Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Not to forget about the Euro but it too is a 1052-1055 into Montana, unlike it's runs of the past few days into the Dakotas and slipping it southeast. Today it drives the HP straight down to TX with 1040+ centered over the state. I believe Wichita falls holds the record for the state somewhere in the upper 1040s.

Those negative dewpoints are telling, don't see them often especially -10 below dp.

[TheProfessor]

If a cut off low developed, would it cause more snow for North Texas

[Portastorm]

If a cut off low developed, would it cause more snow for North Texas

It could ... it all depends on moisture return from the Gulf ... how much moisture would be in play for a potential system, etc.. Right now the strength of the progged Arctic airmass might prove to be a negative for North Texas wintry precip with a colder, drier, deeper Arctic airmass.

Right now the models are suggesting that the deepest moisture will be in South up into Central Texas. And I'm talking about the 144-168 hr timeframe.

[Ntxw]

Agreed. With below zero dewpoints there's just nothing to work with there. North Texas' greatest chances are with the leading edge of the Arctic front, once that passes it's just dense frigid cold. You're not going to ring out moisture with -15 dewpoint. When the cold moves out that will be another shot. Central and South Texas has better chances for some precip after the dome moves in if a coastal trough forms.

[Sambucol]

Does it show pipe busting cold in the Houston area?

[Rgv20]

Hey Porta & Ntxw what do you think of the GFS having my area in the low 30s with wind chills in the low to mid 20s from Midday Tuesday to Wednesday Evening with some very light rain..

[srainhoutx]

Does it show pipe busting cold in the Houston area?

Not likely. We would need to see temperatures below 22F for more than a few hours to have pipe bursting worries down here.

[Portastorm]

Hey Porta & Ntxw what do you think of the GFS having my area in the low 30s with wind chills in the low to mid 20s from Midday Tuesday to Wednesday Evening with some very light rain..

I think you better get your winter coat and gloves ready, amigo! With a little good fortune, you may be crowing about snowing before any of us!

[Ntxw]

I say sleet in the Rio Grande

Meanwhile there is a strong cold front still about to come through the state this evening into tomorrow morning. All this talk about what's coming, but what is here is that we will have already been cold before the plunge. And another on the way for Saturday. Remember the past two years when 20s were considered cold blasts? Now it's just casual dips.

[Comanche]

How did the euro ensembles look 12z? Are they still insisting on torching the 11-15 day?

[Ntxw]

How did the euro ensembles look 12z? Are they still insisting on torching the 11-15 day?

They have reverted back to the December pattern with -PNA and trough shifting west. Texas is on the eastern edge of it while the east coast torch. PV remains in central Canada and ridging off the coast of Alaska. It's the pattern of the winter, tough to break.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

With the 1048 MB high over Ohio, an east wind coming from the Gulf and the air is STILL below freezing. Not sure if ive seen that in my lifetime. (29 years old) The gulf should provide moisture with that kind of a wind right?

Those dewpoints were pretty insane. Whats the historical significance on how low they are? Below zero in Houston is crazy.

[srainhoutx]

I will also add that the Sub Tropical Jet looks to remain rather noisy and that convection is increasing S of Hawaii. Also the updated Day 3-7 surface charts are showing the Arctic front reaching the Caribbean Sea and clearing Cuba. Areas across the higher elevations of the Sierra Range S and W of Monterrey Mexico look to add to their current 20 year high totals they are currently experiencing due to the moisture streaming off the Pacific across Mexico. We are not seeing a typical Winter pattern that we have grown accustomed to the past 10 years.

[Big O]

Day 15 European Ensemble Control Run is a thing of beauty. There is a NE Pacific Ridge extending north into Southern Alaska and a DEEP trough into western-central CONUS apparently progressing eastward. Height anomalies are ridiculous over NM, western Texas, and the Texas Panhandle. Cutoff low near the Baja seems to be a catalyst for this progged pattern. Cold temperatures are shown over most of the west, western Texas, and parts of the Panhandle. The question is does the cold air progress east to engulf Texas?

However, keep in mind that this is only one ensemble member's attempt to forecast the Day 15 pattern. This will certainly change, but there are potential threats looming in the Day 10-15 period.

_________________
The above post and any post by BigO is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

Here is a snippet from this afternoon's AFD from EWX:

WAA/OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

Yeah ... showers ... try snow showers, fellas.

[Ntxw]

I think wxman57 wrote this. They seem unimpressed and already talking about warm ups.

FWD discussion this afternoon


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CST WED JAN 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE. HAVE LOWERED TONIGHT/S WINDS JUST A
BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH NEGATES THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
HAVE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THE RAP/NAM BUT BELOW THE GFS. IT WILL
STILL BE GUSTY...AND IT WILL STILL FEEL COLD WITH WIND CHILLS 8-13
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TX NEAR SUNRISE. AS WINDS DIE
DOWN AND CLOUDS DEPART...THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE THE COLDEST OF
THE WEEK WITH 20S AND SOME ISOLATED TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS. GFS/ECMWF APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS
TO HOW FAST THE TUE/WED/THU WARM UP WILL OCCUR. THE GFS HOLDS
COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA MID WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE
FLOW BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS
ENTERING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. GFS DEPICTS THIS TROUGH SLOWER
AND WEAKER...AND DELAYS THE SOUTH FLOW FOR NORTH TX. HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISE POSITION WITH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES. ECMWF ALSO
BRINGS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FASTER THAN GFS...BUT HAVE LEFT THE LOW
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTACT. 84

[TeamPlayersBlue]

From the looks of things, and the anticipated SSW event, this will be a memorable month. The entire month. Not just a part of it. Im interested what the STJ looks like. If anything, hopefully it wont be ice for us. Which from the STJ it typically is.

A story i wanted to share with you guys, i was reminded by srain talking about the front going into the Carib sea. My mother is from Jamaica and we traveled there every Christmas. One trip in '96 i believe there was a massive arctic front and the high in Miami that day was 55. Anyway, the flight from Mia to Kingston was by far the bumpiest flight of all time. Ive never had a flight close to that again. I flew often, and still do but i was scared to death on that plane. Well the front made it almost all the way to Jamaica the next day, always curious as to what the Upper level winds were like that day.

CN: Had a terrifying flight flying through an arctic front south of Miami to Jamaica

[Portastorm]

I fly a fair amount for my work and some of my roughest rides have been in vicinities of cold fronts and, especially, upper level lows. Much worse than going around summertime storms and such.

Meanwhile, I suspect we're going to see many Texas-based NWSFOs changing their collective tune in the next 24-48 hours if the model consensus about next week continues and solidifies.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Imagine it could actually be colder than progged too if GFS continues to underestimate the cold

[wxman57]

Wxman57, would you mind doing a meteogram for Baton Rouge? I am on a computer without Excel so I can't follow your directions to put one together myself. I'd appreciate it. I also understand if you are busy!

Here you go. A bit cold next Tue-Wed: