Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SUN DEC 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVR THE NE
CARIBBEAN OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS REACHING MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON
FRI. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THU THEN WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FIRST THREE DAYS OF 2014 AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE REGION ACTING TO ERODE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHEN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL THE RISK OF ISOLD SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
MON AS MOISTURE IS MARGINAL BUT TUE AND WED LOOK PARTICULARLY DRY
WITH WATER VAPOR CONTENT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AN INCH OR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN ON SAT AS POLAR VORTICES MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TRADES ALSO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE
RELATED ACTIVITY. IN SUMMARY...VERY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST THREE DAYS
OF 2014 WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SFC WINDS E17G23KT MON-WED DURING
DAYTIME HOURS XCPT WEAKER AT JMZ DUE TO MORE LAND FRICTION.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT MOST OF THE
WATERS. TRADES WEAKEN ON THU WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 77 84 / 20 20 10 20
STT 78 86 77 86 / 20 20 10 20

[Macrocane]

Updated pictures and satellite imagery about San Miguel volcano eruption in El Salvador: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=116086&p=2363576#p2363576

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru the PR/VI area during the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST MON DEC 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE. ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE
FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY BUT LEAVES A TRAILING RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO ITS CURRENT POSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID
LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. PATCHES AND BANDS OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL BRING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS OCCURRED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LIKE AN ARROW INTO PUERTO
RICO FROM HUMACAO TO CIDRA. RADAR SHOWED NO MORE THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE SUB
TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. ALSO OF NOTE WERE UNDULATIONS FROM THE NORTH THAT WERE
MODULATING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VERTICAL MOTION. THE INTERACTION OF
THESE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER
NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO
OCCUR AND MUST CONCLUDE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING FROM TUESDAY TO MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IN ARRIVING AT POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT NEW YEARS EVE
WILL BE SHOWER FREE IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. NOTABLY THIS
IS NOT AT ALL A DEVIATION FROM OUR LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY. ALMOST ALL
OF THE MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED BELOW 700 MB AND HENCE SHOWERS
WILL BE BRIEF AND AMOUNTS LIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS TRADE WINDS AND
WINDS UP TO 700 MB WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...WOULD LOOK FOR FRIDAY TO BE THE DRIEST
DAY OF THIS WEEK AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WELL. WINDS AND
MOISTURE INCREASE THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...BUT OTHER THAN THE
SHEAR MONOTONY OF IT ALL THIS SHOULD BE BENIGN SINCE NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE AT
TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL AS IN
AND AROUND TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND DRIVE SEAS
HIGHER. CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE BORDERLINE
MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO HAVE DEVELOPED BY TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY BUT SEAS RETURN ON THURSDAY
IN THE ATLANTIC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 86 77 / 30 30 40 40
STT 86 77 87 77 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST MON DEC 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PASSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS...EMBEDDED
IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS PART OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED MOSTLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE OF SHORT DURATION AND THE
ASSOCIATED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE ORDER
OF 1.00 TO 1.40 INCHES DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THESE RELATIVELY
LOW VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE...DO NOT
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE FIRST DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE BORDERLINE EARLY TONIGHT BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO HAVE DEVELOPED BY EARLY TUESDAY. THUS...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN TO BE IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 72 83 / 30 40 40 40
STT 75 86 75 86 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning and happy new year 2014!

