Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is 1060+ mb and building coming towards CONUS. And this is NOT lala land

[Jarodm12]

looks like latest gfs still holding onto precip however delays the cold front shows a 1055mb H in Canada though

[TheProfessor]

Really hope that winter will deliver multiple snow storms. I'm really sad now after what just happened in Arlington tonight.

[Jarodm12]

yea i see that NTXW but the models smoking, wouldnt the cold front have cleared the area and not bottle up especially with that much cold dense air seems unreasonable. Finally guys we got something to watch

[Ntxw]

yea i see that NTXW but the models smoking, wouldnt the cold front have cleared the area and not bottle up especially with that much cold dense air seems unreasonable. Finally guys we got something to watch

Not really worried about how cold it shows. I just want to see the trend of these big highs continue. A 1050-1061mb high sitting in Saskatchewan/Montana isn't going to stall a front in Kansas... It's there on both the GFS and Euro. Both have brutal cold air and it's there right now in Canada. The bigger the high the more it will push, models won't see the lower level cold until 3 or so days out anyway if it's real. Storm is there too but it's trying to eject in the central plains, the usual fail because they screw it up passing the great basin, storms like that almost always come out much further south.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Shifting focus back to tonight, is there any more moisture to be had? I don't think temperatures are going to be an issue at the rate things are going. I'm down to 32.7 here, and it's dropped more than a degree in the last hour.

Cameron

[Ntxw]

Shifting focus back to tonight, is there any more moisture to be had? I don't think temperatures are going to be an issue at the rate things are going. I'm down to 32.7 here, and it's dropped more than a degree in the last hour.

Cameron

What you've seen is pretty much the way it will be if not winding down. There will be a plume of moisture tomorrow coming up out of South Texas and perhaps the northern fringes may see a stray sleet pellet or maybe flurry in parts of central and SE Tx. NTX and NE Tx remains mostly dry after tonight.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

My confidence is high that we will see quite a departure from normal the week of the 5th. Let's see if we can ring out a nice Winter storm in the process.

[Ntxw]

My confidence is high that we will see quite a departure from normal the week of the 5th. Let's see if we can ring out a nice Winter storm in the process.

We need a Jan 62 or 49 redux. Plant that thing right on Montana and we can discuss snow and ice on the Texas gulf coast? I like the trends though, the models aren't really losing the HP system and pushing it forward instead of back, just varying strengths all still respectable.

[BigB0882]

Is the set up like it was back in early December? Will Louisiana miss out on the brunt of the cold or will this batch have more of a chance to make it further East?

[Ntxw]

Is the set up like it was back in early December? Will Louisiana miss out on the brunt of the cold or will this batch have more of a chance to make it further East?

Less of a SE ridge this time and climo is on your side. The bigger the high the better, a 1060 plows arctic air from Rio Grande to Florida, never fails. Still a way to go though so we know the drill.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Waiting on the Euro

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, i hear the wind picking up outside, i believe the cold front has just swept by by house.

[orangeblood]

wow! Been out of pocket for the past few days and come back to the GFS and Euro building the motherlode of Arctic Highs less than a week out. GFS 1062 and Euro 1056. Not going to be much to stop something of that magnitude from coming down to our neck of the woods. Origin seems to be Arctic Circle, a little north of Alaska

[Ntxw]

What's interesting about all this is that the GEFS is forecasting -50s not only in NW Canada but -50s displaced to the southern Canadian prairies in the medium range. And this is an ensemble! Wxman57 teaches us source region and it's about to get dangerously cold up there.

These models have gone mad

[srainhoutx]

Here are a couple of snippets from various NWS offices across the Region...

