Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Snowman67]

12z GFS is certainly not a warm run. Not the 1060 but 1057 into Montana. It is at least early December cold. We're starting to pick up on the closer range and higher resolution. We were tracking this high since 300hr GFS and it's still there. Details as how strong HP is and cold air (-45 to -50s) in southern/southwest Canada certainly will play a role as depicted by the model. If there is a 1055+ hp cell system sitting on the US/Canadian border it's not going to pretty for wxman57.

It has DFW sub 30 for the rest of it's good resolution run once the big front passes. That's a good 2+ days.

Definitely some cold air in Western Canada. Check out the lows on this site. http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/cl ... remes=Cana

[Rgv20]

What about north Texas? Any moisture to work with?

GFS is dry for North Texas but has you in a deep freeze early next week..

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of meteograms. Cold next week but no moisture to work with as dew points are well below zero.

[gboudx]

That DFW meteogram makes my skin feel drier and itchy.

[Ntxw]

12z Canadian caves to the GFS. It's been on the Euro camp weakening the ridge into Montana but now has a 1055+ HP coming down.

And even though the longer range model surface temps look like a warming trend, the signal is there from the CFS and ensembles the pattern may reload again mid month. We are also looking at beginning signs of a stratosphere warming event starting at the upper levels and not just from the troposphere, whether this evolution propagates down will have effects heading into February.

[gpsnowman]

That DFW meteogram makes my skin feel drier and itchy.

I feel you. Chap stick and hand lotion are my best friends of late. Maybe we will get a surprise source of moisture with this cold.

[gpsnowman]

Nearly 65 degrees and breezy south winds when I go to work at two. Cold, blustery north winds when I leave work at 1 am. I love January weather. Bring it!!

[Portastorm]

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

The Portastorm Weather Center released a statement earlier this morning:

"Wxman57's come-uppence is on its way. Next week at this time, Texas winter weather lovers will be ruling the roost!

GFS is coming around to the CMC and Euro scenarios from the last few days. He can show us Meteogram A, B, or Z ... doesn't matter. Those same meteograms next week will have blues and oranges on them with subfreezing temps. The PWC encourages all winter weather lovers to keep close tabs on the latest discussions both here and on your preferred forum of choice. Keep the faith. Our time is nearly upon us!"

[wxman57]

I choose to believe the 384hr GFS flow pattern today. Nice ridge building across the Plains down through Texas. Cold shunted way to the east. Big warm up coming!

[Portastorm]

That map looks suspicious to me! You must have hacked into NCEP or something.

Darn Heat Miser. Can't turn my back on you.

[Stormcenter]

Sorry but that looks like one of those GFS long range model runs during hurricane season with a Cat.5 phantom monster.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly for Tuesday running anywhere from -12F to -20F below normal for a good chunk of Texas.

[Ntxw]

I choose to believe the 384hr GFS flow pattern today. Nice ridge building across the Plains down through Texas. Cold shunted way to the east. Big warm up coming!

CFSv2 says not so fast my friend! We choose to believe this one. Alaskan warmth for you!

[Portastorm]

12z Euro looks a little wetter/colder for the southern half of Texas early next week. Hard to tell exactly with the poor resolution from the free access on Penn State's E-wall. But to me, it looks like what's going to happen is a big-league Arctic front plows deep into Texas early next week. A low pressure system will come into the state from the west by mid-week helping to develop a surface coastal low. We often see this occur in Texas when upper level energy comes across the state, maybe loses some of its identity and shears out to some extent ... but the energy helps foster the development of a coastal low. The latter will throw moisture on top of the dome of cold air. And the southern half of Texas may see some "interesting" weather in a week's time.

[weatherguy425]

And, unfortunately, not the best set-up to see frozen precipitation on the 'high-tundra' of west Texas. Though, a good chance of freezing drizzle, or flurries, behind initial weekend front.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro looks a little wetter/colder for the southern half of Texas early next week. Hard to tell exactly with the poor resolution from the free access on Penn State's E-wall. But to me, it looks like what's going to happen is a big-league Arctic front plows deep into Texas early next week. A low pressure system will come into the state from the west by mid-week helping to develop a surface coastal low. We often see this occur in Texas when upper level energy comes across the state, maybe loses some of its identity and shears out to some extent ... but the energy helps foster the development of a coastal low. The latter will throw moisture on top of the dome of cold air. And the southern half of Texas may see some "interesting" weather in a week's time.

The ECMWF shows light precipitation cranking out of SW Texas. Light precip over Ntx and heavier precip over central and SE Texas as the cold is eroding away with a forming coastal trough. Should be fun to watch.

Don't sleep on the energy surging with the arctic front either. If the cold air is further south (which I'm pretty sure all of us know it will be) the storm will likely track much further south, we are not yet int the range of such skill for them. Arctic fronts don't like to come in quietly.

[BigB0882]

Wxman57, would you mind doing a meteogram for Baton Rouge? I am on a computer without Excel so I can't follow your directions to put one together myself. I'd appreciate it. I also understand if you are busy!

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley teasing his afternoon update of finally having something to talk about. I'll check his page after my LSU Tigers bowl game is over.

[Portastorm]

And, unfortunately, not the best set-up to see frozen precipitation on the 'high-tundra' of west Texas. Though, a good chance of freezing drizzle, or flurries, behind initial weekend front.

Perhaps ... but we shouldn't sell short the desert low coming. If it maintains its identity approaching the state, there could be several inches of snow for the location of Harvard of the High Plains!

Lots of details to be ironed out between now and then. At least we know the Arctic cold looks like a strong possibility now.

[weatherguy425]

And, unfortunately, not the best set-up to see frozen precipitation on the 'high-tundra' of west Texas. Though, a good chance of freezing drizzle, or flurries, behind initial weekend front.

Perhaps ... but we shouldn't sell short the desert low coming. If it maintains its identity approaching the state, there could be several inches of snow for the location of Harvard of the High Plains!

Lots of details to be ironed out between now and then. At least we know the Arctic cold looks like a strong possibility now.

True. Just wary. Many-a coastal low have robbed moisture from west, heck, even north Texas during similar events. Of course, if it's deeper, slower, or any combination of both than progged - ballgame changed.