Some scattered showers will move thru PR and VI during the first days of 2014. I will be with my family on a mini vacation the next 2 days so I will be back on January 2nd.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
612 AM AST TUE DEC 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS OUT OF THE EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN WHILE THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FADE AND GIVE WAY TO A NEW RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES PASS THROUGH SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
THEN RETURN IN A WEAKENED STATE BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MID
LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. PASSING HIGHS AND DEVELOPING LOWS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE ONLY MODULATION TO
THE GENERAL PATTERN BUT WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN SPEED OR
DIRECTION OF THE EASTERLY FLOW. PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PASS
THROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOWER MOISTURE AIR MASS IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHALLOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE CURRENT GFS
SEEMS A LITTLE OUT OF ALIGNMENT WITH WHAT THE SATELLITE IS
SHOWING. MIMIC PRODUCT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECT THE VERY
DRY MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT MAY MISLEAD THE CASUAL
OBSERVER INTO BELIEVING THAT SHOWERY WEATHER HAS ENDED. NAM5 SEEMS TO
HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE
COVERED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF PUERTO RICO WITH 70 TO 95 PERCENT COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. BOTH THE 31/00 AND THE 31/06Z RUNS ARE
SHOWING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT EAST FLOW OVER THE SAME AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE LATER TONIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT WILL LEAVE UP TO ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ON THE SLOPES OF EL YUNQUE AND PROBABLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH IN SAN JUAN. THIS BRINGS LIKELY SHOWERS
TO NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO ON NEW YEAR`S EVE AND OUR TYPICAL
OVERNIGHT SHADOW IN THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS CONTINUE ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
ABATED ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT STREETS
WILL BE DAMP. A DRY PERIOD FOR FRIDAY THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL IN THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT MOISTURE ON EITHER
SIDE OF FRIDAY IS RAMPING UP TO THE WEEKEND...GIVING A LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL NOT BRING AT LEAST SOME MORE SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW MOIST
PATCHES MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VARYING LITTLE SINCE EARLY DECEMBER WITH
HIGHS AT THE SAN JUAN AIRPORT RANGING ONLY FROM 85 TO 88 SINCE 8
DECEMBER. SO FAR THE GFS MOS OUTPUT OF THE MEX HAS BEEN RUNNING
TOO LOW BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT IT IS STARTING TO COME BACK IN
LINE. NEVERTHELESS HAVE RAISED THE LAST FEW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BY 4 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE LONG RANGE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES AND HAVE MAINTAINED 74 TO
76 DEGREES FOR SAN JUAN AND NOT STRAYED FAR FROM 68 DEGREES AT
1500 FEET ON MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES VARY ONLY BY
8 M FOR NEXT 7 DAYS WITH TODAY`S TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE MEAN
FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF LOCAL ISLANDS. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
10 TO 20 KT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AFT
01/03Z IN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL RISE SOMEWHAT TODAY AS WINDS INCREASE. INNER
WATERS WERE BELOW 6 FEET AS OF 5 AM AST AND 7 FOOT SEAS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE WINDIEST PORTIONS OF THESE ZONES. WINDS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS CONTINUE IN THE 17 TO 21 KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...DECEMBER 2013 IS LIKELY TO END AS THE 3RD AND 5TH
WETTEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT THE CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT (TIST) AND
THE HENRY E. ROHLSEN AIRPORT (TISX) WITH 7.30" AND 6.58"
RESPECTIVELY. THE WETTEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT TIST WAS DECEMBER
1960 WITH 9.87"...WHILE DECEMBER 1975 WAS THE WETTEST DECEMBER ON
RECORD AT TISX WITH 9.07".

2013 IS LIKELY TO END AS THE 4TH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AT THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA AND ALSO TIST WITH 85.10" AND 55.18" RESPECTIVELY.
2010 WAS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AT THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AS
WELL AS TIST WITH 89.50" AND 61.38" RESPECTIVELY. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURE...2013 LIKELY TO END AS THE 6TH WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD
AT THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.3F.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 83 74 / 40 60 60 60
STT 87 78 86 77 / 30 40 40 70

[cycloneye]

Happy New Year 2014 to all our friends in the Caribbean and in CentralAmerica.

msbee

Patti

Gustywind

Macrocane

Caribwxgurl

Firebird

abajan

BZSTORM

HurricaneFan

BatzVI

caribepr

bvigal

chrisjslucia

Jimsot

[Jimsot]

HAPPY NEW YEAR Everyone!

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The same pattern of trade wind showers will continue for PR and VI for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST THU JAN 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
EAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TODAY INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING THE UPPER
LEVELS RELATIVELY STABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE
CAUSING PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL OUTLYING ISLANDS AS
WELL AS NORTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED
FOR THIS PATTERN OF EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS PATTERN OF PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING
IN WITH THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...LIKE THE SHOWERS WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING...SO ALTHOUGH RAIN IS EXPECTED...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLYING AREA DURING THE
ENTIRE PRD. HOWEVER PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/VCSH WILL CONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. PASSING -SHRA WILL BRING BRIEF
SFC WND GUST OF 20-25 KTS...E-NE TRADES.


