ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The PDO remains in negative and that will diminish the chance for El Nino to come anytime soon. Latest data is at -87

[hurricanes1234]

The PDO remains in negative and that will diminish the chance for El Nino to come anytime soon. Latest data is at -87

But by summer next year, would that be enough time for it to change?

[cycloneye]

The PDO remains in negative and that will diminish the chance for El Nino to come anytime soon. Latest data is at -87

But by summer next year, would that be enough time for it to change?

Mother nature is going to dictate what will occur by next summer with ENSO but we can have some clues about how the pattern is shaping up with the PDO,AO etc. Let's see how the different factors align in the next few months and we will have a much better idea about things will be by summer. What is amazing would be another year without El Nino and that would be 4 years in a row.

[dexterlabio]

I thought there'll be a better prediction on ENSO by NHem Spring? Anyway the chance of EN is increasing as more years passed by with none.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SST's over the CPAC and WPAC are increasing. Probably a Modoki next year.

Usually here on December, it is dry and cool but it is currently dry and hot! I find it unusual in the Philippines...

[dexterlabio]

^Well it's cold and dry up here in Manila, especially in the midnight hours. Maybe the northeast monsoon has yet to dig further south.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/16/13 update

Nino 3.4 cooled down to dead Neutral at 0.0C. The PDO continues in negative at -87.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[hurricanes1234]

They did say that there's an increasing possibility for El Niño, which would put the Atlantic in another year of suppressed development. I wonder what next year's EPAC season will be like, can't wait until the seasonal forecasts are released.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Everybody is so sure we're going to see an El Nino, but in my opinion (not sure how much that's worth?), I wouldn't be so sold on it. Several have referenced the warm sub-surface...that's been there for 2 years now. Some have noted the MJO and how an expected pulse would push us over the edge...models have trended less bullish and the MJO should be of little consequence now. The PDO remains firmly negative and the SOI remains positive, with the former acting as a deterrent to a long-lasting and strong El Nino and the latter showing no trend towards one. For 2 straight years now, models have been predicting a moderate El Nino. It didn't materialize in 2012 and it didn't materialize this year; what makes us so sure they're actually going to be right this time?

[hurricanes1234]

Everybody is so sure we're going to see an El Nino, but in my opinion (not sure how much that's worth?), I wouldn't be so sold on it. Several have referenced the warm sub-surface...that's been there for 2 years now. Some have noted the MJO and how an expected pulse would push us over the edge...models have trended less bullish and the MJO should be of little consequence now. The PDO remains firmly negative and the SOI remains positive, with the former acting as a deterrent to a long-lasting and strong El Nino and the latter showing no trend towards one. For 2 straight years now, models have been predicting a moderate El Nino. It didn't materialize in 2012 and it didn't materialize this year; what makes us so sure they're actually going to be right this time?

Basically each year without it increases the chances of it happening the following year.

[cycloneye]

PDO November update at -11

Wow,what a downward update as it went from -87 in October to -11. Certainly is looks like El Nino is more closer to become a reality according to this new PDO update. We have to watch the next couple of month updates to see if this trend downwards continues and turns positive or it gets more negative again.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[tolakram]

Everybody is so sure we're going to see an El Nino, but in my opinion (not sure how much that's worth?), I wouldn't be so sold on it. Several have referenced the warm sub-surface...that's been there for 2 years now. Some have noted the MJO and how an expected pulse would push us over the edge...models have trended less bullish and the MJO should be of little consequence now. The PDO remains firmly negative and the SOI remains positive, with the former acting as a deterrent to a long-lasting and strong El Nino and the latter showing no trend towards one. For 2 straight years now, models have been predicting a moderate El Nino. It didn't materialize in 2012 and it didn't materialize this year; what makes us so sure they're actually going to be right this time?

Basically each year without it increases the chances of it happening the following year.

No, that's a common fallacy IMO. The odds are the same each year unless there is some indicator I don't know about that points to an increased chance. You can look at historic data and make assumptions that something could happen, and many times this will work out, but the actual odds of an el Nino happening next year are unknown. You will note that I have issues with "hindcasting" for the same reason.

[hurricanes1234]

Sorry about the mix-up. I was used to that common theory that said that each year without an El Niño increased the chances of one the following year. But I think next year will have an El Niño which might suppress the Atlantic once more?

[dexterlabio]

We all have our own bias so we might just be inclined to think that El Nino is coming or not. Also, the transition to EN or LN usually occurs during NHem Summer isn't it? So all we can say at this early are speculations.

[hurricanetrack]

I am of the opinion, based on pure observation and logic, that the cold PDO and the absence of El Nino over the past several years has helped to dry out the atmosphere just enough to be a major cause of the downturn in activity. Thus, the weak El Nino that I believe we will see, coupled with a warming PDO signal, may add just enough water vapor back to the atmosphere so that we see an increase in Atlantic and east Pacific hurricane activity once again.

And...it may result in more tropical cyclones globally too. We shall see. Obviously, if there are more tropical cyclones next year globally, especially in the Atlantic, this does not mean that I was necessarily correct in my theory but it at least makes some sense to me to think that a colder Pacific acts like a giant dehumidifier and well, we have seen the results of such....

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It can increase [like 2004] the cyclonic activity of all the basins in the North Hemisphere.

[Cyclenall]

Everybody is so sure we're going to see an El Nino, but in my opinion (not sure how much that's worth?), I wouldn't be so sold on it. Several have referenced the warm sub-surface...that's been there for 2 years now. Some have noted the MJO and how an expected pulse would push us over the edge...models have trended less bullish and the MJO should be of little consequence now. The PDO remains firmly negative and the SOI remains positive, with the former acting as a deterrent to a long-lasting and strong El Nino and the latter showing no trend towards one. For 2 straight years now, models have been predicting a moderate El Nino. It didn't materialize in 2012 and it didn't materialize this year; what makes us so sure they're actually going to be right this time?

