Texas Winter 2013-2014

[hriverajr]

If the models come to fruition, the pattern is not conducive to the cold weather having staying power, especially in south and southeast Texas.

[Kennethb]

Yes, we have the cold, but need something i.e. -NAO to maintain/sustain the cold air. I have seen these patterns of the past several years where we get the quick jabs of cold air and then a rather quick moderation as these highs move off to the east rather quickly.

[TheProfessor]

So is there no chance at North Texas seeing winter precipitation early next week? Also the gfs shows what looks like a huge winter storm for Kansas all the way down to Central Texas.

[wxman57]

So is there no chance at North Texas seeing winter precipitation early next week? Also the gfs shows what looks like a huge winter storm for Kansas all the way down to Central Texas.

No snow early next week, just no moisture. GFS does indicate snow for Texas in 12-13 days. You can believe that, of course...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

To respond to Porta and the heat miser, i understand where both of you are coming from.
Portas side - yes the cold air from the shots we've had even this year has stayed around for a very long time. Days after the cold front, we were hovering around freezing for lows here in Sugar Land even though the NAO was positive.

With that said.....

I think the 'core' of this cold air is going to glance us, its just soooo cold that are temps wont seem like a glance. I think the winds could make a switch quicker than normal so its possible we are in the 60's quickly with onshore flow. I commented days ago about the onshore flow with the high in Ohio and we were STILL around freezing here in Houston. I thought that was impressive. Historically, what is the SST anomaly in the Gulf right now? With a chilly gulf, that will be good to limit tornadoes in the spring time. I think it was 2011 where there was a record low.... right? Many many different variables involved but it should help. Keeps temps down here a bit going into late spring.

[vbhoutex]

Attempting to put aside my cold bias ... I'm at a loss to understand why people would think Texas temps will moderate so quickly next week after starting out so cold? Honestly ... if you've made any attempt to follow weather over the years here, especially winter weather, these Arctic/polar airmasses don't erode in a day or two. And the models ALWAYS seem to forecast that happening. As much as we see a winter storm in the GFS at Day 12, we see an Arctic airmass eroded after a day or two. Neither seldom verify.

All I'm saying here is that if you believe the depth of the cold air to impact the state early next week, then you're really kidding yourself if you think it'll be gone by Wednesday. I don't care what computer model is showing it ... it's bunk.

This is where you and I agree Porta. I am certainly not even as versed as you are with the models, but that isn't all I use to "forecast". I read other mets I know and other afds as well as experience from 40+ years in Houston and watching the weather. The cold air coming down to add to our already cold air is not going to modify much with the snow cover we currently have to the North of TX.
I am seeing enough indicators and conversations concerning the mid and long range to push me to a colder bias, at least for the time being. time will tell and I will own up to my "mistakes" if I am wrong.

[Comanche]

Quick sort of off topic question here; This -EPO/-WPO regime that has been a driver of the cold this winter, what does that do to summer temps for the CONUS? Or better question may be; if that giant warm pool near the GOA sticks around into summer, what would that typically do for summer CONUS temps?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Here a gift for you fellows......a heads up re what's coming. (it must have been filmed in Texas).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6zaVYWLTkU

[dhweather]

The models overall do a poor job with cold air masses. The cold fronts often arrive faster, they are often colder airmasses. It's possible for the air to moderate that quickly, but I just don't see it happening.

Since there is ABSOLUTE ZERO chance of precip, sub-zero dew points, I don't want this airmass. The static electricity is a huge annoyance for me, along with dried out skin, etc.


The only redeeming value it has is the chance it kills more bugs. DIE BUGS DIE! Especially you nasty disease spreading mosquitos. The lack of winter last year allowed them to emerge en mass in the summer. Kill them all, their larvae, their unborn great grandchildren. Project mosquito elimination 2014 has begun!

[Portastorm]

Attempting to put aside my cold bias ... I'm at a loss to understand why people would think Texas temps will moderate so quickly next week after starting out so cold? Honestly ... if you've made any attempt to follow weather over the years here, especially winter weather, these Arctic/polar airmasses don't erode in a day or two. And the models ALWAYS seem to forecast that happening. As much as we see a winter storm in the GFS at Day 12, we see an Arctic airmass eroded after a day or two. Neither seldom verify.

