Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

It has been a wet 2013 for PR for sure as it may end as the 4th most wettest year on record when it ends.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert is up due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms for ... Guadeloupe, Martinica and the Northern Leewards. Very strong showers and tstorms are abatting on us. Our radar is even down (Meteo-France Guadeloupe). I will keep your informed if anything happens in the butterfly island.

By the way, MERRY CHRISTMAS to all my carib friends. Cycloneye, enjoy it your friend Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Merry Christmas to all the Caribbean and Central American friends.

[cycloneye]

See you on Thursday as I will celebrate Christmas with family.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE DEC 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF PR WILL MOVE ENE NEXT 48 HRS
WHILE FILLING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU GROWING OVER ERN PR WHICH MAY
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. ACTIVE TONIGHT OVER ATLC
COASTAL WATERS AND CARIB WATERS OVER USVI AND ANEGADA PASSAGE AS
UPPER LOW STARTS MOVING EAST. POSSIBLY ONE MORE ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW
MORNING ON DIVERGENT SIDE OF MID-LEVEL LOW BEFORE UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA THU.

REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH
RAPIDLY IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS. FLAT RIDGE WILL THEN ESTABLISH
OVR THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR WX
CONDITIONS. TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THU BUT
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LIKELY AT USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS
TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY JPS AND JSJ WED MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY BUT
SEAS STILL REMAIN AROUND 7 FT. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS 4-6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 81 75 83 / 0 60 0 30
STT 78 85 78 85 / 40 70 20 20

[tropicana]

UPDATE Wed Dec 25/13 1030amET Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to rock many areas of the Windward and Leeward Islands overnight and this morning. The system responsible for the very active weather is an upper level trough system . Rainfall in the last 12 hours ending at 8am Wed morning include:- Piarco Int Airport Trinidad 17mm with thunderstorms, Crown Point SW Tobago 52mm with thunderstorms, Point Salines Grenada 69mm (close to 3 inches) with thunderstorms and many hours of continuous lightning, Grantley Adams Barbados 2mm, LeLamentin Martinique 16mm and Melville Hall Dominica 2mm. Torrential rain for several hours last night in St Vincent. Reports from SVG TV of several bridges down & problems in the Buccament valley, hospital & the airport flooded. Two persons are missing, several persons trapped and the streets in the Capital, Kingstown flooded, as torrential rains in St. Vincent and the Grenadines have causes severe floods, damage to housing and infrastructure in that Caribbean island overnight.
In St Lucia, the flooding has been responsible for the death of 5 people so far. The death from the Christmas Eve flooding across the island now stands at five. Two bodies were reportedly discovered in Bexon; the body of a young man was found in Grace; a body was retrieved in Micoud; and a police officer was killed last night. Heavy rains continued in St Lucia overnight but there are no reports from both the island's airports as to how much rain has fallen. St. Lucia has suffered from flooding the likes of which we have not seen since Tropical Storm Debbie and Hurricane Thomas two years ago.
Two major bridges at Canaries and Piaye have been washed away and these are bridges that have survived both of the before mentioned storms!! With the loss of these two bridges the Soufriere area has been totally cut off.
Vieux Fort has also been cut off as the major highway in the Anse Ger area which is near Micoud has been severed with a large section having been washed away.
The Hewanorra airport was flooded through the departure lounge and there is a rumor that there might be a section of the runway that was under cut and collapsed. If anyone can fly into the airport, it might not be possible to get to Castries until they can fix the road at Anse Ger.

The old concrete Taxi way that was built during the second world war and is presently used as the main highway into Vieux Fort has collapsed near the beach and is almost impassable.
The Bexon highway was also underwater for most of the night but is apparently passable as of this morning.
The electricity services is reporting that approximately 15% of the population is without power due to tripped fuses and collapsed poles. They cannot access many of these areas due to the bridge outages and land slides. The water supply has also been affected due to blocked water intakes and damage to water mains. This is in many ways just as serious as the damage that that island sustained during Hurricane Thomas and will set back the reconstruction that was proceeding apace since the passage of that Hurricane. Unfortunately this will not be a very merry Christmas for many around the island.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Only a few showers are expected today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST THU DEC 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
SHIFTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON THE FIRST OF THE YEAR.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE FROM PUERTO RICO TO PANAMA WILL
WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. NEXT WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND
WEAKLY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL LATE NEXT
WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL FLATTEN OUT BY SATURDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...REINFORCING THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE DIMINISHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND FEWER SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN AFTER FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WERE
SEEN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MAINLY AT UPPER LEVELS...CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DIMINISHES AFTER TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY TODAY. BANDS OF MOISTURE
IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRAW TO
A MINIMUM AS THE YEAR ENDS WITH ONLY FRIDAY AND MONDAY SHOWING
PROMISE FOR MUCH COVERAGE OR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. FOR NOW THIS
MEANS THAT THE FORECAST FOR NEW YEAR`S EVE COULD BE THE DRIEST IN
OVER 4 YEARS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 26/18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ BETWEEN 26/18Z-26/22Z IN
SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT WILL NOT LIKELY FALL
MUCH MORE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORESEEN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 74 / 10 0 20 20
STT 85 75 86 76 / 10 10 20 30

[chrisjslucia]

Christmas Day was a little more subdued than usual in the Eastern Caribbean this year. After the rainfall of Christmas Eve, 171mm here in St Lucia, there are eight reported deaths in St Vincent and five in St Lucia. Bizarre to be dealing this in the Caribbean in December and in the UK there is even more flooding.

