Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

All this talk about bugs and cold and whether or not cold weather has any real effect ... I did find this relatively recent piece from a newspaper in West Virginia.

http://www.journal-news.net/page/content.detail/id/588366/Does-killing-frost-kill-Insects-.html?nav=5067

It appears the answer to the question is: maybe.

Wxman57 said about mosquitoes that cold just makes them angry. I think this is true about most bugs, cold kills a lot of them but when it warms back up they come out in groves and they are nasty, angry, and full of energy after the long slumber!

[Ntxw]

I still think the models are mishandling the coming cold air mass. They are all driving the big HP into Texas and the source region is very frigid. I've never seen such a big high just sit there and die. I wonder if this is the medium range fluke they tend to lose things and by this weekend they will adjust...just my two cents I could be wrong but it's hard to believe.

[jeff]

Quick sort of off topic question here; This -EPO/-WPO regime that has been a driver of the cold this winter, what does that do to summer temps for the CONUS? Or better question may be; if that giant warm pool near the GOA sticks around into summer, what would that typically do for summer CONUS temps?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images ... 131222.gif

It is thought that warm N Pacific waters tend to favor drought in the southern plains especially coupled with a warm phase MDO in the Atlantic...and that could explain the multi year ongoing drought in TX. Such warm N Pacific waters also tend to favor Pacific La Nina and yet more dryness for TX. The SST's across the globe today look very similar to the 1950's and in TX we all know what the 50's brought.

[Ntxw]

Quick sort of off topic question here; This -EPO/-WPO regime that has been a driver of the cold this winter, what does that do to summer temps for the CONUS? Or better question may be; if that giant warm pool near the GOA sticks around into summer, what would that typically do for summer CONUS temps?

It is thought that warm N Pacific waters tend to favor drought in the southern plains especially coupled with a warm phase MDO in the Atlantic...and that could explain the multi year ongoing drought in TX. Such warm N Pacific waters also tend to favor Pacific La Nina and yet more dryness for TX. The SST's across the globe today look very similar to the 1950's and in TX we all know what the 50's brought.

I have to agree here. The summer works a bit different, we want zonal flow because that brings impulses and moist Pacific air. In the summer it's not about hot or cold it's about wet or dry. Wet is a cool summer dry is a hot one, the ridging up there tends to bring NW flow which is not good for moist flow from the gulf.

Caveat is of course ENSO. If El Nino pop ups (history says we have never gone longer than 4 seasons without one using ONI and by the fifth year, 2014 being the 5th, one should appear) then it can change the playing field. However it is not a guaranty.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensembles still show a pretty healthy Cold Blast by Monday and Tuesday. For Monday the Ensemble Means calls for temperatures for most of Texas to be some 16F-20F below Normal and Tuesday more of the same but with some pockets of 20F-25F below normal.


Monday



Tuesday

[BigB0882]

I would love for the models to move away from such a progressive pattern within the next day or two but this is getting awfully close to the close range. If we are going to have the cold might as well make it a long blast. Plus, the longer it hangs around the greater the chance for some precip to come in.

[wxman57]

I still think the models are mishandling the coming cold air mass. They are all driving the big HP into Texas and the source region is very frigid. I've never seen such a big high just sit there and die. I wonder if this is the medium range fluke they tend to lose things and by this weekend they will adjust...just my two cents I could be wrong but it's hard to believe.

The high doesn't move to Texas and sit there, it quickly moves east to Mid Atlantic Coast and the strong north wind becomes a strong southeast wind into Texas by Wednesday afternoon. And with Gulf SSTs still in the 70s we'll warm up quickly.

[Ntxw]

The high doesn't move to Texas and sit there, it quickly moves east to Mid Atlantic Coast and the strong north wind becomes a strong southeast wind into Texas by Wednesday afternoon. And with Gulf SSTs still in the 70s we'll warm up quickly.

I meant when it's further north in Montana. It's going to push a lot more cold air south on it's own weight than just weaken and lose the cold to the east. I don't know it just looks too fishy. If it was a progged 1040 high or so ok I can accept that, it's not going to push that far south and succumb under the flow. I just don't buy it unless this HP is way less than what they are showing.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the SE Ridge. Over the past 48 hours the Euro/Canadian have moved the SE Ridge a lot closer to Florida and the SE States. Also there have been indications that the Gulf of Alaska Ridge builds further into the Interior near and just W of Fairbanks. The short wave should be inland in British Columbia and fully sample by the RAOB network. We are at that range where settle shifts W or E could have ramifications downstream. The 12Z Euro Ensemble anomalies shifted a tad W and show some spread with its 50 individual members. Also a nice little over preforming snow event underway in the Mid Atlantic/DCA area where they were expecting mostly rain/sleet mix.

[wxman57]

Check out the projected 500mb slow. First Monday morning, then Wednesday at 18Z. Note the major change as the pattern is extremely progressive. The upper low has moved quite far to the northeast by Wednesday, and the surface high follows. Thus, we're in deep Gulf flow by Wednesday afternoon and warming up quickly.

[Ntxw]

It's official from FW, most freezes to start a winter season through December. December itself came 2 short of the most for the month though at 19, record being 21.

DALLAS/FORT WORTH - MOST FREEZES IN A SEASON THROUGH DECEMBER 31

1 24 2013*
2 23 2000, 1989
4 22 1976, 1963
6 21 1985, 1983, 1964
9 20 1932, 1903

[Comanche]

Quick sort of off topic question here; This -EPO/-WPO regime that has been a driver of the cold this winter, what does that do to summer temps for the CONUS? Or better question may be; if that giant warm pool near the GOA sticks around into summer, what would that typically do for summer CONUS temps?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images ... 131222.gif

It is thought that warm N Pacific waters tend to favor drought in the southern plains especially coupled with a warm phase MDO in the Atlantic...and that could explain the multi year ongoing drought in TX. Such warm N Pacific waters also tend to favor Pacific La Nina and yet more dryness for TX. The SST's across the globe today look very similar to the 1950's and in TX we all know what the 50's brought.

Thank you very much for answering, helps out tremendously. So we may see yet another dry and hot south for summer 2014, whoever thought of building Houston houses on beam slabs should be shot, or better yet, given a crack overdose....like my slab.

[Jarodm12]

00UTC NAM looks like it shows snow moving into north Texas from the north west at 84 hours?

[Jarodm12]

notice also 84 hours on the nam vs the gfs nam is much further west not as progressive and wetter as well. It's time to vot for the nam cant wait to see the 00utc nam tommarow

[TheProfessor]

notice also 84 hours on the nam vs the gfs nam is much further west not as progressive and wetter as well. It's time to vot for the nam cant wait to see the 00utc nam tommarow

So the nam has snow for North Texas?

[TrekkerCC]

notice also 84 hours on the nam vs the gfs nam is much further west not as progressive and wetter as well. It's time to vot for the nam cant wait to see the 00utc nam tommarow

So the nam has snow for North Texas?

Well, the precipitation (presumably) continues after the NAM 00z run ends...but it looks very light and likely will not directly reach the DFW area. This event appears to primarily be a cold arctic air (dry) event with minimal if any precipitation chances. Through the cold (low temperatures) could rival what we got during the Feb 2011 event on Monday and Tuesday. However, as the meteorologists on the boards have indicated, the surface high will be shifting east quickly, and we will start a warmup by mid-week. We could still get another good snow/ice event in late Jan and Feb (when we usually get lucky with a winter weather event during good years), so keep your hopes up.

I do want to wish everyone a belated Merry Christmas and Happy New Years! I hope everyone enjoyed the holidays and is getting back into the normal routine.

[txprog]

It's official from FW, most freezes to start a winter season through December. December itself came 2 short of the most for the month though at 19, record being 21.

DALLAS/FORT WORTH - MOST FREEZES IN A SEASON THROUGH DECEMBER 31

1 24 2013*
2 23 2000, 1989
4 22 1976, 1963
6 21 1985, 1983, 1964
9 20 1932, 1903

Yes, it's been cold. Those of us who pay attention know that JFM 1990 were warm, just seven more freezes; while JFM in 2001 weren't exactly cold with 13 more freezes, four during the first four days of January. VERY interested to see how the rest of this winter pans out with respect to total number of freezes and to departures from normal, whether below or above.

[Jarodm12]

I dont know looks to me to be accumulating snow. i could be wrong but i have a hunch the gfs is smoking this event hard


http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-p ... I&hour=084

[gpsnowman]

Good morning Weather Team. Cold 27 degree morning here near the airport. Hoping for a snowy miracle in the coming days!!!

[Big O]

After the cold shot early next week, a moderating temperature trend appears to be in the works. Notice I said "moderating," not warm. The next opportunity for wintry temperatures and possible precipitation appears to be January 21, through February 1/2, based on the control run of the European weeklies.