SPAC: 06F - Tropical Disturbance (97P)

[supercane4867]

10.9S 168.0E

[senorpepr]

WWPS21 NFFN 260600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 26/0825 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.7S 173.0E
AT 260600UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.


TXPS41 PHFO 261123
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1123 UTC THU DEC 26 2013

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F

B. 26/1032Z

C. 13.2S

D. 173.3E

E. MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18 HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...0.25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DATA T OF 1.5.
PATTERN T AGREES. FINAL T BASED ON DATA T.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.

$$

KINEL

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
MEDIA RELEASE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD06F
11:30AM THURSDAY 26TH DECEMBER, 2013.



Remarks:
A Tropical Disturbance TD06F [1005hPa] centre was located near 13.0 South latitude
and 172.6 West or about 740km Northwest of Nadi at 10am today. It is currently slow
moving but is expected to move towards the southeast in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The Disturbance has not developed much and has a low probability of becoming a tropical
cyclone in the next 48 hours as it is expected to be moving into an area of unfavourable
conditions, which will minimise its chances of developing into a tropical cyclone.

[stormkite]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 27/0855 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.1S 174.2E
AT 270600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER PAST 12
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 850HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[senorpepr]

111
WWPS21 NFFN 280900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 28/0907 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.1S 175.5E
AT 280600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT
PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO
HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[senorpepr]

338
WWPS21 NFFN 290600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 29/0843 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.6S 175.0E
AT 290800UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AREAL EXTENT PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO 8500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[senorpepr]

856
WWPS21 NFFN 292300
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 29/2311 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.9S 176.1E
AT 292100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN IRREGULAR NEAR THE LLCC FOR MORE THAN PAST 24
HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, THERE WILL BE
NO MORE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.