Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Plotted a Meteogram for my brother in Rapid City, SD based off the GFS long range.

LOL, a balmy high of -30F on 1/4.

I was curious so I plotted it myself. Note that the final time point on the graphic is 6am on the 4th.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/rapgfs12zdec19.gif

Yes, that is exactly what I got, except my times were off a tad. I was 6 hours out in front.

Still frigid.

[wxman57]

Yes, that is exactly what I got, except my times were off a tad. I was 6 hours out in front.

Still frigid.

Check your initial time on the "Converted Data" tab. It should be "12/27/2013 6:00:00 AM". That time is in Central time, not UTC.

[weatherdude1108]

The CPC today predicts normal to above normal temperatures for most of Texas in the 8-14 day outlook, with the exception of the northern portion of Texas (Dallas to Panhandle region) below normal.
http://imageshack.us/a/img593/7991/lx8.gif
http://imageshack.us/a/img809/2821/tdw.gif

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU DECEMBER 12 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 18 - 22 2013

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. A STRONG RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A TROUGH
PREDICTED TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS, BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTEND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHILE
IN THE ECMWF AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA ENSEMBLE MEANS, A WEAKER TROUGH IS FORECAST
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE GEFS MEANS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND OF
MODEL FORECASTS OF THE 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH BELOW NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER, THE
EASTERN GULF COAST AND FLORIDA, UNDER ABOVE NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, UNDER THE TROUGH. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE INDICATED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE WITH NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THERE IS AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN ALASKAN. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE
PREDICTED STORM TRACK, AS WELL AS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, OREGON AND NEVADA.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND
10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND AMONG THE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 20 - 26 2013

FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD FORECAST, ON AVERAGE MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT THE TROUGH
OVER THE CONUS TO DEEPEN AND PROGRESS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. OVERALL, THE PREDICTED 8-14 DAY CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, THOUGH THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS AMPLIFIED, AND THE TROUGH
AXIS HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS
FORECAST FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH CHANGES RELATED TO SMALL VARIATIONS IN PREDICTED
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE CONUS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER
AND THE GULF COAST AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HAS FALLEN IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MOST LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN WEEK 2, EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.

THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS, EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDS FURTHER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION COVER A LARGER AREA OF THE WEST IN
WEEK 2.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND AMONG THE TOOLS.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

Looks like this was pretty accurate.

[Comanche]

Anyone get a look at the euro extended? Any hint's on what the GFS has to start Jan? PV invasion?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro had the EPO going more negative than the GFS... into the -300 territory.

[DonWrk]

If it were to be colder during this rain event, as in cold enough to snow, would the precip amounts be a lot less? Seems like I always think man this would be an epic winter storm if it was just a little colder during these big amount cold rain events.

[wxman57]

Anyone get a look at the euro extended? Any hint's on what the GFS has to start Jan? PV invasion?

16-day Euro ensembles 2m temp anomaly don't show anything major coming down the plains in early January. In fact, they indicate temps 8-15C above normal across Texas by the 300hr mark. GFS ensembles indicate a light freeze in the Dallas area for the end of December but nothing extreme by Jan 4th. Note that the ensemble members indicate a low between 15F and 50F for January 4th. Quite a range!

[Stormcenter]

Can we just give it up on these "long range models"......we've been burned so many times it's not even funny anymore. Instead of becoming more reliable they seem to be getting worse. IMO

[Kludge]

12Z Euro is only in through 138hrs on my workstation. Should be fully in within the next 30 min. Ensembles won't be in fully for another 60-90 min. I do agree that the general pattern over the coming weeks might be conducive to the transport of cold Arctic air southward toward Texas by the end of the month and into the first week or so in January. Too soon to believe any model run about late December, though.

I don't mean to be a humbug here (and I do love the cold when accompanied by precip), but when I logged in today (Stormk@K was alive!! ) I thought that the board was replaying messages from 2 weeks ago. Fool me once, GFS/EURO...

And I agree with the previous DT and JB "sky is falling in 14 days" comments. I love reading their stuff, but if you say everyday that a major weather event will happen in 14 days, then when an event ever happens you can say "see, I told you so 2 weeks ago". I seriously think that all models that are publicly available should be labeled "for entertainment purposes only" in any projection past 10 days (max). All that said... it is fun to dream.

[Red Raider fan]

And theres the heat miser raining on our parade, reading of potential winter weather here by the week of new years and then he chimes in with his HOT WEATHER, hehe

[Red Raider fan]

AGREED KLUDGE

[Red Raider fan]

WXMAN57 sure knowes how to burst ones bubble on winter weather

[Comanche]

One question about that two-week ago parade of freeze in the models; did they show the strato doing what the GFS is showing now, or was it based purely on ridging pushing up, dislodging the air?

[dhweather]

I'll be happy with copious amounts of rain.

[TheProfessor]

It's a good thing this storm isn't going to be an ice storm because it would probably be a record breaking one if it happened with the current qpf that the NWS is predicting.

[KatDaddy]

I learned many many years ago to not get excited by long range models. I remember many times getting my hopes up for a Winter weather event along the Upper TX Coast only to be dissapointed with the outcome.

[katheria]

hate to say it but im with Wxman57 for the rest of this year, (next year will be a different story )
we are still trying to clean up after the Ice storm, and do not want to have to repeat all this work again this year...

looks like the farmers almanacs both of them got this one pretty correct...

Dec 15-19: Sunny; cool, then warm; Dec 20-25: Snow north, rain south, then sunny, cold;

16th-19th. Wet New Mexico to Arkansas and Louisiana.

not sure how exactly they come up with their forecasts, would be interesting to find out. but its a secret

we will see

Jan:
8th-11th. Heavy rain or wintry mix.
12th-15th. Storm from Gulf of Mexico brings moderate rain and snow for eastern Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Frigid air brings significant freeze as far as south Texas.

[Portastorm]

And I had such high hopes for you, katheria.

[katheria]

:uarrow:

And I had such high hopes for you, katheria.

ok make ya a deal..come finish cleaning up the 1/2 acre lot and fix my roof and ill come back to the right side LOL

[katheria]

Oh the FWD folks have posted their SKYWARN training schedule for 2014:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/skywarnsch.php?file=sptrsch

thanks dh,

been a couple of years since i have been, think ill go for a refresher...
and a nice little 5 min walk to the garland one