&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET
WHILE OUTER BUOYS ARE GETTING UP TO 7 FEET. IN ADDITION...THE
WINDS REPORTED ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 18 AND 22 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 85 73 / 30 20 20 40
STT 85 75 86 75 / 30 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST THU JAN 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
TEMPORARILY SHOVED EASTWARD TONIGHT/FRIDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE
TRADE WINDS TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. THAT SUGGESTS THE MOST SHOWERS
WILL BE AT EASTERN PR FROM FAJARDO SOUTHWARD VS. THE NORTH AND
EAST AS OCCURRED LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

SEVERAL PATCHES OF DEEPER MOISTURE STILL MOVING WEST IN THE TRADE
WINDS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AIDED AS THE
MOVE UP INTO EL YUNQUE. BUT DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
THE NEXT (DEEPER) AREA OF MOISTURE THE MODELS EXPECT TO ARRIVE FRI
NIGHT...MOST OF WHICH WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF PR/USVI. ONE
MORE ARE OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 43W SOUTH OF 20N. GFS
TRIES TO DIMINISH THIS AND ITS MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE ARRIVAL
LATE SAT. BUT THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE RECENT HISTORY SO AM SKEPTICAL
OF ITS DEMISE.

OTHERWISE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 20N
AND 30N IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROBUST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN RESULTANT WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 03/12Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
THE HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE
WINDS OVER PR/USVI...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TOO. BUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES BY IN
THE WEST ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISCONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 86 72 84 / 40 20 70 40
STT 74 86 75 86 / 40 30 70 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The trade wind showers will continue to move thru PR and VI this weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST FRI JAN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
FAST MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN COASTAL AREAS WITH TRADE WINDS OF UP TO 10 MPH.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 850MB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS
OF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF LOCAL
ISLANDS. SHOWER INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT BRIEFLY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK AS A WIND SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND ANCHORING NORTH
OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME VCSH...DUE TO CONTINUED
TRADE WIND SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE FLYING AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
SHRA WILL BE BRIEF AS STRONG E TO ESE WIND FLOW CONTINUES...AT 20-30
KTS JUST ABV SFC TO 20K FT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS TRADE
WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN NEXT WEEK...BRINGING BACK CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 72 84 72 / 30 50 50 40
STT 86 74 86 74 / 30 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

Important articule about comparisons between Hurricane Thomas and the Christmas trough that caused many problems in some islands of the Lesser Antilles chain.

Was last weeks devastating trough system in the Eastern Caribbean cause more devastation than Hurricane Tomas?

For now, the trough system, which caused serious damage in St Lucia, St Vincent and Dominica, is being considered by some to be at least on par with the 2010 hurricane, and possibly worse.

Tomas led to the deaths of 14 people in St Lucia and more than 70 across the region; thus far the storm, which caused 171.1mm of rainfall in a 24-hour period, has caused five deaths in St Lucia.

“There is no doubt that people tell you that this is more serious than Tomas,” said St Lucia Prime Minister Dr Kenny Anthony. “Tomas was a combination of water and heavy winds. The fact that a bridge at Piaye was damaged or for that matter a bridge in Canaries was damaged, in the minds of the persons there, that was more serious than Tomas.”

St Lucia has already begun recovery work to rebuild damaged infrastructure on the island.

“When I talk to residents in my constituency who suffered a lot of flooding, in some instances as high as six feet, they swear that it was more serious than Tomas,” Anthony said. “It may also be the case that there were very special factors in Vieux Fort that led to that situation.”

The Prime Minister cautioned, however, that the devastation on the island was not as widespread as the 2011 storm, but was “isolated and in some instances to the communities near the rivers.”

http://www.caribjournal.com/2014/01/02/ ... ane-tomas/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST FRI JAN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF
THE AREA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS HAS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

HOWEVER...FOR MONDAY...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS WINDS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
THEREFORE...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME VCSH ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PR. WINDS FROM THE SFC UP TO 10 KFT FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS TRADE WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE. HOWEVER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK...BRINGING BACK CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 72 84 / 50 50 40 20
STT 75 85 77 86 / 50 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The trade wind showers will continue to move thru PR and VI this weekend. Additional increase of the showers is expected by Monday as a trough moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST SAT JAN 4 2014

