Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD:

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF A POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE ARCTIC
OCEAN FROM SIBERIA INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA ON FRIDAY. THE TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING FEATURES
ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION SHOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF COLD AIR WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AS A
1035MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL TRANSLATES SOUTH INTO THE STATES
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC OUTBREAK...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNDER-FORECASTING JUST HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. HAVE UNDERCUT THE COLDEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES FOR TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO CONSERVATIVE.

MEANWHILE...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN INTENSIFYING/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY
EVEN DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND TRACK OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WITH IT. AS HAS BEEN THE THEME SO FAR THIS
SEASON...THE FRONTAL LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW...AND AN ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST NEAR 850MB. THUS ANY
WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT IS
A FOOLS ERRAND TO GET BOGGED DOWN IN DETAILS OF LOCATION AND
PRECIP TYPE...AND THE MORE APPROPRIATE FORECAST WOULD BE TO SAY
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP OF SOME KIND ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHER FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THAN IT IS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AS THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE SUBFREEZING AIR IS A CONCERN. THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS IN ANY OF THE MODEL DATA THAT WINTRY PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AS BAD AS THE LAST. FURTHERMORE...THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID MODERATION
OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THE FORECAST
HAVE BROUGHT A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN INTO JUST THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST. AGAIN THERE IS A LOT THAT CAN
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FINER
DETAILS OF WHERE THE FREEZING LINE SETS UP AND THE TYPE OF PRECIP
THAT FALLS.

[weatherguy425]

Extreme cold, or not, the pattern will remain chilly and unsettled. Both ECMWF and GFS show several shots of colder air (again, not extreme)into the first of the year. Only contributing to an already expansive snow-pack just to our north.

[Comanche]

Just looked at the GFS ensembles for Houston temps out to Dec. 30th. Only a few members indicate any freezing temps at all for Houston. Lowest is 25F on the 23rd, but the median that day is 33F. The trend away from any extreme cold over the next 10 days continues.

You must have done a deal with the devil to keep the freezer out of Houston! The devils chasing you.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0vwTocA6lE

[Tammie]

NWS Norman OK has the front pushing through North Texas Thursday night.

Fxus64 koun 142042 afdoun Area forecast discussion National Weather Service norman ok
242 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 Discussion: Warming trend will commence tomorrow as sfc ridge shifts to the east and west and southwest winds return. This period of warmer weather will likely continue through Thursday with daytime temps approaching 70 degrees across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas by mid-week. This will be accompanied by abundant sunshine and light winds through Tuesday before south winds begin to increase Wednesday. This wind increase will be in response to pres falls in the high plains as our next storm system drops south out near the west coast. Medium range models cont to show strong arctic cold front diving south through the plains by Thursday into Friday. As is usually the case... Models have begun to speed up the timing of the cold front into the southern plains. Front looks to enter northwest Oklahoma Thursday aftn and move south across the remainder of Oklahoma into north Texas Thursday night. So the one thing that is more of a certainty is the end of the warm temps and a return to very cold conditions by late this up- coming week. Confidence is not as high with regards to precipitation. It appears that some wintry precip is likely to occur... But when... Type and amounts are still up in the air. will leave the current precip types alone and take a wait and see approach as any changes at this point would not be much more than a guess and current ones paint the pictuure of change.

[Portastorm]

I said it before, I just don't see any kind of severe cold event happening in Texas. The vast majority of the cold weather goes northern plains to midwest to northeast. There's a reason they generally have rough winters and Texas doesn't. Why do we get all excited when it actually does happen? Because it rarely does happen.

And as kludge noted, the GFS is always onto something big in 10-14 days, cat 5 in the gulf, 83/89 arctic blast, We know it's trash but we hope anyway.

Well, since you appear to have most of the answers ... next time we'll just ask you what's going to happen and ignore the ensembles, the operational model runs, the SST anomalies, and the teleconnections. How's that?

This forum is for enthusiasts and professionals to interact, to speculate, to rejoice or lament, and to discuss the weather. People this week have been reacting not to their own whims or wish-casting but to real computer model scenarios and real scientific data. Now, people are reacting to the very same things which suggest a different scenario. That's how it works.

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile ... back to the weather ... sounds like EWX has some concerns for next weekend here in the Austin area. Snippet below from their afternoon AFD.

THE NEXT COLD FRONTDROPS INTO NORTH TX FRIDAY...AND INTO S TX FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT AGAIN LOOKS FAIRLY SHALLOW BUT POTENT.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. BESIDES THE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL BE POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH TEMPERATURES
AND POPS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST TEXAS.

[PTPatrick]

Looking at the trends to see what weather might be like in coastal MS and I'm starting to wonder if there will be a severe weather event on the NOrthern gulf coast. The precip amounts look pretty steep along the frontal boundary next weekend. Hopefully no tornado outbreak like last year.

[srainhoutx]

I find it interesting that we are beginning to see an all too familiar pattern developing with SW to NE or positive tilted trough with a robust 500mb possible closed cold core low moving E across Northern Mexico into Arizona/New Mewico and Texas and a Coastal surface Low developing offshore of Corpus Christi as well as a noisy sub tropical jet. If I'm not mistaken this will be the 3rd time since just before Thanksgiving we have seen this 'movie'. I believe I'll just wait and see how cold the surface temperatures are next Wednesday into Friday before calling anything a bust. But that's just me.

