2014 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

More GFS ensemble members are leaning towards a recurve scenario though. And a stronger STR doesn't always mean a straight runner every time. It depends on the position of the ridge and the jet stream. The stronger this phantom storm gets, the more likely it gets picked up by the front.

[dexterlabio]

I heard there's a panic caused already by this phantom storm, and someone on Facebook went on even further by saying a supertyphoon is predicted to make landfall. I wonder what model shows this.

There are no January supertyphoons recorded in history. The closest was Roy which was a Cat4 at peak but weakened to a Cat1 at landfall. If there would be a supertyphoon in January, there needs to be a super strong El Nino in place. I also wonder what favorable tropical conditions are present, because everything looks to be a typical January winter setup across WPAC.

[euro6208]

There are no January supertyphoons recorded in history. The closest was Roy which was a Cat4 at peak but weakened to a Cat1 at landfall. If there would be a supertyphoon in January, there needs to be a super strong El Nino in place. I also wonder what favorable tropical conditions are present, because everything looks to be a typical January winter setup across WPAC.

Looking at the Best Track from JTWC, We actually had a category 5 STY- 140 knots in January of 1958 and Category 4- 135 knots in 1957 if this were to be believed. Of course, it's the 50's anyway but who knows

[euro6208]

EPIC fail as system is no longer forecast to develop into a typhoon in the Philippine Sea.

GFS however develops a system and hits Mindanao and strengthens it while recurving towards luzon. EURO has also latched onto this system...

[hurricanes1234]

Since December last year, this model system has been getting pushed back constantly. If this ever forms, I think it will just be a weak storm that is brief, and not the potential typhoon that was being forecast previously. Maybe it will finally form by the end of January? This is just an uneducated guess.

I AM NOT A METEOROLOGIST, SO PLEASE DO NOT USE THE PRECEDING POST AS AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OR PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. IT IS SOLELY MY PERSONAL OPINION, WHICH HAS A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE OF BEING INACCURATE OR INCORRECT.

[stormkite]

GFS Outlook of what has been called a "possible super typhoon" That is no where near the case...

KMA Analysis

The bulk of this update though we talk about the long range forecast and the likely hood of Tropical Storm "Lingling" developing east of the Philippines. The chance seems possible at this time but in short if it does it will be not much more than a Tropical Storm. A Typhoon is unlikely and a super typhoon would be absurd to forecast given the atmospheric enviroment at this time in the Philippine Sea.

As always we are not official forecast agency so please check with official agencies in regards to this new storm system. The reality is though no agencies are warning on this area at this time due to it not being developed and the extreme long range of the forecast.


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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHts-lzkJZI

Possible Lingling / Agaton January Storm
by robspeta


Today in the westpacwx tropical Update we discuss the likelihood of the first storm of 2014 forming towards the east of the Philippines. In the wake of Typhoon Haiyan any storm formation in this area could lead to severe problems for many residents along coastal areas of Visayas. unfortunately a social media page has attempted to capitalize on this fear and start rumors that a second Super Typhoon was headed towards the Philippines nearly two weeks in advance.

This update we try to quell the rumors that a storm of epic magnitude would hit Visayas yet try to set the picture clear that a storm is coming on the other hand. Likely one that will remain at the intensity of a Tropical Storm or maybe a low end Typhoon. If this was to occur flooding near the coast could occur along with damaging winds possible. This would be very unwelcome for survivors in temporary shelters yet I would not be all to worried about a catastrophic storm surge at this time.

As always with forecast this far out, a lot could change and this could not develop at all or become stronger. We will keep you posted on details through the coming week and a half.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS is forecasting ....
A Cat 2-3 typhoon landfalling over Surigao provinces in Mindanao. It weakens but still as a Cat 1-weak cat 2 over Bohol and hits Naga-Carcar Cities in Metro Cebu then continues its track near Guihulngan and Bacolod. Hits southern Panay very close to Iloilo City. Lingers over the Sulu Sea and recurves NNE towards Mindoro and Bicol as a Tropical Storm. Then exits the PHL while recurving as a large storm east of the country.

[dexterlabio]

The previous GFS runs look like TS Dog's track. Westward track towards Visayas and a recurve towards Luzon is very unusual to me.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The previous GFS runs look like TS Dog's track. Westward track towards Visayas and a recurve towards Luzon is very unusual to me.

But this is stronger though, making "Lingling" more unusual for that track!

[dexterlabio]

^I meant TS DOT, not Dog. From 1979 typhoon season...

[dexterlabio]

It's interesting if the next run will keep a stronger system or will be back to a weaker TS...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's interesting if the next run will keep a stronger system or will be back to a weaker TS...

Next run has it slightly stronger. Track is slightly more WNW already.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This should probably be an invest sometime this week. Organizing near Chuuk and south-southeast of Guam.

In my unprofessional guess, this may be near major typhoon strength (175 km/h 1-min) and possibly no greater than that but at least at typhoon strength.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's rapidly organizing over very favorable conditions and over a Subtropical Ridge. Oh, and by the way, here is my satellite analysis.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Invest 90W has formed.

See thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=116106&p=2364447#p2364447

[mrbagyo]

^I meant TS DOT, not Dog. From 1979 typhoon season...

yeah, I know what you're thinking... the forecast track of GFS looks quite similar to TS Dot but
if this stays weak and pass south of Manila Bay - this will still be far from the doomsday scenario for Coastal Manila Bay Area.

[dexterlabio]

^If this would be a typhoon then that doom scenario at Manila Bay is very likely. But it seems it will just be a TS near Manila as the cold front picks it up and begins extratropical transition. This could usher in a colder surge of air from the northeast monsoon.

[euro6208]

An area of active convection moving westward favors enhanced rainfall for the Philippines and parts of the western Pacific to its east and in fact there is some potential for this region of disturbed weather to organize into a tropical cyclone during the period.

90W has dissipated and likely a new invest number will be given in the next few days.

[euro6208]

2014 Typhoon Season

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm Lingling at 35 knots has contributed 0.245 ACE so far for this basin.

NORMAL YEAR TO DATE:

2

NORMAL YEARLY ACE:

302