Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Hey take a look at the 00z nam 69-84 seems to be hinting at light snow sunday for north and northeast Texas gfs has been showing the same over the past few days? seems there isnt alot of moisture but who knows

The models have been quietly going neutral tilt with this wave and trending stronger. The Ukmet suggest possibly even further digging. If it goes negative tilt we could possibly see a much more robust system than they are currently showing. Often these things like to dig into the great basin vs the Colorado Rockies that are often portrayed.

[orangeblood]

Hey take a look at the 00z nam 69-84 seems to be hinting at light snow sunday for north and northeast Texas gfs has been showing the same over the past few days? seems there isnt alot of moisture but who knows

Actually has quite a bit of moisture into Arkansas, some qpf amounts of > .25 in subfreezing surface temps. NAM shows much more energy rounding the base of the trough when compared with the GFS/Euro....that model is supposed to be better at picking up on the smaller embedded shortwaves within the UL Flow, maybe it is onto something ?

[Jarodm12]

i wouldnt be surprised to see a mention of this in either the morning or afternoon forecast discussions

[TheProfessor]

Hey take a look at the 00z nam 69-84 seems to be hinting at light snow sunday for north and northeast Texas gfs has been showing the same over the past few days? seems there isnt alot of moisture but who knows

Actually has quite a bit of moisture into Arkansas, some qpf amounts of > .25 in subfreezing surface temps. NAM shows much more energy rounding the base of the trough when compared with the GFS/Euro....that model is supposed to be better at picking up on the smaller embedded shortwaves within the UL Flow, maybe it is onto something ?

Well maybe that moisture can be pulled a couple hundred miles to the southwest.

[Jarodm12]

00z gfs says not so fast further south and east we will see

[TheProfessor]

00z gfs says not so fast further south and east we will see

Is that a good thing for winter weather lovers in Texas?

[Jarodm12]

no, however id like to see what tomorrows guidance says. 00z gfs puts moisture south and east of dfw

[BigB0882]

no, however id like to see what tomorrows guidance says. 00z gfs puts moisture south and east of dfw

Would it be snow for those outside of dfw? This is the Texas thread, not DFW thread which is very easy to forget. Lol

[Portastorm]

It has been awhile since I've seen so much divergence in the operationals and ensembles from the GFS, Euro, and Canadian. For some reason the GFS has gone blow torch overnight for much of the US over the next 10-15 days. A wxman57-like set of runs, if you will.

The Euro shows a potent and deep trough impacting the Southern Plains around Jan. 4th with some cold air with it. The Canadian, meanwhile, goes Grey Goose on everyone and offers a very cold looking pattern for much of the CONUS between days 6-15.

Again, I'm talking very large differences not only in the daily model runs (operational) but the ensembles as well. Clearly this should signal to everyone that a potential pattern change looms and the models are really struggling with the details. And it looks like the long-range forecast desk out of NOAA in DC is thinking the same.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013

VALID 12Z MON DEC 30 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 03 2014

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

A WELL-DEFINED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST/EAST WILL RULE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS THE COLD POLAR VORTEX SWINGS
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY BUT SHOW MORE THAN TYPICAL SPREAD IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIGHT FROM MON/D3. THE 12Z ECMWF CLUSTERS WELL
WITH THE 12Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS THOUGH THE 12-18Z GFS RUNS WERE
MOSTLY WITHIN TOLERANCE. HOWEVER... THE 18Z GFS/GEFS BECAME SLOWER
THAN THE 12Z EC-LED CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN CANADA TO BRING HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY WED/D5. THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLOWER OVERALL BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW WITHIN A
BROAD TROUGH WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR A CONTINUED SLOWER TREND. BY
THU-FRI/D6-7... THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO DEEP/QUICK TO BRING IN ENERGY
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH FLATTENS THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM...
AGAINST THE IDEA OF THE ENSEMBLES MEANS. KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS
NEAR 80-85W LEAVES ROOM FOR ANOTHER COASTAL STORM TO DEVELOP EAST
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... BUT CONSISTENCY IS LACKING AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS MILD/COLD TEMPERATURES...
SEPARATED ROUGHLY BY THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH A
RELATIVELY FAR SOUTHERN JOG OF THE POLAR VORTEX... THE "CREME DE
LA CREME" COLD AIR /-40C AT 850MB/ MAY SKIRT ALONG 50N IN QUEBEC
BUT SHOULD STILL DELIVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BASICALLY
THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TUE/D4.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WILL FEEL
THE DEEPEST CHILL /20 TO 30F BELOW CLIMO/ WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
SHOULD SUPPORT 10-20F ABOVE CLIMO. EVEN FLORIDA SHOULD CATCH SOME
COOLER AIR AS THE ONCE DOMINANT SOUTHERN RIDGE GETS SQUASHED
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.

PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO FLORIDA ALONG THE POLAR
FRONT... SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS SOME WEAK
RETURN FLOW ATTEMPTS TO RESTART... AND TO THE NORTH FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST /WITH LAKE-ENHANCED
SNOWS/.


FRACASSO

[Portastorm]

Then, of course, there is this piece of model stuff from the 6z GFS at 384 hours! This one is for you, hriverajr! Snow in Del Rio and lots of snow for the PWC!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[srainhoutx]

The only feature that is becoming a bit more clear is the development of a strong 5H Low over the Baja tapping into a noisy sub tropical jet that tracks across Mexico over the weekend. For those of us across the Southern half of Texas, it does appear an upglide or over running precip pattern may continue even after a stronger push of colder air arrives Sunday into New Years Eve may end up wet with light precip for those with plans to ring in the New Year. If a Coastal low develops Tuesday/Wednesday, the forecast may become even more tricky.