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF
THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF AND THE
LEEWARD COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF THESE PASSING
SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTED THE USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WE SHOULD EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
A MORE WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW LOCATED AT AROUND
14.50 NORTH AND 46.8 WEST...WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
REACH OUR LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THAT PERIOD. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL HELP THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE FAST OVER
THE ISLANDS...MAINTAINING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOW FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT THEREFORE EXPECT MORE PONDERING OF WATER DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA PASSING PR THIS MRNG BEFORE SUNRISE...NOT OFTEN
REDUCING VFR CONDS BUT SOME OBSCD MTNS. SHRA WL RETURN AT TIMES
TDY/TONITE...GENERALLY VFR WI ISOLD MVFR IN SHRA. WINDS FL010-FL100
E 20-32 KT BCMG ESE TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BECOME FROM FRESH TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THIS
WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. EXPECT
SEAS TO REACH THE 7 FEET LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS MOMENT MARINERS
ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AND TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
COULD BE ISSUED FOR MAINLY THE LOCAL OFF SHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 84 73 / 60 50 40 60
STT 85 77 86 76 / 60 40 30 60

[Gustywind]

Happy New Year 2014 to all our friends in the Caribbean and in CentralAmerica.

msbee

Patti

Gustywind

Macrocane

Caribwxgurl

Firebird

abajan

BZSTORM

HurricaneFan

BatzVI

caribepr

bvigal

chrisjslucia

Jimsot

HAPPY NEW YEAR for our SUPERMAN: CYCLONEYE . Best wishes Luis, thanks for the awesome daily job! Let's be ready for the next 2014 hurricane season

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST SAT JAN 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED FAST MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN COASTAL AREAS WITH
TRADE WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 850MB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS
OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF LOCAL ISLANDS.

INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ENHANCING MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES
NORTH OF THE AREA...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FCST PERIOD. SHRA
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF VCSH ACROSS ALL
LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SFC UP TO 10
KFT AT 20-30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS TONIGHT...
CREATING CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 84 / 30 20 60 60
STT 77 86 77 86 / 30 20 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The trade wind showers will continue to move thru PR and VI today. An increase in moisture is expected on Monday as a trough moves by.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST SUN JAN 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGES ARE SHOWING A
DECREASED ON SHOWER COVERAGE...A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND MOVE ON SHORE...MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEREFORE AFTER MONDAY EXPECT
A SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH FAST PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TDY/TONITE. EVEN MOST ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL NOT REDUCE
CONDS. WINDS FL010-FL150 E 20-30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS...CREATING CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFF SHORE WATERS AND WATERS SURROUNDING THE
USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 20 60 60 40
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SUN JAN 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AMPLIFIES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RIDGE PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MOVES SOUTH. FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES
NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S IN COASTAL AREAS
WITH TRADE WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH.

A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH MODERATE
RAINFALL OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...THE USVI AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT RETURNS AND HOLDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 850MB WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF LOCAL
ISLANDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH
RE-ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AT
LEAST UNTIL LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 06/10Z...THEREFORE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TKPK...TNCM...TIST...TISX AND EASTERN PR. EASTERLY
WINDS FM SFC UP TO 4 KFT AT 15-30 KT AND BTW 4-10 KFT AT 30-43 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE FRESH TRADE
WINDS...CREATING CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 60 60 40 20
STT 76 86 77 86 / 60 60 50 50

[Macrocane]

Happy new year everyone!!! I hope 2014 is full of blessings for you all.

I've updated the Central American cold surges thread with the observations from the December 24-27 event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2364389#p2364389

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
958 PM AST SUN JAN 5 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
THIS EVENING LEAVING ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT THE
SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS.

SATELLITE DERIVED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOMORROW MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A GOOD INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT
ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE MOVING QUICKLY...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS IS WHAT
IS FORECAST FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO TOMORROW.
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 AM AST MON JAN 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES WEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. A
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...SATELLITE DERIVED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES...DECREASING AGAIN BELOW 1.0
INCH BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY AND
THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. A GENERALLY FAIR
AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT RETURNS AND HOLDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA TO INCR NXT FEW HRS LEEWARD ISLANDS AND USVI WI
ASSOC BRF MVFR/IFR. THESE CONDS WVFR WL OVERSPREAD PR THIS MRNG TOO
WI OBSCD MTNS...HOWEVER VFR TO REMAIN DOMINANT COND. WINDS FL010-
FL150 E-ESE 20-30 KT DECR SLOWLY LATE TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE WITH WINDS OF UP
TO 21 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 82 72 / 80 50 50 40
STT 85 75 85 76 / 70 50 30 40