Happy new year to all of you and special greetings to my fellow Caribbean posters.

Chris

[cycloneye]

UPDATE Wed Dec 25/13 1030amET Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to rock many areas of the Windward and Leeward Islands overnight and this morning. The system responsible for the very active weather is an upper level trough system . Rainfall in the last 12 hours ending at 8am Wed morning include:- Piarco Int Airport Trinidad 17mm with thunderstorms, Crown Point SW Tobago 52mm with thunderstorms, Point Salines Grenada 69mm (close to 3 inches) with thunderstorms and many hours of continuous lightning, Grantley Adams Barbados 2mm, LeLamentin Martinique 16mm and Melville Hall Dominica 2mm. Torrential rain for several hours last night in St Vincent. Reports from SVG TV of several bridges down & problems in the Buccament valley, hospital & the airport flooded. Two persons are missing, several persons trapped and the streets in the Capital, Kingstown flooded, as torrential rains in St. Vincent and the Grenadines have causes severe floods, damage to housing and infrastructure in that Caribbean island overnight.
In St Lucia, the flooding has been responsible for the death of 5 people so far. The death from the Christmas Eve flooding across the island now stands at five. Two bodies were reportedly discovered in Bexon; the body of a young man was found in Grace; a body was retrieved in Micoud; and a police officer was killed last night. Heavy rains continued in St Lucia overnight but there are no reports from both the island's airports as to how much rain has fallen. St. Lucia has suffered from flooding the likes of which we have not seen since Tropical Storm Debbie and Hurricane Thomas two years ago.
Two major bridges at Canaries and Piaye have been washed away and these are bridges that have survived both of the before mentioned storms!! With the loss of these two bridges the Soufriere area has been totally cut off.
Vieux Fort has also been cut off as the major highway in the Anse Ger area which is near Micoud has been severed with a large section having been washed away.
The Hewanorra airport was flooded through the departure lounge and there is a rumor that there might be a section of the runway that was under cut and collapsed. If anyone can fly into the airport, it might not be possible to get to Castries until they can fix the road at Anse Ger.

The old concrete Taxi way that was built during the second world war and is presently used as the main highway into Vieux Fort has collapsed near the beach and is almost impassable.
The Bexon highway was also underwater for most of the night but is apparently passable as of this morning.
The electricity services is reporting that approximately 15% of the population is without power due to tripped fuses and collapsed poles. They cannot access many of these areas due to the bridge outages and land slides. The water supply has also been affected due to blocked water intakes and damage to water mains. This is in many ways just as serious as the damage that that island sustained during Hurricane Thomas and will set back the reconstruction that was proceeding apace since the passage of that Hurricane. Unfortunately this will not be a very merry Christmas for many around the island.

Here are some pictures of the damage caused by the flooding in Dominica.







http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/home ... stmas-eve/

[abajan]

The situation in St. Vincent is worse than I'd initially heard. Yesterday morning I heard that 2 people were missing and now I'm hearing of at least 8 dead and 5 missing. What a time of the year for such a tragedy to occur

My goddaughter's cousin is a Vincentian but she's currently holidaying here. I certainly hope her family made it through okay.

Fortunately, we didn't get weather anything near what was experienced from St. Vincent & The Grenadines through to Guadeloupe but it was fairly obvious that something odd was happening because on the night of December 23rd it was quite rainy and windy in spells. There was even some lightning and thunder. Quite unusual for Barbados at this time of year.