[wxman57]

Then, of course, there is this piece of model stuff from the 6z GFS at 384 hours! This one is for you, hriverajr! Snow in Del Rio and lots of snow for the PWC!

It's hard to discount the 384hr panel of the GFS...

[srainhoutx]

The forecast from New Years Day into mid January is trending to that of what we saw in late November/early December where a –WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation)/-EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) regime where heights were high across the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska due to the unusually warm waters across the Northern Pacific ushered in much colder air into the Western 2/3rds of North America and brought much below normal temperatures with a stormy pattern as strong/potent upper lows and a noisy sub tropical jet brought bouts of wintry weather across our Region. The PNA (Pacific- North American Oscillation) is forecast to relax back to a more neutral or slightly negative state which is what happen when we were very chilly early in the month of December where a persistent trough developed across the Great Basin/Inter Mountain West and into the Plains while the East Coast saw a stout Ridge and kept that area warm with above normal temperatures. The fly in the ointment is the AO (Arctic Oscillation) which is currently forecast to drop into negative territory which tends to have major effects of the location of the Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay. The Global ensembles have been hinting that the PV will shift back W and S, or to the West of Hudson Bay. Currently our source regions of Eastern Alaska/NW Territories of Western Canada are witnessing temperatures of -50 F or about 10-20 F colder than what we saw early in December.

There are indications that the tropical Pacific may become a bit more active with convection and that tends to throw a wild card into the forecasting schemes when looking at the medium/long range forecast, but after a relaxation of the pattern in our part of the world, signals are growing that another pattern change may be developing that could have major impacts on the sensible weather we can expect in the early to mid January time frame.

[hriverajr]

Then, of course, there is this piece of model stuff from the 6z GFS at 384 hours! This one is for you, hriverajr! Snow in Del Rio and lots of snow for the PWC!

One can only dream eh...

[TheProfessor]

The forecast from New Years Day into mid January is trending to that of what we saw in late November/early December where a –WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation)/-EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) regime where heights were high across the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska due to the unusually warm waters across the Northern Pacific ushered in much colder air into the Western 2/3rds of North America and brought much below normal temperatures with a stormy pattern as strong/potent upper lows and a noisy sub tropical jet brought bouts of wintry weather across our Region. The PNA (Pacific- North American Oscillation) is forecast to relax back to a more neutral or slightly negative state which is what happen when we were very chilly early in the month of December where a persistent trough developed across the Great Basin/Inter Mountain West and into the Plains while the East Coast saw a stout Ridge and kept that area warm with above normal temperatures. The fly in the ointment is the AO (Arctic Oscillation) which is currently forecast to drop into negative territory which tends to have major effects of the location of the Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay. The Global ensembles have been hinting that the PV will shift back W and S, or to the West of Hudson Bay. Currently our source regions of Eastern Alaska/NW Territories of Western Canada are witnessing temperatures of -50 F or about 10-20 F colder than what we saw early in December.

There are indications that the tropical Pacific may become a bit more active with convection and that tends to throw a wild card into the forecasting schemes when looking at the medium/long range forecast, but after a relaxation of the pattern in our part of the world, signals are growing that another pattern change may be developing that could have major impacts on the sensible weather we can expect in the early to mid January time frame.

So because the air in Canada is colder, does that mean that there is a less likely chance of a warm nose developing over North Texas with storms for the next few weeks?

[Ntxw]

Not necessarily but because the AO is about to go negative there will be deeper cold air involved along with the lower levels. Notice in December during the cold snaps heights were 558dm or higher but now in modelling its 558dm or lower. -AO/-EPO means deeper cold air masses.

[TheProfessor]

Is there any chance that some moisture makes its way toward DFW. I feel like something might happen because of the big game sunday night. In fact the last time the Cowboys played the Eagles at home for the end of the year there was snow and ice on the ground from the christmas eve blizzard and one of the ponds near the stadium was frozen over.

[Portastorm]

Is there any chance that some moisture makes its way toward DFW. I feel like something might happen because of the big game sunday night. In fact the last time the Cowboys played the Eagles at home for the end of the year there was snow and ice on the ground from the christmas eve blizzard and one of the ponds near the stadium was frozen over.

Let me put it this way ... there's a better chance the Cowboys defense holds the Eagles under 20 points than there is of snow or sleet or freezing rain in Dallas Sunday night.

That should tell you what a long shot it is.

[TheProfessor]

Is there any chance that some moisture makes its way toward DFW. I feel like something might happen because of the big game sunday night. In fact the last time the Cowboys played the Eagles at home for the end of the year there was snow and ice on the ground from the christmas eve blizzard and one of the ponds near the stadium was frozen over.

Let me put it this way ... there's a better chance the Cowboys defense holds the Eagles under 20 points than there is of snow or sleet or freezing rain in Dallas Sunday night.

That should tell you what a long shot it is.

well, even though it was a few weeks ago we did hold the team to 3 points in the first game played this season.

[dhweather]

Then, of course, there is this piece of model stuff from the 6z GFS at 384 hours! This one is for you, hriverajr! Snow in Del Rio and lots of snow for the PWC!

It's hard to discount the 384hr panel of the GFS...

I know, it's like a prophecy. The Nostradamus of weather forecasting!

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!