SIO: AMARA - Tropical Cyclone

[hurricanes1234]

This is our latest invest in the SIO. It has quite some cold cloudtops attached to it.




93S INVEST 131211 1800 7.5S 79.0E SHEM 15 1010

[stormkite]

This invest was forecast to develop and head south.

[hurricanes1234]

South? Sounds interesting...

[stormkite]

South? Sounds interesting...

Here's the steering hurricanes1234 if it does develop then where is do you think its going.?

[Spin]

South? Sounds interesting...

Why not? It is in the southern hemisphere after all.

[stormkite]

South? Sounds interesting...

Typical comment from someone from the Northern Hemisphere.

[jaguarjace]

I hope the remnants of what's left of this system bring a cool change to Perth later next week. This heatwave is awful .

[euro6208]

93S INVEST 131212 0600 7.5S 78.0E SHEM 15 1010

Latest JT best track has winds and pressure steady...

[hurricanes1234]

Yes, I am from the Northern Hemisphere. I don't know anything about SHEM cyclones, this is my first year. So I will find these things interesting, simply because I have no knowledge about them. The first time I tracked storms in the NHEM, I found certain things interesting as well that I am accustomed to now.


Back to 93S: Does anyone think this has a chance at cyclone strength? I don't think so just yet.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S 81.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 131017Z
NOAA-18 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES, PRIMARILY, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 130440Z ASCAT
IMAGE AND A 130636Z OCEANSAT IMAGE REVEAL AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHARP MONSOON TROUGH WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[hurricanes1234]

Way too much shear — 25 knots of shear is enough to rip a fully-fledged cyclone with an eye to the point where the center is a good distance exposed from the convection.

[supercane4867]

93S is a very large system which having problem to consolidate

[stormkite]

I think this will form very soon.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

Indeed, it has potential, barring the shear. Best Track is up to 30 knots.

93S INVEST 131214 1200 10.2S 81.9E SHEM 30 1000

[Alyono]

may be a bit higher based upon satellite data

[euro6208]

93S INVEST 131215 0000 14.3S 81.4E SHEM 30 1000

Winds and Pressure steady...

Meanwhile...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 81.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 81.9E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF TURNING, THAT MAY CONTAIN MORE THAN ONE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE BULK OF THE MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. A 141607Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT CORE WINDS AND 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE PERIPHERY. THIS ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES SOME HIGHER WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT THESE APPEAR ERRONEOUS DUE TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO
40 KNOTS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[stormkite]

Scat not full but shows a 50 knot barb.

[hurricanes1234]

TCFA has been issued. May form soon.

WTXS21 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 77.4E TO 16.4S 72.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 76.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S
81.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 76.5E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION. SSMIS PASSES FROM 151159Z AND 151302Z
INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
SUSPECTED LLCC. POSITIONING HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE AS MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES HAVE POPPED OUT ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND UNRAVELED. CURRENT POSITION PHILOSOPHY IS TO STAY WITH
THE CENTER OF MASS WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN AT 151200Z AND ARE CALLING FOR A 25 KNOT
DISTURBANCE BUT THE MOST RECENT SCAT PASS (OSCAT FROM 150636Z)
INDICATES A 30 KNOT LLCC WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC BUT HAS BEEN DECREASING DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC TO LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW HAS
BEGUN TO PICK UP IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION WITH A CONNECTION INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS MARGINAL. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED SYMMETRY OF THE LLCC AND
IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161500Z.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

2013DEC16 080000 49.2 810.0 +0.0 200.0 48.9 48.7 4.2 0.5T/hour ON OFF -47.06 -50.23 UNIFRM N/A N/A -8.26 -98.55 FCST MET7 48.7

[stormkite]

Don't think this is worth a second look.



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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products