JTWC has now upgraded this into at tropical cyclone:
WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.5S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.4S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.4S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.2S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT FORMATIVE BANDS, ALTHOUGH STILL FRAGMENTED,
HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 280600Z DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM APRF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCED
BY THE SAME STH, IS EASILY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 48. REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO WITH GFDN AS THE
WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE BUT SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z,
290300Z AND 290900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 270721Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 270730). //
