Miami NWS AFD

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TampaFl
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Miami NWS AFD

#1 Postby TampaFl » Fri Sep 12, 2003 3:29 am

Interesting extended discussion from Miami NWS early this morning. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

FXUS62 KMFL 120648
AFDMIA

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH RESPECT
TO SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER. WILL SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER ALL
ZONES TODAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. LINGERING TROUGHINESS WILL ALSO HELP SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL.

EXTENDED PERIODS BEGINNING TO BE MORE OF A PROBLEM. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY INTRODUCED WINDS BACKING TO NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ISABEL'S APPROACH...STILL WELL EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. EFFECTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GREATLY VARY...OF
COURSE...GIVEN FINAL TRACK OF ISABEL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
TO BE DAYS OF GREATEST POTENTIAL INFLUENCE WITHIN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. CANNOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT EVEN THE FURTHEST EAST TRACK
COULD PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS EAST ZONES. SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE
VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. HWO WILL
NEED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY.

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY. SWELL FROM
HENRI BEGINNING TO WANE A BIT AS PROGGED BY WAVE MODEL. SINCE WIND
WAVES RUNNING 2 FEET OR LESS EAST COASTAL ZONES WILL MENTION SWELL 3
TO 5 FEET NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FOR TODAY...DIMINISHING BY
TONIGHT. NO OTHER CONCERNS FOR MARINE FORECASTS UNTIL LATE MONDAY.
AS WINDS BACK TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...GULF STREAM SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 88 77 / 40 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 77 88 78 / 40 20 50 20
MIAMI 89 78 88 78 / 40 20 50 20
NAPLES 89 74 89 75 / 30 10 50 20

.MIA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
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Steve H.
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:36 am

Problem for those guys is its getting into their forecast window now. Even given the uncertainties, they have to deal with the possibility of the CAne affecting their AOI> :o
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jfaul
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#3 Postby jfaul » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:45 am

Steve H. wrote:Problem for those guys is its getting into their forecast window now. Even given the uncertainties, they have to deal with the possibility of the CAne affecting their AOI> :o


hey steve,
they hype machime will be in full force for us just like floyd.
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