[Texas Snowman]

Steve Mc is saying that next weekend's storm has a 30/70 chance of being ice (30%) or rain (70%) in the Metroplex. Why? Because the Stat Method says so.

Guess I'm in Grumpyville today since a certain coach is still employed in Central Texas.

But it kind of makes me think that we just all waste our time here on the S2K board.

I mean who knew that weather forecasting boiled down to simply using the "Stat Method"?

If only Harold Taft had known about it years ago.

Or Mississippi State Guy in the days leading up to the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009!

[hriverajr]

He is resigning after the bowl game.

[perk]

I said it before, I just don't see any kind of severe cold event happening in Texas. The vast majority of the cold weather goes northern plains to midwest to northeast. There's a reason they generally have rough winters and Texas doesn't. Why do we get all excited when it actually does happen? Because it rarely does happen.

And as kludge noted, the GFS is always onto something big in 10-14 days, cat 5 in the gulf, 83/89 arctic blast, We know it's trash but we hope anyway.

Well, since you appear to have most of the answers ... next time we'll just ask you what's going to happen and ignore the ensembles, the operational model runs, the SST anomalies, and the teleconnections. How's that?

This forum is for enthusiasts and professionals to interact, to speculate, to rejoice or lament, and to discuss the weather. People this week have been reacting not to their own whims or wish-casting but to real computer model scenarios and real scientific data. Now, people are reacting to the very same things which suggest a different scenario. That's how it works.

I could not have said it better myself.

[perk]

Just looked at the GFS ensembles for Houston temps out to Dec. 30th. Only a few members indicate any freezing temps at all for Houston. Lowest is 25F on the 23rd, but the median that day is 33F. The trend away from any extreme cold over the next 10 days continues.

That's plenty cold enough for me.

[TheProfessor]

Current temperatures in Canada.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Someone a few pages ago was saying to start looking at how cold Canada gets to determine how cold the airmass will be.
I don't know if your supposed use the high or low temperature? but what could -30 in Canada translate hear in Texas?

[vbhoutex]

I find it interesting that we are beginning to see an all too familiar pattern developing with SW to NE or positive tilted trough with a robust 500mb possible closed cold core low moving E across Northern Mexico into Arizona/New Mewico and Texas and a Coastal surface Low developing offshore of Corpus Christi as well as a noisy sub tropical jet. If I'm not mistaken this will be the 3rd time since just before Thanksgiving we have seen this 'movie'. I believe I'll just wait and see how cold the surface temperatures are next Wednesday into Friday before calling anything a bust. But that's just me.

[dhweather]

I said it before, I just don't see any kind of severe cold event happening in Texas. The vast majority of the cold weather goes northern plains to midwest to northeast. There's a reason they generally have rough winters and Texas doesn't. Why do we get all excited when it actually does happen? Because it rarely does happen.

And as kludge noted, the GFS is always onto something big in 10-14 days, cat 5 in the gulf, 83/89 arctic blast, We know it's trash but we hope anyway.

Well, since you appear to have most of the answers ... next time we'll just ask you what's going to happen and ignore the ensembles, the operational model runs, the SST anomalies, and the teleconnections. How's that?

This forum is for enthusiasts and professionals to interact, to speculate, to rejoice or lament, and to discuss the weather. People this week have been reacting not to their own whims or wish-casting but to real computer model scenarios and real scientific data. Now, people are reacting to the very same things which suggest a different scenario. That's how it works.

I don't have most of the answers. I do have climatology, which tells us a lot about what has happened as opposed to what might happen. I don't know that teleconnections mean squat this year, we shouldn't have any cold weather, but the high and very warm water in the Gulf of Alaska has thrown in a wildcard. Hate to sound like debbie downer, but I conversely don't want people worrying about 83/89 events when there's really no significant chance that will happen. As you've said, that's a once in a lifetime cold event. Maybe we get another icing event, hopefully its snow instead. And maybe nothing happens at all. We're in the dreaded 6-9 day range, things will clear up by Tuesday and then real specualtion can begin.

[Portastorm]

I'm watching the 0z GFS op run roll in. My initial thought is if it verifies, the only things we'll need to worry about wrapping will be wrapping our cans of our favorite beverage, with a koozie, to keep them cool because it'll be so warm outside!

Looks like our nemesis Heat Miser drew these up.

[hriverajr]

Highs in the 70's on Friday ouch! (Central Texas)

[Texas Snowman]

Call me skeptical. But I'll believe it when I see it. If memory serves correct, the GFS was trying to bring 50s into Grayson County by the end of this current week. Didn't happen by a long shot.

[TheProfessor]

STORM2K is finally up. Does anyone know what the latest models are suggesting?

[gpsnowman]

Wow. Two days ago we were talking major cold and now koozie temps. What a turn of events. Sure glad the power is back on for Storm2k. Porta, what happened to the Sunday weather update? It can't be good at this point. Darnit darnit darnit.