Florida Weather

[NDG]

Happy Thanksgiving northjaxpro, fall finally arrived to central and southern FL, actually more like winter. I am actually in Miami this morning, with a temp of 52, just checked back at my neighborhood in north Orlando it dropped to 37 degrees this morning, we had not dropped below 50 degrees at all before this event, talking about going to an extreme, lol.
I'll be enjoying low 70s here in Miami today while the locals here I am sure they will be sporting their leather & fur jackets all day long, lol.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning NDG. Yeah it is a cold one here this morning for sure. It bottomed out at 29.7 degrees at my locale. Now it is up to 36.6 degrees under bright sunshine to warm it up only to the mid 50s for today here.

Have a great Thanksgiving down in Miami today.

[Ntxw]

Happy Thanksgiving y'all down in Florida! What wxman57 would give to be in SFL with you NDG...still too cold for his taste but better than where he is now

[northjaxpro]

Well. it is safe to assume that no freezes will be coming within the next 7-10 days as the polar jet is diving through the Western U.S. and through the Plains, while a stout upper level Ridge is setting up over our region . This will keep any cold intrusions from entering the peninsula for the time being. So, it looks as if above normal temps will be in store for the peninsula at least through the middle of this month.

So enjoy the respite from winter for now folks. We will wait to see if and when the AO or NAO turns negative and the impacts on the Eastern U.S. when the pattern changes.

[HURRICANELONNY]

National Weather Service Miami Florida 341 PM EST Wednesday Dec 4 2013 Discussion...as Arctic air invades the north central states, model consensus shows this frigid airmass plunging south into Texas before being deflected northeast, as a ridge of high pressure builds over South Florida. In other words, this airmass will have no effect on South Florida weather. So while much of the central and eastern U.S. Will be dealing with winter's wrath, South Florida will remain warm...with temperatures actually above seasonal averages. Highs each day will reach into the lower to middle 80s with lows around 70f East Coast to the 60s elsewhere. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s. Rain chances are negligible as deep layered mean moisture will remain limited.

agreed. for a couple of days it looked like models were going neg. for nao/ao but models changed again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

[SouthFloridian92]

National Weather Service Miami Florida 341 PM EST Wednesday Dec 4 2013 Discussion...as Arctic air invades the north central states, model consensus shows this frigid airmass plunging south into Texas before being deflected northeast, as a ridge of high pressure builds over South Florida. In other words, this airmass will have no effect on South Florida weather. So while much of the central and eastern U.S. Will be dealing with winter's wrath, South Florida will remain warm...with temperatures actually above seasonal averages. Highs each day will reach into the lower to middle 80s with lows around 70f East Coast to the 60s elsewhere. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s. Rain chances are negligible as deep layered mean moisture will remain limited.

agreed. for a couple of days it looked like models were going neg. for nao/ao but models changed again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

Of course! This would only happen down here in south FL.

Sigh...

[gatorcane]

7-day forecast for my area. Not bad for December...maybe I'll hit the beach this weekend

[NDG]

With plenty of sun and temps in the mid 80s in the Orlando area I am going to hit the Springs, best time in the year to go.

What a difference a few years make, 3 years ago we were dealing with the coldest December ever on the Peninsula.

[HURAKAN]

warm

[gatorcane]

It's good to be in Florida looking at current U.S. temperatures. No end in sight with the pattern we are in.

[TheStormExpert]

Still would not mind at all having the cool weather like we had on Thanksgiving. IMO this pattern better change soon, last December was just like this!

[SouthFloridian92]

This warm weather sucks! I just want it to get cold already...

[TheStormExpert]

This warm weather sucks! I just want it to get cold already...

Apparently having Cool/Cold weather for the holidays here in S. Florida is too much to ask for these days. Last December was no different than this December so far.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it appears you all down in the central and southern peninsula will stay warm at least until early next week.

Here in Jax, at least we will temporarily get back to near seasonal averages starting tomorrow. The stubborn mean layer Ridge, which has held firm for well over a week over the Florida peninsula gets shunted just enough to allow a cold front to come through our area. This will allow a northeasterly flow to come into my area and knock our max temps back ino the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. The northeast pressure gradient may increase here later Wednesday into Thursday as High Pressure builds in from the Mid Atlantic region and another coastal trough develops offshore the SE GA and NE FL coast. Again, this may bring showers to the coastal areas late Wed. into Thursday.

