Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Can we just give it up on these "long range models"......we've been burned so many times it's not even funny anymore. Instead of becoming more reliable they seem to be getting worse. IMO

Lets be honest this will never happen. People come to this board and many others to see unusual weather and learn how they happen. If one was being truthful they won't say they came to read about how it's going to be seasonal and 70 all the time, we all love a little fantasy. We're all smart enough to know that all things posted long range is for discussion, speculation, and education.

[gboudx]

I'm here for the chips and beer.

Katharia I feel for you with the damage. We lucked out this time around. But I really wish I had a pickemup truck. With all these limbs on side of the road, I could easily have a chord of firewood ready to dry out for next year.

[wxman57]

WXMAN57 sure knowes how to burst ones bubble on winter weather

Careful what you say about me or I'll turn the thermostat on my weather machine up to 90 degrees!

I keep saying that the pattern I'm seeing for the winter is not a warm one. You just need to be patient. It's still autumn, you know, and it's already been quite cold for the past 4 weeks with one major ice storm. Old Man Winter is just taking a temporary breather (and he gave me the control of the weather machine).

[katheria]

I'm here for the chips and beer.

Katharia I feel for you with the damage. We lucked out this time around. But I really wish I had a pickemup truck. With all these limbs on side of the road, I could easily have a chord of firewood ready to dry out for next year.

gboudx, that could be arranged

i have 4 cords out back already and dont need anymore
we dont even have a fireplace just a smoker

bring ur chain saw, hit my neighborhood and u can get 10 cords of wood..... i got a truck:) rockwalls just a hop and skip down the street

always willing to help a fellow storm2k'r

[katheria]

WXMAN57 sure knowes how to burst ones bubble on winter weather

Careful what you say about me or I'll turn the thermostat on my weather machine up to 90 degrees!

can i place a order for 75 degrees and sunny????

[Ntxw]

can i place a order for 75 degrees and sunny????

In 6 months you will get all the 90s and 100s you want Drought too, just give it a little time . He will make it the hottest hottest summer ever trumping 2011 like child's play!

The Warm Pool in Alaska doesn't work the same in the summer, it will block cooler Pacific air

[Tireman4]

WXMAN57 sure knowes how to burst ones bubble on winter weather

Careful what you say about me or I'll turn the thermostat on my weather machine up to 90 degrees!

I keep saying that the pattern I'm seeing for the winter is not a warm one. You just need to be patient. It's still autumn, you know, and it's already been quite cold for the past 4 weeks with one major ice storm. Old Man Winter is just taking a temporary breather (and he gave me the control of the weather machine).

Hey hey...do not poke him guys. Dadgummit. The man was responsible for the Summer of 2011. Stop it now or I will call Porta in here. Dang it. LOL

[Kludge]

looks like the farmers almanacs both of them got this one pretty correct...
Dec 15-19: Sunny; cool, then warm; Dec 20-25: Snow north, rain south, then sunny, cold;
16th-19th. Wet New Mexico to Arkansas and Louisiana.
not sure how exactly they come up with their forecasts, would be interesting to find out. but its a secret

From the looks of it, I would say Al Roker and The Weather Channel

[Tireman4]

looks like the farmers almanacs both of them got this one pretty correct...
Dec 15-19: Sunny; cool, then warm; Dec 20-25: Snow north, rain south, then sunny, cold;
16th-19th. Wet New Mexico to Arkansas and Louisiana.
not sure how exactly they come up with their forecasts, would be interesting to find out. but its a secret

From the looks of it, I would say Al Roker and The Weather Channel

Woo Hoo. Cooking with Al....

[South Texas Storms]

I really want a good widespread heavy rain event in south central Texas for Christmas! I won't mind if it's a few days late either!

[gpsnowman]

Good morning fellow weather lovers. It is 4:55 on a Friday morning. It is very muggy and 67 degrees. Yuck. Please send down some arctic chill, Old Man Winter.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Global deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to advertise a -EPO/+PNA regime just after the Christmas time frame with a return of colder air and a noisy sub tropical jet that may provide over running precip after the return to a colder air arrives.

The New Year time frame could prove interesting for Winter Weather lovers if the trends continue. We will see.

[wxman57]

Ah, great Christmas weather today - already 68 degrees and the sun is just rising. Time for a bike ride wearing a short-sleeved shirt today! I'm off work until January 2nd. Overnight GFS does indicate a cold front moving through late on the 30th with temps falling into the upper 20s on New Year's Eve morning then a short period of cold weather to start the year. No frozen precip indicated.

[Portastorm]

The super-secret PWC computer models do show a return to winter toward New Years Eve. We're drawing up those maps right now! Could be a significant winter weather event in a surprise location in the Houston area ... where certain cycling/warm weather-loving meteorologists live.

We've got the snow machine on standby in case the weather doesn't cooperate with our plans.

[somethingfunny]

LongRangeModels.JPG

[Rgv20]

A toasty forecast high of 87 today for my area!

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm here for the chips and beer.

Katharia I feel for you with the damage. We lucked out this time around. But I really wish I had a pickemup truck. With all these limbs on side of the road, I could easily have a chord of firewood ready to dry out for next year.

Shiner and wx board full of mixed nuts...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

This is horrible Christmas weather... disgusting, muggy and warm.

[dhweather]

Remembering December 1983

From FWD


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dec1983

[Portastorm]

A special holiday season message from the desk of the Lead Meteorologist from the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County:

As mentioned already by Ntxw and srainhoutx, the latest teleconnection indices and forecasts are quite interesting. If verified, we will be heading into a period of an increasingly negative Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern which features high pressure ridges in the western US (depending on placement, sometimes the ridge covers a good third of the Western US and sometimes the ridging is more towards the Pacific coast). Depending on the placement of the ridging, it could be a vehicle to deliver cold (very cold) air from Canada/Alaska/North Pole/Siberia into the lower 48, namely the central and eastern CONUS. And, we still see the indices suggesting a negative EPO although the strength of the negativity may wane a bit. You will recall that a negative EPO comes from strong high pressure ridging in the northeast Pacific. This ridge of high pressure blocks the jet stream and forces it to go up and over the high cell. We're also seeing some suggestion that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will go to neutral after being strongly positive for awhile. A neutral AO should help funnel more cold air south into the CONUS.

What does all of this mean? It appears that we're shaping up for an active period of winter weather towards New Years and certainly into 2014. There's no question that this winter -- as wxman57 points out hasn't even technically started yet! -- already is much different than the last few. Get ready folks ... I think we're going to have a lot to talk about soon enough.

Oh, and I should add that the Winter Solstice officially begins tomorrow, Saturday, Dec. 21st, at 11:11 am Central time!

Graphic below to support outlandish claims above:



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