ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Mid December update of ENSO Models

The average from them is +0.4C for ASO so almost at the Warm Neutral/El Nino line. But is early to say for sure how ENSO will be by the peak of the 2014 North Atlantic season.



http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... uick-look/

[Kingarabian]

Interesting. Two seasons ago, we had the same thing. We had a lot of indicators and models pointing to an El-Nino, but the episode eventually turned out to be a bust. Let's see how everything pans out.

[Ntxw]

Sorry about the mix-up. I was used to that common theory that said that each year without an El Niño increased the chances of one the following year. But I think next year will have an El Niño which might suppress the Atlantic once more?

Perhaps I can help you out here. While each year is it's own right and the previous year has little bearing maybe what you meant to say was the longer we go without an El Nino will increasingly become and oddity. It is not unusual to go stretches without an El Nino but since 1950 there hasn't been a stretch where one hasn't turned on by the 5th year consecutively (2014 will be the 5th calendar year). So basically doesn't mean it has to happen, but it would be a first if there was not one.

[hurricanes1234]

Sorry about the mix-up. I was used to that common theory that said that each year without an El Niño increased the chances of one the following year. But I think next year will have an El Niño which might suppress the Atlantic once more?

Perhaps I can help you out here. While each year is it's own right and the previous year has little bearing maybe what you meant to say was the longer we go without an El Nino will increasingly become and oddity. It is not unusual to go stretches without an El Nino but since 1950 there hasn't been a stretch where one hasn't turned on by the 5th year (2014 will be the 5th calendar year). So basically doesn't mean it has to happen, but it would be a first if there was not one.

Thanks. I can't wait to see if next year will be one! After all, it will be the longest stretch without one if not. If there is no El Niño, I think we may see warm neutral conditions.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/23/13 update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.1C



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Portastorm]

Lotsa chatter out there right now about a slight Modoki Nino, west-based, beginning.

[Ntxw]

Lotsa chatter out there right now about a slight Modoki Nino, west-based, beginning.

We won't get a declaration until at least late spring if one were to turn on right now and that's if it was already going. However it is unlikely this will happen and the earliest possible appearance from El Nino would be summer 2014 if there were to be one.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The NCAR forecast valid for the May-June-July period looks the most reasonable to me...at least compared to the other models which show a bonafide El Niño. I'm not sold on the idea of even a Modoki, but we'll see. Just as a note, it's showing a positive Atlantic tripole, with cooler waters around 60N (very important!). This would set the stage for an active Atlantic hurricane season in '14.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/30/13 update=Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

A little cooler than last week's update.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Lol. Sigh.

Either way, we have to wait and see.

[hurricanes1234]

Lol. Sigh.

Either way, we have to wait and see.

The way it's fluctuating like that makes me wonder what next year will bring. Warm one week, then the next week is cool. ENSO can't make up its mind.

[Ntxw]

It's been that way for many many months. When they say neutral they mean it! Back and forth but never too far deviation. If you were looking at El Nino, or La Nina, forming you would see a 2,3,4C+ waters bubble down from the west underneath the surface and slowly migrate east and upwell. So far that hasn't happened and the warming/cooling is just climo changing. What's warm now may not be warm in the summer or even next month vice versa relative to average.

[Yellow Evan]

Lol. Sigh.

Either way, we have to wait and see.

This reminds me a bit of 2012 when ENSO kept going up and down.

[cycloneye]

The latest ESPI is way down in negative at this time meaning El Nino will have to wait a while if it is going to make an appearance at some point in 2014.





http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/6/14 update=Nino 3.4 down to -0.3C

Nino 3.4 area keeps cooling slowly as the ESPI confirms and this CPC update shows. You begin to wonder if El Nino will not make an appearance at all in 2014.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[hurricanes1234]

I call it ENSO madness. I have a slight feeling now that this will be a year where everything is below-average in terms of hurricanes, much like last year and its inexplicable behaviour. If El Niño does appear, I think it will be late and by the end of the season. However, this is solely my opinion (see signature).

[dexterlabio]

The plunge towards negative or positive values won't mean anything until Spring. SST in Nino 3.4 region was below -0.5 in January 2009 and La Nina conditions persisted until Northern Hemisphere Spring. Everything had changed after that as we all know...

[Ptarmigan]

I call it ENSO madness. I have a slight feeling now that this will be a year where everything is below-average in terms of hurricanes, much like last year and its inexplicable behaviour. If El Niño does appear, I think it will be late and by the end of the season. However, this is solely my opinion (see signature).

El Nino is like predicting a bright comet.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center January update

They say Neutral thru Summer but also add El Nino chance increases by that time.

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014.

During December, ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Nino indices in all of the regions were within ±0.5°C and showed only small changes during the month (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) decreased but remained above average (Fig. 3), following the passing of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that had raised the sub-surface temperatures in November (Fig. 4). Also in December, slightly enhanced low-level trade winds were observed in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, while enhanced upper level westerly winds prevailed in portions of the eastern half of the basin. Convection was suppressed in the central equatorial Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models predict that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (Fig. 6). While current forecast probabilities are still greatest for ENSO-neutral during summer, there is an increasing chance for the development of El Niño. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[Kingarabian]

What's the latest PDO?