2013 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

Well latest has no Typhoon but a bunch of LPA east of the philippines...Time to focus on next year....

GFS has typhoon strength near Mindanao on Dec 28 for past 2 consecutive runs.

If the models remain consistent for the next 4 runs... then we're ON.

Oh, and on the 8th, a huge typhoon forms south of Guam and is moving straight westerly!

I need 5 days of consistency from the model for me to believe this.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Well latest has no Typhoon but a bunch of LPA east of the philippines...Time to focus on next year....

GFS has typhoon strength near Mindanao on Dec 28 for past 2 consecutive runs.

If the models remain consistent for the next 4 runs... then we're ON.

Oh, and on the 8th, a huge typhoon forms south of Guam and is moving straight westerly!

I need 5 days of consistency from the model for me to believe this.

For 5 runs already for the first storm.

[euro6208]

No longer showing a *typhoon strength on December 28 but it does show 2 Tropical Cylones, one south of thailand and the other southeast of guam.



System number 1 south of bangkok about to emerge over the BOB and number 2 south of Guam.



Number 1 dissipates in the BOB while Number 2 develops further east of Mindanao...

GFS has been very consistent in developing something in the first half of January while Euro shows nothing...

[euro6208]

Still showing the 2 TC but weaker. Development first week of January.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Still showing the 2 TC but weaker. Development first week of January.

GFS developing it as a super typhoon!

[mrbagyo]

Still showing the 2 TC but weaker. Development first week of January.

GFS developing it as a super typhoon!

GFS has been bull and bear for the past couple of runs. hahaha. I want some consistency.
it's southern hemisphere's time to shine.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Still showing the 2 TC but weaker. Development first week of January.

GFS developing it as a super typhoon!

GFS has been bull and bear for the past couple of runs. hahaha. I want some consistency.
it's southern hemisphere's time to shine.

It has been consistent. For 5 runs showing a possible cat 3 east of Visayas.

It has it moving WNW then turning West. It has that dangerous potential to grow and landfall over the Philippines... again!

[dexterlabio]

There should be at least a tropical depression by now if GFS was right. It keeps being pushed back. Yes it was kinda consistent in showing something but it's been doing so since 2 weeks ago, but where is the typhoon now?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There should be at least a tropical depression by now if GFS was right. It keeps being pushed back. Yes it was kinda consistent in showing something but it's been doing so since 2 weeks ago, but where is the typhoon now?

It is one among the clusters of cloudiness that has improving outflow close to the equator.

[euro6208]

Strongest run yet 06Z showing a 980mb typhoon south of guam!

Keeps getting pushed back but it sure is getting interesting!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC BEST TRACK DATA CHANGES:
1) Usagi peaked at 135 kts, no longer counted as a category 5.
2) Wutip peaked as a category 3 at about 100 kts.

[euro6208]

2013 Best Track out earlier this week...

Blue represents the new intensity...


Tropical Storm Sonamu Operationally 45 knots Best Track 40 knots

Tropical Depression 02W Operationally 25 knots Best Track 25 knots

Tropical Storm YAGI Operationally 55 knots Best Track 55 knots

Tropical Storm LEEPI Operationally 35 knots Best Track 35 knots

Tropical Storm BEBINCA Operationally 35 knots Best Track 35 knots

Typhoon RUMBIA Operationally 65 knots Best Track 70 knots

Typhoon SOULIK Operationally 125 knots Best Track 125 knots

Tropical Storm CIMARON Operationally 40 knots Best Track 40 knots

Tropical Storm JEBI Operationally 60 knots Best Track 60 knots

Tropical Storm MANGKHUT Operationally 40 knots Best Track 45 knots

Super Typhoon UTOR Operationally 130 knots Best Track 130 knots

Tropical Depression 13W Operationally 25 knots Best Track 30 knots

Typhoon TRAMI Operationally 75 knots Best Track 75 knots

Tropical Storm KONG REY Operationally 55 knots Best Track 50 knots

Tropical Storm TORAJI Operationally 50 knots Best Track 50 knots

Tropical Storm MANYI Operationally 60 knots Best Track 60 knots

Super Typhoon USAGI Operationally 140 knots Best Track 135 knots

Tropical Depression 18W Operationally 25 knots Best Track 25 knots

Typhoon PABUK Operationally 90 knots Best Track 90 Knots

Typhoon WUTIP Operationally 90 knots Best Track 100 knots

Tropical Storm SEPAT Operationally 35 knots Best Track 40 knots

Typhoon FITOW Operationally 90 knots Best Track 90 Knots

Typhoon DANAS Operationally 125 knots Best Track 120 knots

Typhoon NARI Operationally 105 knots Best Track 100 knots

Typhoon WIPHA Operationally 115 knots Best Track 120 knots

Super Typhoon FRANCISCO Operationally 140 knots Best Track 140 knots

Tropical Depression 27W Best Track 30 knots

Super Typhoon LEKIMA Operationally 140 knots Best Track 140 knots

Typhoon KROSA Operationally 100 knots Best Track 105 knots

Tropical Storm 30W Operationally 35 knots Best Track 35 knots

Super Typhoon HAIYAN Operationally 170 knots Best Track 170 knots

Tropical Depression PODUL Operationally 25 knots Best Track 30 knots

Tropical Depression THIRTY Operationally 30 knots Best Track 30 knots

[euro6208]

2013 Season tally:

27 Tropical storms
15 Typhoons
11 Major Typhoons
---Five category 4
---Three category 5

[euro6208]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=115958&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

Highlight of the season.

Super Typhoon Haiyan at 170 knots landfall in the Philippines- World record for sustained winds in a tropical cyclone...and possibly the strongest storm in the world...

Dvorak and ADT solidly at 8.0...

[euro6208]

It will be an interesting read on STY haiyan when the ATCR for the 2013 season comes out...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

#throwback

I remember that time when many typhoons formed over an 8-week period and that was the period when the WPAC racked up 78% of the seasonal ACE; it was mainly from typhoons Usagi, Francisco, Lekima and the record-breaking Haiyan. That was after two-thirds of the season had short-lived and weak storms (excluding Utor and Soulik).