Hurricane Isabel: forecast two

[JetMaxx]

Initial position:
THU SEP 11
11 p.m...21.6N - 55.7W....140 KTS

Forecast:
FRI SEP 12
11 a.m...21.6N - 57.5W....140 KTS
11 p.m...21.8N - 59.5W....140 KTS

SAT SEP 13
11 a.m...22.0N - 61.3W....130 KTS
11 p.m...22.3N - 63.1W....120 KTS

SUN SEP 14
11 a.m...22.6N - 65.0W....115 KTS
11 p.m...23.0N - 67.0W....115 KTS

MON SEP 15
11 a.m...23.4N - 68.7W....120 KTS
11 p.m...23.8N - 70.5W....120 KTS

TUE SEP 16
11 a.m...24.3N - 72.0W....120 KTS
11 p.m...24.8N - 73.5W....120 KTS


Extended Forecast:

WED SEP 17
11 a.m...25.2N - 75.0W....120 KTS
11 p.m...25.6N - 76.5W....120 KTS

THU SEP 18
11 a.m...26.0N - 77.8W....120 KTS
11 p.m...26.5N - 79.0W....120 KTS

[janswizard]

I hope you're wrong, Perry. You're Sept 18 pm forecast puts it at my front door. I'm at 27.28N 80.29W

[Anonymous]

Same here, I am in west palm.

[JetMaxx]

Folks, I hope I'm wrong too. My reasoning was utilizing the southern side of the model spread...due in part to my belief the ridge driving Isabel westward is stronger than model data is indicating. Also, IMO the extreme intensity of hurricane Isabel will serve to reinforce the ridge and keep the storm on a more southerly course.

Finally, climatology played a role in my analysis/ forecast. Mid September is when major hurricanes are most likely to occur in southeast Florida. I really haven't deviated much from forecast number one which I posted two evenings ago....only slower and slightly farther north. I believe tonight's ECMWF run was flawed with bad data....and the three previous runs more indicative of the true strength of the subtropical ridge to Isabel's north.

[ameriwx2003]

Perry.. yes.. this is going to be an interesting and look week ahead. Also DT had a good discussion tonight and brought up some good points also about the EURO as well:):)

[paradoxsixnine]

I'm in North Carolina and I wish I could get the feeling that we might feel some remnant of Isabel....since I've been hanging out on this board I'm becoming an addict.

[Tommedic]

Perry... I understand your reasoning, but I think we will see a weakness to North, maybe caused by ex-Henri or other factors and well see a more northerly component. My concern is that it will be one that brings it into upper SC or SE NC.

[JetMaxx]

Tom, I may be proven wrong, but believe the remnant low of Henri will move inland and dissapate in the next 36-48 hours.....if it does, that weakness won't be there in 3-5 days....why I'm sure NHC is taking a prudent middle of the road route on their 120 hour forecast track.

My forecast isn't far south of the NHC forecast.
Just as two evenings ago, I'm basically following the LBAR solution which seems to work well with intense hurricanes south of 25 N.

One statement from chief meteorologist Ken Cook was very interesting this evening....he's a 24 year veteran at WAGA-TV here in Atlanta; and was a NWS WCM at the Atlanta WSFO before that...very well respected meteorologist....one of the best I've ever met. He believes Isabel may be one of the most difficult hurricanes to forecast in recent years...due to the extreme intensity along with model indications of the steering currents collapsing in 4-5 days.

I'm probably insane for posting a seven day analysis/ forecast...but I like a challenge -- and this hurricane appears to be an ultimate challenge to all hurricane forecasters.

[vbhoutex]

Perry, I too hope you are wrong. I hope we are all wrong!!! I have not found anyone I know that thinks Isabel will not do a direct strike on the US. The only differences I am seeing are the landfall location. Ask Ticka what I told her 4 days ago about landfall. I told her WPB or South. I have not wavered from that yet. My reasoning is the same as yours. I think the ridge is stronger than and will stay stronger than progged. Isabel is definitely a "make your own weather cane" IMO and I DO NOT LIKE THE PROSPECTS OF THAT!!

[Toni - 574]

Perry, I too hope you are wrong. I hope we are all wrong!!! I have not found anyone I know that thinks Isabel will not do a direct strike on the US. The only differences I am seeing are the landfall location. Ask Ticka what I told her 4 days ago about landfall. I told her WPB or South. I have not wavered from that yet. My reasoning is the same as yours. I think the ridge is stronger than and will stay stronger than progged. Isabel is definitely a "make your own weather cane" IMO and I DO NOT LIKE THE PROSPECTS OF THAT!!

I have been quiet for days now and just reading everyones post, trying to draw my own conclusion as to what attitude fits the best here. Have to say that I agree with a lot that you have said. Let's bottom line it here with the north thing. The way I see it, the more west she gets the sharper of a north turn she is going to have to make, ( and that is based off the fact that there would even be a turn) At first I did not buy into the thought of Isabel heading across the state of Florida, however, I am beginning to change my mind each day. At this point I see nothing that will make her change her direction and miss the coast. Any residents from Florida to the residents on up the east coast need to keep a very close eye for Isabel.

[AussieMark]

I think North Carolina definately don't want this one after

1996 - Fran & Bertha
1998 - Bonnie
1999 - Dennis & Floyd

Yes i know it has been 5 years since Floyd but i think North Carolina had as many devastating hurricanes in that period than some other regions receive in a decade.

[Deenac813]

Yikes! I really hope you are wrong! no offense! LOL! That brings this monster right to my doorstep!

Deena

[bosag]

[quote="Toni - 574"][quote="vbhoutex"]Perry, I too hope you are wrong. I hope we are all wrong!!! I have not found anyone I know that thinks Isabel will not do a direct strike on the US. The only differences I am seeing are the landfall location. Ask Ticka what I told her 4 days ago about landfall. I told her WPB or South. I have not wavered from that yet. My reasoning is the same as yours. I think the ridge is stronger than and will stay stronger than progged. Isabel is definitely a "make your own weather cane" IMO and I DO NOT LIKE THE PROSPECTS OF THAT!![/quote]

I have been quiet for days now and just reading everyones post, trying to draw my own conclusion as to what attitude fits the best here. Have to say that I agree with a lot that you have said. Let's bottom line it here with the north thing. The way I see it, the more west she gets the sharper of a north turn she is going to have to make, ( and that is based off the fact that there would even be a turn) At first I did not buy into the thought of Isabel heading across the state of Florida, however, I am beginning to change my mind each day. At this point I see nothing that will make her change her direction and miss the coast. Any residents from Florida to the residents on up the east coast need to keep a very close eye for Isabel.[/quote] PLEASE DONT SAY WPB!!!. Of course my dh has to say "What are the chances of it hitting here (jupiter).Oh boy :o

Barb in Jupiter Forgive me I dont know how to quote:)

[JCT777]

You might be right, Perry. It is too early to say exactly who along the U.S coast will get the brunt of Isabel - if anybody! I see good reasoning in a more southerly route for Isabel (and a possible FL landfall), but I see equally good reasoning in a Carolina coast landfall. This may not become clear until Monday or Tuesday of next week.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes.. the UKMET has the track heading toward Florida before it peels off:):) and its alot quicker then the other models.. we shall see

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

[rainydaze]

Perry,

I respect the fact that you are brave enough to take a
stab at a long range forecast. Unfortunetly, I am a
stair step above your Sept 18 forecast at 27.5 80.0 (WPB),
so I hope you will forgive me when I say :

I HOPE YOU ARE WRONG!!!!!

LOL