NWS Ft Worth/Dallas:

BOTH THE 30/00Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR
THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A
STRONG POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTH POLE AND SLIDE
SOUTH OVER NORTHERN CANADA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. THIS POLAR VORTEX IS THEN EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE IS
CURRENTLY SITTING SOMEWHERE JUST NORTH OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
THIS MERGER HELPS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
THROUGH THE PLAINS. NOW THIS IS STILL ALMOST 200 HOURS OUT IN THE
FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN PLAYERS NOT EVEN OVER OUR CONTINENT AT
THIS TIME...SO A LOT CAN CHANGE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK ARRIVES.
HOWEVER IT IS MENTIONED HERE BECAUSE OF THE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. WENT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS ARCTIC AIR
SIGNAL FOR THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH


NWS Norman, OK:

MODELS SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
LOOKS LIKE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WINTER PRECIP WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA THIS
WEEKEND... BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW MUCH SO
NOT SURE HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT THIS PRECIP MAY HAVE ON THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR MAY SURGE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



NWS Dodge City, KS

LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON DEC 30 2013

The highlight of the extended is the change to colder again
Wednesday with an increased chance for light snow or flurries and
then expecting another blast of cold air by late next weekend.

As lee troughing deepens Tuesday, temperatures should respond
nicely as increasing southerly winds and sunshine will contribute
to warmer temperatures. However, the warming will be short lived
as a clipper type system moves out of the northern plains and into
the midwest by midweek. The trend in the forecast models has been
for the clipper to be a bit farther south. The associated short
wave trough, or at least the pva anomaly, appears to have a
chance to deepen a bit more as it tops the long wave ridge
position across the eastern Pacific. The associated cold front
will blast through my forecast area on Wednesday so there should
be falling temperatures during the afternoon, at least based on
current timing. With the intrusion of Arctic air and some upper
level support, there should be at least light snow or flurries
across about the northeastern half of my area.

The remainder of the week will have slightly moderating
temperatures in advance of yet another system expected sometime
during the weekend. This system will also have a chance to amplify
with the aforementioned ridge in place. The associated Arctic
airmass will likely be even colder than the midweek system. Beyond
the weekend, some of the deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF
are looking a little scary, that is if extreme bitter cold air is
considered scary. More on that later.

[Portastorm]

Now THIS is the kind of meteogram I like! Too bad it's the GFS beyond 7 days.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

Interesting meteogram for Dallas-Ft. Worth area for the 2nd week of January.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Interesting is one way of putting it....

[Portastorm]

Seems like the long-range forecast desk out of NWS' Weather Prediction Center in DC sees a greater agreement amongst the models and a stronger suggestion that we *may* actually see Arctic air early next week in Texas. Text below.

The Grey Goose-swilling meteorologists from the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County, however, are holding tight to several wxman57 axioms:

1) Do not get too worked up over any model run beyond 4-5 days

2) Pay attention to the progged 500mb flow in the models before focusing on surface weather

3) Pay attention to temperatures in the source region from which air to impact a given region originates

*****************
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1242 AM EST MON DEC 30 2013

VALID 12Z THU JAN 02 2014 - 12Z MON JAN 06 2014

...ANOTHER COLD BLAST POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

THE SOUTHERN JOG OF THE POLAR VORTEX AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
INTO THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE APPEARS TO REPEAT BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN A
RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE NE PACIFIC-CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS...
RESPECTIVELY. THE GUIDANCE HAVE MOSTLY COME TOGETHER... FINALLY...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A MILLER TYPE B SYSTEM UNDERGOES RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS/BOMBOGENESIS OFF SE MASSACHUSETTS BY FRI/D4.
GFS/CANADIAN OUTPACE THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND ECMWF AS THE SFC LOW
ORGANIZES OFFSHORE BUT THE WPC PREFERENCE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THEY HAVE SHOWN THE LEAST WAFFLING OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF WITH THE ECENS MEAN GIVEN
A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME SPECIFICS OF THE EVOLUTION.

TO THE WEST... ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD MAINTAINING
THE RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER POLAR VORTEX TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NW CANADA TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF LIES ON
THE STRONGEST/COLDEST SIDE OF THE ENTIRE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD WITH -40C AIR AT 850MB OVER ND/MN MON/D7. ATMOSPHERIC
PROCLIVITY SEEMS TO BE TILTED TOWARD IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
OVER THE LAST SIX WEEKS SO LEANING ON THE COLDER /BUT NOT COLDEST/
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS PRUDENT. ECENS MEAN OFFERS A BEST
APPROACH.