Basically each year without it increases the chances of it happening the following year.

No, that's a common fallacy IMO. The odds are the same each year unless there is some indicator I don't know about that points to an increased chance. You can look at historic data and make assumptions that something could happen, and many times this will work out, but the actual odds of an el Nino happening next year are unknown. You will note that I have issues with "hindcasting" for the same reason.

I agree, Equilibrium doesn't apply to the ENSO signal I don't think so the chances remain the same. Equilibrium failed for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, it should have easily been the worst hurricane season of all time in 90% of areas we measure for how active a season is. Instead, exact opposite. The wrench must be related to no El Nino's for a very long time.

But I think next year will have an El Niño which might suppress the Atlantic once more?

Think different, I would bet heavy that if there is an El Nino, the ACE and overall activity in the Atlantic will be quintuple that or above that of 2013's stats. El Nino is way overrated for shutting down ATL, ironically the absence of one might shut the ATL down more so than an actual Nino. So if there is no El Nino, I might actually call for the slowest ATL season of all time and try that out instead of rely on Equilibrium.

I am of the opinion, based on pure observation and logic, that the cold PDO and the absence of El Nino over the past several years has helped to dry out the atmosphere just enough to be a major cause of the downturn in activity. Thus, the weak El Nino that I believe we will see, coupled with a warming PDO signal, may add just enough water vapor back to the atmosphere so that we see an increase in Atlantic and east Pacific hurricane activity once again.

So did you come to that idea by yourself or did you agree with user Nwtx which is where I first heard this idea on the Internet? Maybe Nwtx can tell us if he heard it from someone else as well.

[Ntxw]

So did you come to that idea by yourself or did you agree with user Nwtx which is where I first heard this idea on the Internet? Maybe Nwtx can tell us if he heard it from someone else as well.

I'm sure someone with bigger noodles have said something but as far as I know I haven't seen. I know someone mentioned that when a good El Nino flips to a good La Nina we tend to get big seasons in the Atlantic so I just took that idea and went a little further in the opposite direction, not much research done on it. Andrew92 used to do posts about how the seasons after a modoki (which are often followed by La Nina) tends to make big ones. Weather likes to happen when there is an exchange in air masses vs stagnant air.

It's far too early to predict any kind of ENSO state at this point. It will be early spring at the latest, water temps are not the same now as they are in the summer, a warm pool now may be cool then if it doesn't change.

We shouldn't put too much emphasis on ENSO. What happens atmospherically is equally as important. ENSO has a good influence when it is strong on the atmosphere thus we like to use it, but if it's not hooked up it's not that good. Saying El Nino will kill the season, or neutral/nina will bust it open isn't looking at the entire picture.

[hurricanetrack]

I figured Occam's razor was good enough for me on the issue of El Nino and the downturn in global activity. I looked for the largest, singular and most simple explanation and the glaring one was the cold Pacific overall. Since it's the largest basin on earth, I figured it must act like a giant moisturizer when warmer than normal and a dehumidifier when colder than normal. We've had no El Ninos since 2009 and coincidentally the Atlantic has struggled big time. Is there a connection? I haven't the first shred of evidence to support it but Occam's razor suggests I do not need it. Logic and nothing more. As I said, even if we get an El Nino AND the Atlantic has an ACE of 140 this coming season that does not prove I was right, only adds some level of credibility perhaps to the theory.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be treated as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, it the year after a Modoki is only a small part of the research I had done before. The big years to consistently watch for major hurricanes in the US are the ones that occur two years after the last normal El Nino season.

That said, I have some nagging concerns for the next few years. I will focus only on 2014 for now, but I am going to assume here that 2014 is an El Nino of some sort. Since 1960, only four El Nino events have occurred after a year with no US hurricanes: the 1963 Modoki, the 1982-83 event, the long 1991-94 event, and 2002. Only 1982 and 1994 did not see a hurricane reach the US, but both years had a couple of very close calls.

In 1963, Cindy was a minimal hurricane that hit the upper Texas coast, while Ginny looped erratically for several days off the East Coast before eventually reaching Nova Scotia.

1982 was unusual: an El Nino with no US hurricanes immediately after the US got lucky in 1981. That said, Alberto was a hurricane before abruptly dissipating upon reaching Florida, and Chris simply ran out of time before reaching the Texas-Louisiana border to become a hurricane. But that event lasted through at least half of the 1983 season, during which time Alicia hit. Barry also hit extreme northern Mexico and darn near was another US hurricane.

1991 saw Bob hit New England and that was all. I have seen conflicting data that that year was a Modoki, which would support Andrew hitting Florida and Louisiana as hard as it did. However MEI values were always near +1.000 from 1991 through 1994, indicative of some sort of El Nino that whole time. Emily also grazed the Outer Banks in 1993. Alberto just ran out of time in 1994, but Gordon was very close to a North Carolina landfall as a hurricane.

Finally, lots of weak tropical storms hit the US in 2002, culminating with the stronger Isidore for Louisiana and Mississippi, and then Hurricane Lili a week later a short distance to the west.

Only Alicia, Andrew, and Emily hit as majors. Bob and Lili were pretty close though.

Based upon this, my gut tells me if next year is an El Nino - normal or Modoki - that the western Gulf and Northeast are the most likely areas for impact. I lean in particular toward the western Gulf, simply because more significant storms have hit there in El Nino years following a year with no US hurricanes.

Or could we see another one of those long lasting events? We will have to wait and see.

-Andrew92

PS Typing from my phone, I apologize for any typos.