The current front moving into North Florida today and tonight will stall out across the south-central peninsula by tomorrow morning, paralleling the west-southwest upper level flow pattern. Warm temps will continue for everyone in the southern peninsula right into at least early next week.

Another storm system will move out of the Lower Mississippi Valley region and move across the SE U.S. this weekend. This will increase the rain chances across the peninsula this weekend with a moist south-southwest flow in place ahead of that system. Could see significant rain in some areas this weekend. A cold front will move through on Sunday across the northern peninsula. It appears looking at the models that there should be enough upper level support to shunt the mean layer Ridge just enough to the south and east to allow the front for early next week to push south through the peninsula.

Cooler and more seasonable weather should hopefully come to most in the peninsula in the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame for next week. This cool down will very likely be brief, as has been the trend so far this winter season in the peninsula. However, I emphasize the cool down will only get us closer to seasonable average levels only. Extreme cold intrusions are still not being indicated in the long range by the models anytime soon. There are currently no signs of a -NAO or -AO pattern change to bring the peninusula any true polar air for the time being.

[gatorcane]

Extended forecast snippet by NWS Miami. Looks like another good beach weekend

THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BE RUNNING IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THESE LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE HIGHS WILL ALSO BE RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH
IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE HEAT INDEX COULD EVEN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
THIS WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[northjaxpro]

Well, it remains tranquil here across the peninsula. The only exception was the severe weather that produced the tornado in the Palm Coast area a few days ago ahead of the last cold front to past through this region. Persistent ridging across the SW North Atlantic basin extending over the Florida peninsula has maintained itself throughout most of the Fall season, with the exception of the brief cooldown this past Thanksgiving and this week across the northern Florida region.

Checking the long range models out 10 days from now, barring any drastic changes , I can confidently say that this current pattern will hold right into New Year's Day and possibly longer. The 500 mb heights anomalies out 10 days continues to indicate mean layer ridging persisting across the peninsula. Blocking looks to continue in the vicinity of Alaska, but no indications a +PNA , or the Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation going negative up at least into the first week of January. Thus, the peninsula will stay protected from any major cold outbreaks.

Here at my locale so far this Fall/Winter 2013-14 season, only one freeze has occured, whch was 29.7 degrees on Thanksgiving morning. This is shaping up to be warmer than last season. This precise time a year ago, I measured 4 total days that had below freezing temps at my location. We are just now approaching the time of the winter solstice, so we have a ways to go til we get to the heart of winter. We will see how all this shakes down, but Old Man Winter for the most part continues to stay away from most areas of the peninsula..

This morning, it did get to 33.4 degrees, just missing a freeze, but so far is the coldest reading seen this month to this point. Saw some scattered frost all across my locale earlier today. The cool High Pressure dome over the SE U.S. that bought us this brief cool spell this week will exit the stage and the return flow will settle in across the region beginning tonight and warm conditions return for the next several days across the northern peninsula. Max temps wll be approaching near record levels going into this weekend, especially on Sunday. A cool front will approach the panhandle later on Sunday, and rain and thunderstorms will come into that part of the state. Rain will move though the rest of North Florida late Sunday into Monday. The front will slide through the Jax area during Monday and will bring our temps back to only near seasonal averages for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Again, because of the blocking pattern holding firm over most of the peninsula, the front will likely stall out across the central or south central peninsula by Christmas Eve.

[gatorcane]

northjaxpro good summary. Taking a look at the 72 hours 18Z GFS 500MB vort graphic as an example, we can see that stubborn ridge sitting over the SW Atlantic which has been the story for this fall so far and the general lack of cold air for the FL peninsula, especially the Southern peninsula.

This particular ridge is oriented a bit more SW to NE and extends into the Western Atlantic which means warmer than normal for much of the Eastern half of the CONUS this weekend - not just Florida:

[HURRICANELONNY]

There is possibly some better news next year. If the models are accurate that far out. The NAO/AO is projected to atleast go neg. come 2014. But i've seen this before and it flip-flops. Have to wait and see. But it's a start.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

[Scorpion]

This feels like the warmest December I've experienced. Not complaining though.

[NDG]

Today in central FL might have been the last 80+ deg F wx for a while, some pattern change is forecasted with the NAO and AO forecasted to go slightly negative at least with PNA to go positive, so highs in the 60s and 70s for next 7-10 days most likely, it is going to feel cooler than what it really will be because of how warm we have been.