All I'm saying here is that if you believe the depth of the cold air to impact the state early next week, then you're really kidding yourself if you think it'll be gone by Wednesday. I don't care what computer model is showing it ... it's bunk.

This is where you and I agree Porta. I am certainly not even as versed as you are with the models, but that isn't all I use to "forecast". I read other mets I know and other afds as well as experience from 40+ years in Houston and watching the weather. The cold air coming down to add to our already cold air is not going to modify much with the snow cover we currently have to the North of TX.
I am seeing enough indicators and conversations concerning the mid and long range to push me to a colder bias, at least for the time being. time will tell and I will own up to my "mistakes" if I am wrong.

Should the weather behave like the computer models currently suggest ... I'll have no problem coming on here next week at this time and saying: "You know what folks? I was wrong." And it'll be yet another gee-whiz moment for me with regards to the weather (I probably have thousands of those!) as I'll be amazed at how quickly the atmosphere would have turned around.

Meanwhile, I'm with dhweather on the killing bugs front and the no static electricity front! It is a shame to waste such good cold air without any precipitation.

[gpsnowman]

I don't think the DFW area will hit the forecasted high of mid-forties today. Still in the mid to upper thirties area wide. Probably hit lower forties but the sun is going down soon. Cold morning on tap for Friday.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL BRING A STRONG COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MODIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLDER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO SEEM SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS POST FRONTAL ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARMER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING
AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN WEDNESDAY.

[gboudx]

Since there is ABSOLUTE ZERO chance of precip, sub-zero dew points, I don't want this airmass. The static electricity is a huge annoyance for me, along with dried out skin, etc.

Steve McCauley is still saying his Stat Method is hitting a 50% coverage of rain next Wednesday/Thursday. And a 20% chance of that being freezing rain; 0% chance of snow.

Latest data sets are in, and they still indicate a farily decent shot at rain next Wednesday/Thursday. Stat Method is holding on to a 50% coverage. Also, it is holding on to an 80% probability that it will be rain and only a 20% probability of it being freezing rain (and 0% for snow). So the precipitration TYPE will continue to be the question mark in the forecast.

[srainhoutx]

So now FDW introduces a chance of freezing rain for early next Wednesday morning. Oh how those models do waffle.

[wxman57]

Steve McCauley is still saying his Stat Method is hitting a 50% coverage of rain next Wednesday/Thursday. And a 20% chance of that being freezing rain; 0% chance of snow.

Looks like there may be a very narrow window prior to or near sunrise Wednesday when there could be some light freezing drizzle up there in the D-FW area. But the precip is forming as strong warm advection commences aloft. Temps will steadily rise during the day on Wednesday to well above freezing at the surface and into the 50s just above the surface.

[WeatherGuesser]

The only redeeming value it has is the chance it kills more bugs. DIE BUGS DIE! Especially you nasty disease spreading mosquitos. The lack of winter last year allowed them to emerge en mass in the summer. Kill them all, their larvae, their unborn great grandchildren. Project mosquito elimination 2014 has begun!

I see that mentioned a lot, but if it were true, why are there mosquitoes in Michigan and other states that have cold winters?

[MGC]

I think the only thing that will kill the bugs is when the sun burns out. Does look to be some decent snow cover in the great plains....snow cover all the way down to Kanasas and Missouri...so little modification to the artic air IMO. Hope 57 can dial in a pattern change and get this cold air out of here....I have a suntan to work on...MGC

[Portastorm]

All this talk about bugs and cold and whether or not cold weather has any real effect ... I did find this relatively recent piece from a newspaper in West Virginia.

http://www.journal-news.net/page/content.detail/id/588366/Does-killing-frost-kill-Insects-.html?nav=5067

It appears the answer to the question is: maybe.

[TheProfessor]

This is a little off topic, but some of you may have heard that at&t stadium will host the national championship game next year. This will be an important one. Its the start of a new NCAA era they are now moving to a playoff system so It will be the first National Championship Game of the era.It will also be the first time a National Championship will be hosted by a non-BCS bowl. So with this information I will make an uneducated non-reasearched guess that there will be a Major winter storm occurring in North Texas within a week of this event. In fact it won't just be a major one but a record breaking one at that too!

[WeatherGuesser]

All I know is that I've seen Michigan Skeeters that could carry two Texas Skeeters and their luggage.