gomez is an Air Force trained Meteorologist and probably one of the better long range forecaster we have in the media world in Houston. Also remember Dr. Neil Frank hired Mario and David back in the 90's...

David backed off too, but he totally said, the models still need to get a handle on this.

[Tireman4]

From David Paul, OCM in Houston:

Friday Christmas Outlook Update: Today's model runs suggest a freeze both mornings December 22nd and 23rd (Sun & Mon) but NOT cold enough to damage pipes. Good news for now. Christmas Eve and day look chilly, cloudy and maybe a bit drizzly.

I told him to not forget the "flip flops"

[Tireman4]

From Anthony Yanez, OCM from Houston:





I get questions like these quite often before important holidays. The last several days I've received a lot about the Christmas forecast, much more than usual.

Earlier in the week the GFS, the American model, showed Christmas week with temperatures in the teens and 20s. Obviously, that's record-breaking cold!

On Friday, that same model shows temperatures in the 30s in the morning with highs in the 50s, similar to what we had Wednesday and Thursday this week. So what is the weather going to be like?


Wild predictions of holiday extreme cold are premature

"Any idea what the weather will be like on Christmas day?" -Brent Barclay

"I am seeing on the internet about a Siberian Express coming down around Christmas day or little before...ruling out and understanding that it is two weeks out with predictions tough, what are your thoughts on this?.” - Mike Beauchamp

“We hear that Houston may have an ice storm Christmas from another news station here at the office. What's your prediction?.” - Sharon Stephens

The question is: How do I make plans for a forecast beyond seven days? There isn't a comforting answer.

Weather models are pretty good three to five days out. However, there is a drastic drop in accuracy once you go beyond six days. Also the GFS (American Long Range Model) is notorious for being highly inaccurate beyond seven days. All of these questions are asking for a forecast more than two weeks away. A lot can change with the weather in that time.

Low pressure disturbances that create rain usually only show up on the weather models 12 hours to three days out. Cold fronts, especially for southeast Texas, can stall north of us or even on top of us, and that will completely change a forecast two to three days out. This explains why our seven-day forecast will change for the weekend Monday through Thursday of the same week.

I could keep giving examples, but the point is the weather is constantly in motion and always changing.

With Christmas still a week and a half away, we'll see more changes to the forecast. Anyone want to make a friendly wager and predict the low and high temperature for Christmas Day within two degrees?

Studies have been done on long-range forecasting past seven days and found no skill in prediction. In fact, climatology, or the seasonal average, will beat a computer-generated long-range forecast.

AccuWeather is marketing a 25-day forecast. I would love a middle school school student to do their science fair project comparing the forecast to what actually happens.

http://www.click2houston.com/hot-button ... index.html

[Portastorm]

12z GFS ensembles still looking mighty cold ...



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[Tireman4]

12z GFS ensembles still looking mighty cold ...

Shiver me timbers Porta!!!

[dhweather]

12z GFS ensembles still looking mighty cold ...

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/5449/839w.png

A meager 40-50 degrees (f) below normal - no big deal. What really stinks is that I called my firewood guy I've used for years, he's not doing it any more. *sigh*

[wxman57]

12z GFS ensembles still looking mighty cold ...

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/5449/839w.png

A meager 40-50 degrees (f) below normal - no big deal. What really stinks is that I called my firewood guy I've used for years, he's not doing it any more. *sigh*

GFS ensembles are not even indicating a freeze for Houston next weekend.

[dhweather]

Well, lets put this into perspective. They are talking degrees (c) below average. The anomaly from the last 30 years of climatology.

So if the average for a given day in Dallas in late December is 55 (f) that's 12.7 (c)

12.7 (c) temp - 12 anomaly (c) = .7 (c) , which is 33 degrees (f)

So based upon that we are really looking at being 22 (f) below normal. That's cold, but it's far from 83/89.

[wxman57]

Well, lets put this into perspective. They are talking degrees (c) below average. The anomaly from the last 30 years of climatology.

So if the average for a given day in Dallas in late December is 55 (f) that's 12.7 (c)

12.7 (c) temp - 12 anomaly (c) = .7 (c) , which is 33 degrees (f)

So based upon that we are really looking at being 22 (f) below normal. That's cold, but it's far from 83/89.

I'm looking at a graphical plot of ensemble member ranges. For DFW, they're forecasting 22-24F on the 22nd and 23rd with highs near 32. For the 22nd, coldest member is 10F and warmest is 34F for the low. Coldest member for the low on the 23rd is 8F, warmest is 39F. Yeah, somewhere between single digits and 40 for the low looks reasonable.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well, lets put this into perspective. They are talking degrees (c) below average. The anomaly from the last 30 years of climatology.

So if the average for a given day in Dallas in late December is 55 (f) that's 12.7 (c)

12.7 (c) temp - 12 anomaly (c) = .7 (c) , which is 33 degrees (f)

So based upon that we are really looking at being 22 (f) below normal. That's cold, but it's far from 83/89.

I'm looking at a graphical plot of ensemble member ranges. For DFW, they're forecasting 22-24F on the 22nd and 23rd with highs near 32. For the 22nd, coldest member is 10F and warmest is 34F for the low. Coldest member for the low on the 23rd is 8F, warmest is 39F. Yeah, somewhere between single digits and 40 for the low looks reasonable.

LOL... yep, gfs is silly.

[dhweather]

Well, I guess we get to hurry up and wait for hi res data to come in. Right now, it's not looking THAT scary. Cold, but not close to 83/89.