SIO: AMARA - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

Quite impressive



Satellite presentation of Amara quickly going downhill, likely due to dry air intrusion

[hurricanes1234]

Indeed, it is weakening. Oh well, that was fun to track.

03S AMARA 131219 0600 17.2S 68.3E SHEM 105 944

[hurricanes1234]

And it's back up to a SSHS Category 4!

03S AMARA 131220 0000 18.3S 65.9E SHEM 115 937

[Alyono]

This may make a direct hit on Rodrigues, an island of 36,000 people

[hurricanes1234]

This may make a direct hit on Rodrigues, an island of 36,000 people

What? When?

[Alyono]

direct hit may occur in about 24 hours

[supercane4867]

Rodrigues airport station has stopped reporting since 7 hours ago...

[Macrocane]

ZCZC 070
WTIO30 FMEE 210640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/2/20132014
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (AMARA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 64.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 933 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 310 SW: 260 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/21 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/12/22 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 66.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/12/22 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/12/23 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2013/12/24 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/25 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.5-
AMARA STILL SHOWS A VERY WELL SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH A 3 HOURS AVERAGED DT AT 6.5-. THE SYSTEM I
S GONE TO CLOSER TO THE RODRIGUES ISLAND JUST AFTER 0000Z AT ABOUT 35 NM EASTWARD. NOW, IT IS GOIN
G AWAY FROM THE ISLAND ON A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS, AMARA MAY RECURVE CLEARLY SOUTH-EASTWARD BY ACCELERATING, IN RELATIONSHIP W
ITH THE WEAKENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES EXISTING EASTWARD AND THE TRA
NSIT OF THE HIGH TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM THIS AFTERNOON, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY UNDERGOING THE STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
DURING THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN UNDER TH
E INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE MID TO LOW TROPOSPHERE. FROM TUESDAY, THE WEAKENED
SYSTEM SHOULD GO BACK WESTWARD WITH THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. AS BRUCE SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF AMARA AT THIS TI
ME, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS RECURVING SCENARIO.
NNNN

[Macrocane]

WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.0S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.6S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.0S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.2S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.3S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.4S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.4S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 64.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 29-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY AN ASYMMETRIC
EYEWALL. A 210518Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING EVIDENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, TC 03S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36, AS IT WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DUE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. TC AMARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
120 WITH THE REMNANTS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OR TRACKING
WESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO; HOWEVER,
THE MODEL TRACKERS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like Amara has peaked, as the eye is shrinking and becoming less symmetric, and the cloud pattern looks ‘squeezed’.

NOT OFFICIAL.

[hurricanes1234]

Amara is decaying rapidly. Here is when it was around its peak...


Here is it now. Almost nothing left but an irregular mass of warming cloudtops.


Oh well, I hope Amara didn't do too much damage to Rodrigues Island. Other than that, it added significantly to the ACE here, along with Bruce. A long-tracker indeed.

[euro6208]

Very impressive storm!

To witness 2 majors at the same time in the SIO is amazing!

Thanks for all the updates!

[hurricanes1234]

Very impressive storm!

To witness 2 majors at the same time in the SIO is amazing!

Thanks for all the updates!

Your welcome. But it's dying now.

Still a nice storm indeed, like Brother Bruce. Let's hope it didn't do too much damage.