Global model runs discussion

[GrandCaymanDude]

I got strong winds and heavy rain today with the convection over the Western Caribbean. Wind gusts were easily 45 to 55 mph as I was walking home. The wind almost blew me off the sidewalk. Nastiest squall all season so far. The wind is a lot calmer now, but it was really nasty earlier. We have had 3 squalls today each progressively windier.

[cycloneye]

I got strong winds and heavy rain today with the convection over the Western Caribbean. Wind gusts were easily 45 to 55 mph as I was walking home. The wind almost blew me off the sidewalk. Nastiest squall all season so far. The wind is a lot calmer now, but it was really nasty earlier. We have had 3 squalls today each progressively windier.

Welcome to Storm2k. To let you know that we have a thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum dedicated for the Caribbean and Central America where you can post about the daily weather in your area.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows a low around the area the NAVGEM has it at 144 hours but not as strong:

[GrandCaymanDude]

I got strong winds and heavy rain today with the convection over the Western Caribbean. Wind gusts were easily 45 to 55 mph as I was walking home. The wind almost blew me off the sidewalk. Nastiest squall all season so far. The wind is a lot calmer now, but it was really nasty earlier. We have had 3 squalls today each progressively windier.

Welcome to Storm2k. To let you know that we have a thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum dedicated for the Caribbean and Central America where you can post about the daily weather in your area.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

Thank you very much!! Yes I am watching all these models. Still loving the ocean here because things are relatively calm. But models are always fascinating to me.

[Hurricaneman]

The long range of the 0zGFS is a little weird with it moving west then redeveloping it about 10 degrees farther east which may be convective feedback, the important part is that it starts developing around 150hrs north of South America and isn't the central Atlantic wave but the one behind it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Here is an interesting articule about why the ECMWF is the #1 global model surpassing the GFS. The debate of which model is the best rages on.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _blog.html

[Hurricane Alexis]

GFS showing something in the central gulf in about 5 days. Not sure if it's tropical or frontal.

[hurricanes1234]

GFS showing something in the central gulf in about 5 days. Not sure if it's tropical or frontal.

I'd suspect it's frontal, since the season will be over in a matter of days, and activity in the Gulf of Mexico has finished since September. I could be wrong, though.

[AnnularCane]

I'm guessing what you're talking about is the beginnings of the Thanksgiving nor'easter or whatever it will be. Pretty sure it will be frontal.

[supercane4867]

Merry Christmas from the CMC

[Duddy]

Merry Christmas from the CMC

Wait, what?

[Frank2]

Today's GFS does show a low of some sort crossing the southern Gulf and Florida over the next 5 days, but the upper winds are fairly strong overhead (30 knots) so no doubt nothing tropical, though the 80 degree isotherm is still in our local marine area...

[supercane4867]

CMC just never give up

[HurricaneTracker2031]

I See a Possible Snow Storm off shore of near Novia Scotia on the GFS 06Z UTC

[Cyclenall]

I See a Possible Snow Storm off shore of near Novia Scotia on the GFS 06Z UTC

There is a snowstorm there and in Newfoundland every other day this winter. Every model has been showing an insane train of storms for them since winter began.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

I See a Possible Snow Storm off shore of near Novia Scotia on the GFS 06Z UTC

There is a snowstorm there and in Newfoundland every other day this winter. Every model has been showing an insane train of storms for them since winter began.

Okay. Yes.

[cycloneye]

CMC just never give up

http://i.imgur.com/SZ9ojak.png

It needs a major upgrade.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Interesting Model Run. It takes the 948mb Low near Europe and separates it into a new system by 84 hrs on 12Z run 1/5/14.

1009mb Low Pressure near 35N 20W on JAN 8 2014 According to NAVGEM



This scenario is played out with the GFS and NAVGEM. This "possible system" if it forms at all will be very short lived and will impact North Africa.

Full Model Run: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014010512/navgem_mslp_wind_atl.html
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014010512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl.html


POST DISCLAIMER:
This post in this forum is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Interesting GFS Model Run

It shows Low 989mb Closed hitting east coast. hmmm...



What you think?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, that is the storm system which will originate from the western GOM early on Tuesday and trak along the Northern Gulf coast d then move off the SE U.S. coast by early Thursday. A lot will depend upon how close the system will be near the coastofthe mid-Atlantic and Northeast by late this week. We may be looking at a significant winter storm late this week over the mid-Atlantic or Northeast.