Pray for our Caribbean brothers and sisters.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST THU DEC 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...GFS INITIALIZED BETTER TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES IN VICINITY. 500 MB TOUGH WITH VORTICITY MAX IS DRIFTING
NORTH OF PR NEAR 20N AND APPEARS TO BE ON COURSE TO LOOP BACK
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST. GFS/ECWMF/UKMET AGREE IN PUSHING IT BACK TO
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY SUN/12Z. RIDGE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
OVER PR/USVI WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS A SHADE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE SEASON
CURRENTLY HAVE GENERATED CONVECTION OVER THE PR INTERIOR BUT
EXPECT THE SHORTENED DAYLIGHT TO END IT BEFORE EVENING. TRADE
WINDS WILL DEEPEN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEW POINTS...STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PRD. HOWEVER AT LEAST UNTIL 26/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS WITH MTN TOP OBSCR WILL REMAIN PSBL MAINLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTN
RANGE OF PR DUE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCPT FOR LCL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND LCL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 5 FT OR LESS AND WILL STAY DOWN
UNTIL WINDS INCREASE AGAIN. THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
IT WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE AND 6 FT WILL STILL BE THE MAX
FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 83 / 0 20 30 30
STT 75 85 76 85 / 10 20 40 30

[cycloneye]

The situation in St. Vincent is worse than I'd initially heard. Yesterday morning I heard that 2 people were missing and now I'm hearing of at least 8 dead and 5 missing. What a time of the year for such a tragedy to occur

My goddaughter's cousin is a Vincentian but she's currently holidaying here. I certainly hope her family made it through okay.

Fortunately, we didn't get weather anything near what was experienced from St. Vincent & The Grenadines through to Guadeloupe but it was fairly obvious that something odd was happening because on the night of December 23rd it was quite rainy and windy in spells. There was even some lightning and thunder. Quite unusual for Barbados at this time of year.

Pray for our Caribbean brothers and sisters.

Looks like this trough caused more damage to other islands in the chain apart from Dominica. My prayers go to them.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail in PR and VI with only a few showers moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST FRI DEC 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
FROM THE WEST. BUILDING RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WIND EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED FAST MOVING
SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS EAST AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S IN COASTAL AREAS
WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC REMAIN DECENT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER W PR ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SHOWER INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST WITH EROSION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...MID TO LONG TERM GRIDS REFLECT AN
OVERALL DRIER(WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS DAYS) AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS.
IN FACT...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PD EXCEPT AT TJMZ BTWN 27/1630-2130Z EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH
SHRA VCNTY PSBL TSRA. AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS SAME PD WRN PR.
WINDS ALF BCMG E 10 TO 15 KT UP THRU 10 KFT AND BCMG LGT AND VRB
BTWN 10-20 KFT THRU 28/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE WEEKEND UP TO 20 KTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SEAS 3-5 FT WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 6TH AND 4TH WETTEST YEAR
ON RECORD AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT(TJSJ) AND CYRIL E.
KING AIRPORT(TIST) WITH 84.93" AND 55.07" RESPECTIVELY. THE
WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AT BOTH STATIONS WAS 2010 WITH 89.50" AT
TJSJ AND 61.36" AT TIST. DECEMBER 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 3RD
AND THE 5TH WETTEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT TIST AND TISX WITH 7.21"
AND 6.46" RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 74 / 20 30 30 30
STT 85 77 86 73 / 20 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST FRI DEC 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM GREATER ANTILLES TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI NEAR 25N TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN
THE NEXT WEEK. BUT A WEAK LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF PR NEAR 19N WILL
HAVE A SHORT TERM EFFECT...STILL PLACING A -10C 500 MB TEMPERATURE
OVER EASTERN PR/USVI AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. GFS
SHOWS A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOWARDS THE WEST BY 28/00 UTC
BUT GIVEN THE ROBUST CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE WEST BELIEVE WARM
ADVECTION AT 500 MB IS NOT OCCURRING YET. ISOLATED URBAN/SMALL
STREAM FLOODING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
AND A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TINY HAIL AGAIN.

A 700 MB RIDGE CURRENTLY AT USVI WILL SWEEP ACROSS PR THIS AFTERNOON
AND FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH DEEP TRADE WINDS FROM EAST-NORTHEAST BY
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SHOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE LESSER ANTILLES
BY TOMORROW THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE THE REGION...
LOWERING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT LEAST UNTIL 27/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS
WITH MTN OBSCR WILL REMAIN PSBL MAINLY OVR THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PR DUE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ
AND TJBQ. SFC WINDS FM THE EAST AT 15 KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TRADE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...PROBABLY REACHING 18-20 KT LATTER HALF OF
WEEKEND. THIS COULD RAISE SEAS TO 6 FT FOR PART OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 84 / 30 30 30 30
STT 77 86 73 85 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Trinidad and Tobago Met services

ISSUED AT: 03:07PM
Date:Friday 27th of December 2013

Meteorologist: Oscar Lovell

FOR THE PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON,EVENING AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards
Sunny and breezy late afternoon despite the odd
shower in a few confined areas. Tonight will be
cool and clear with a few showers during the
early morning hours.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Sunny and breezy late afternoon with a cool clear
night.

All marine interest are advised to exercise
extreme caution.

