Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Imagine it could actually be colder than progged too if GFS continues to underestimate the cold

Or, maybe, it will be warmer than the GFS is indicating!

[ronyan]

Imagine it could actually be colder than progged too if GFS continues to underestimate the cold

There have been plenty of -40s in NW and North Central Canada in the past few days so the source region is prime for cold air lovers. I include myself in the category of "cold weather lover" but I wouldn't want to be in Eureka, Nunavut today, -49F there.

[ndale]

Have a fb friend in Wichita Ks. talking about the temprature dropping in the last 3 hrs, just checked the nws forecast there for tonight and they have a 100% chance of snow and temp of 9 degrees. If some of that would just move on south....well maybe not the 9 degrees.

[dhweather]

Well, there's one positive from sub-freezing weather with NO precip nor any hope of it. DIE BUGS DIE!

[Ntxw]

Goes west disk image of the Pacific. One can clearly see the Subtropical jet linkage from the gulf coast through the tropical Pacific Ocean. It may strengthen as the MJO moves through the right phases and enhances the connection. 30 day SOI has gone negative, indication wetter times ahead.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Well, there's one positive from sub-freezing weather with NO precip nor any hope of it. DIE BUGS DIE!

YES! I've never in my life seen so many gnats. Cant even open the windows on the days it did get unseasonably warm because they come through the screen. They are all over my area today. This, after the frigid temps a few weeks ago.

What will it take to kill them off??

[gboudx]

Well, there's one positive from sub-freezing weather with NO precip nor any hope of it. DIE BUGS DIE!

YES! I've never in my life seen so many gnats. Cant even open the windows on the days it did get unseasonably warm because they come through the screen. They are all over my area today. This, after the frigid temps a few weeks ago.

What will it take to kill them off??

I use a product from domyownpestcontrol.com. After spraying the windows and rest of the exterior, those gnats are gone. They died by the thousands on the patio.

[Ntxw]

While we await the 0z GFS and what it may have in store as the closer range approaches, lets talk about some powerful high pressure systems, or anticyclones. In the summer they are our worst enemies but in the winter they bring some of the most prolific cold into our home state. The bigger the high the more likely they will deal severe cold. Even at a glancing blow it's impressive. Most winters we typically don't see them go over 1045. 1035+ will bring cold snaps and the arctic attacks are usually in the 1040s. Once you get above 1050 that's the prolonged freeze type stuff. The bigger ones like to push against the flow and do what they want sliding from the North Pole right down the rockies to Texas and Oklahoma.

Some notable anticyclone systems:

Feb 2011: 1052 in Montana, most of us can remember the effects

December 1989: This one was big being around 1055-1057 into Montana/Dakotas, even perhaps 1060 near the US/Canadian border

December 1983: The big daddy of them all *in modern times* being 1064 and is the current record holder for the contiguous states

January 1962: This wasn't as deep as 1983 but was a much more vast HP system and arguably the largest in scope being 1063mb <-famous for being McFarland's greatest study case

February 1899: Not a lot of data on this one but I've read there was a pressure reading of 1064 in Assiniboia (Saskatchewan) so likely it could've been anywhere between 1055-1070 into the states but no definitive data. What made this cold snap so intense was the numerous big HPs that came before the big one.

Another notable HP system would be January 1949 (DFW's coldest reading in the 20th century) but lack of data. Using HPC Narr and comparing it to some others this one may have been 1055+ similar to the 89 HP

[Rgv20]

January 1962 holds the official all time record low temperature for Rio Grande City of 10F! Not enough data for RGC in 1899 but I read that the best guess is a low of 7F if I recall correctly.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS is coming in a bit stronger with a 1055mb Arctic High dropping S from Western Canada. Also the front is arriving faster with a trough axis a bit further W and -20F anomalies heading further S into the Central Plains. The short wave is digging S -vs- the flatter solutions we were seeing with GFS the past few days.

[BigB0882]

1055 would rival what we saw in 1989. Not sure if it means the same type of cold, surely there are other important factors than just the high pressure. We shall see. What is interesting is this is getting closer and closer, if the GFS doesn't lose it within the next couple of days then I think it may be go-time. Lots of model runs between now and then, though.

[weatherguy425]

Not that I find the 0Z GFS operational output probable, but boy, talk about transient.

[BigB0882]

What does transient mean in weather terms? lol

[Jarodm12]

and of course the 00z guidance comes in warmer but wetter wonderful compromise not really. Seems like you'd expect more from such a cold air mass but we do live in Texas

[Portastorm]

Not that I find the 0Z GFS operational output probable, but boy, talk about transient.

My thoughts exactly ... nothing like consistency.

[weatherguy425]

What does transient mean in weather terms? lol

12z Run:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/18/jtnk.png/


00z Run:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/827/uq7s.png/

The main trough (big dip in the jet stream) on the 00z GFS, the most recent run, is deeper but also more progressive. Both images above are valid for the same time period (next Monday evening), just different forecast 'runs'. According to tonight's 00z run, the cold air-mass would be very short-lived, and easily eroded along the Rockies and Central Plains - at leas with the first 'batch'. Of course, the odds of the run verifying to a 'T', are slim to none.

[MississippiWx]

What does transient mean in weather terms? lol

12z Run:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/18/jtnk.png/


00z Run:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/827/uq7s.png/

The main trough (big dip in the jet stream) on the 00z GFS, the most recent run, is deeper but also more progressive. Both images above are valid for the same time period (next Monday evening), just different forecast 'runs'. According to tonight's 00z run, the cold air-mass would be very short-lived, and easily eroded along the Rockies and Central Plains - at leas with the first 'batch'. Of course, the odds of the run verifying to a 'T', are slim to none.

More progressive like the Euro...

The cold will probably last a day or so longer than models show since it is such a strong blast. Still looks like the coldest air that we have seen in quite a while in the Southeast.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

[
How long has the cold air been building? Or has it not start building yet.

-50C James Bay, Quebec.










A little less terrifying:


But the James Bay temp was the actual temp.

[TheProfessor]

Ha! I could imagine wxman57 trapped in that truck trying to use his heat powers to melt it but with no avail.

[richtrav]

:uarrow: January 1962 holds the official all time record low temperature for Rio Grande City of 10F! Not enough data for RGC in 1899 but I read that the best guess is a low of 7F if I recall correctly.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ext ... eb1899.pdf

It was 7 degrees in 1899 (pg. 76)