SEAS: Moderate occasionally Rough
WAVES: 2.5 to 3.0m IN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS

[Macrocane]

Wow, it looked pretty bad in St. Vincent, hope everything is OK now

It has been a cold week in Central America, I will post the observations in the upcoming days. Now I've just updated the observation from the December 16-21 event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2363391#p2363391

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 AM AST SAT DEC 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
FROM THE WEST. BUILDING RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED FAST
MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S IN COASTAL AREAS
WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SHOWER INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST WITH EROSION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...AN OVERALL DRIER (WITH RESPECT TO
PREVIOUS DAYS) AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND THEREFORE REFLECTED ON THE MID TO LONG TERM
GRIDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...FOLLOWED BY A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING TROUGH. TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE NEXT WEEK EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BTWN 28/16-22Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVR THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR DUE TO
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ.
WINDS UP TO 4 KFT EAST AT 15 KT OR LESS...15-20 KT BTWN 4-10 KFT AND
LGT AND VRB FROM 10-20 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TRADE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...PROBABLY REACHING 18-20 KT LATTER HALF OF
WEEKEND. THIS COULD RAISE SEAS TO 6 FT FOR PART OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 6TH AND 4TH WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT (TJSJ) AND CYRIL E. KING
AIRPORT (TIST) WITH 84.93" AND 55.10" RESPECTIVELY. DECEMBER 2013
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 3RD AND THE 5TH WETTEST DECEMBER ON RECORD
AT TIST AND TISX WITH 7.24" AND 6.46" RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 86 74 / 60 60 60 30
STT 85 75 86 76 / 60 40 40 30

[Gustywind]

From the local newspaper of Martinica called FranceAntilles...

Deadly rains in St. Lucia and St. Vincent

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 235413.php

It is a very sad Christmas have experienced our neighbours St. Lucia and St. Vincent on the night of Tuesday 24 to Wednesday, December 25. At least twelve people would be dead on the two islands.

While joy read on the faces of children, we who were their gifts, heavy rains which had felled caused significant damage on the islands of Dominica, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. At least six persons reportedly lost the life in Saint Lucia, other six Saint Vincent.

In the space of 24 hours, the precipitation level recorded amounted to 171 mm for 109 mm in Saint-Vincent and Saint Lucia. Damage caused mainly by rising waters, floods and strong gusts of wind.

In Saint Lucia, the South and the West of the island suffered particularly. The communes of Anse-La-Raye, Bexon, Marc Marc, Canary Islands, Vieux - Fort from the North and South have undergone head-on weather. A sad scene of desolation for the many people who have lost everything and had to find refuge in the h (schools, churches...) secured requisitioned by the Government.


RELIEF ARE ORGANIZED

In several parts of the island, bridges collapsed, there were landslides that have seriously damaged the mains depriving thousands of people of water, electricity and telephone.

Yesterday, the national emergency management organization organized relief, identifying the main needs of the population. Holiday in the British Isles, on 26 December, Boxing Day, allowed to appeal to the less affected by rains so that they come help those most affected. Hotels on the island have been little affected. In Dominica, there were more than 35 landslides. 20 Families gathered in emergency accommodation centres.

President of the regional Council, Serge Letchimy, sent yesterday morning of telegrams of support to the Prime Minister of each country. These islands of the Caribbean are now organizing relief to recover more quickly.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SAT DEC 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF YEAR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST...WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STABLE PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE BRISK
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN OBSERVED
TODAY AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FAVORS
AN UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.
THIS PATTERN HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS SO FAR TODAY. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT A MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY...MODEL TIME-SERIES SHOW A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS WELL AS INCREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN FACT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING BELOW
0.8 INCHES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME TRADE
WINDS SHOWERS EACH NIGHT BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO DEVELOP
WESTERN PR ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THIS
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN OVER
NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL CAUSE ISOLD MVFR AND OBSCD MTNS DURING
AFT TDY/SUNDAY...MAYBE A TSRA FOR W AND SW PR. SHRA TO CONT TONITE
XCP TJPS/TJMZ. WINDS BLO FL100 ENE 12-24 KT BCMG E TONITE/SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM MODERATE TO FRESH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FEET SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 83 / 30 30 30 30
STT 75 86 76 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
628 AM AST SUN DEC 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TODAY AND
NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED FAST
MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO AND USVI. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S IN COASTAL
AREAS WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS.

SHOWER INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH AN OVERALL EROSION
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...A DRIER AND MAINLY STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
REFLECTED ON THE MID AND LONG TERM GRIDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...FOLLOWED BY A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGE ALOFT WILL BREAK
DOWN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL CAUSE OBSCURED
MTNS AND BRIEF MVFR BTWN 29/16-22Z OVER TIST AND WESTERN PR...
AFFECTING TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KFT AT 10-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...A FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 77 / 20 30 30 30
STT 86 78 86 77 / 40 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

San Miguel volcano erupted kind of suddenly this morning in eastern El Salvador. There are reports of ash falling in several town of that part of the country. No detahs have been reported: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=116086