Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Anyone have a prognostication of the second half of January temps for the US and Texas? Warm/Norm/Cold???

November was below average, December was well below average, January so far is below average *including recent cold*, and the Euro weeklies/CFSv2 keeps below average heights as well as anomalies over Texas which likely means below average. For the US the central conus has been below average, near normal in the northeast to slightly below and above in the SE and SW coasts. So safe to say this will likely continue for January, February, and March. NOAA is in trouble.

[Ntxw]

12Z Euro doesn't indicate any significant Arctic outbreaks through the 15th. It does have a deepening upper low north of Alaska and a 1045+ mb high well poleward of Alaska on the 15th. Looking forward to a return of 60s and 70s later this week...

The same model run that showed not much cold air for this week 10 days ago? I'll believe it when I see it Warmth is always 10 days away ...

The same Euro that predicted a low of 25 at IAH around the 3rd-4th 10 days ago. It was a tad off in the days, but got the outbreak right.

So can we have it in writing that the Euro has you off the hook the next two weeks sir?

[Rgv20]

28 of the 50 12zECMWF Ensembles are forecasting at least a trace of snow in and around McAllen for Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. I at least want to see a snow flurry! lol

[WeatherGuesser]

So safe to say this will likely continue for January, February, and March. NOAA is in trouble.

[hriverajr]

28 of the 50 12zECMWF Ensembles are forecasting at least a trace of snow in and around McAllen for Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. I at least want to see a snow flurry! lol

I am hoping for some Virga on radar tomorrow. Seems a bit of a disturbance has formed south of the baja. It is mostly Cirrus, but I will be watching it just for grins.It is completely overcast here (Del Rio), cloud cover is supposed to erode.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So safe to say this will likely continue for January, February, and March. NOAA is in trouble.

I believe their winter forecast showed most of the US to be quite warm all winter

[wxman57]

So can we have it in writing that the Euro has you off the hook the next two weeks sir?

Yep, nice mild weather (after Tuesday) through the 15th. No freeze in Houston, anyway, between the 8th and 15th...

[Ntxw]

I believe their winter forecast showed most of the US to be quite warm all winter

It has been abysmal for Texas.



Even seeing what happened they still continue to believe it will warm to record levels to achieve their DJF forecast. At the very least they should've lowered the chances for warmth in the state (since it is a probability forecast) when they re-adjusted in mid December

[Ntxw]

So can we have it in writing that the Euro has you off the hook the next two weeks sir?

Yep, nice mild weather (after Tuesday) through the 15th. No freeze in Houston, anyway, between the 8th and 15th...

How about we make a deal, we'll give you the warmth till then if you allow a foot of snow in Austin for Valentines? Show Porta a little love from the heat miser himself?

[Tireman4]

So can we have it in writing that the Euro has you off the hook the next two weeks sir?

Yep, nice mild weather (after Tuesday) through the 15th. No freeze in Houston, anyway, between the 8th and 15th...

Ha ha ha...No.... We cold weather lovers will prevail young sir.

[KatDaddy]

The N portion of the Brownsville CWA still has slight chance for snow Monday night and Tuesday morning.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well doesn't look like baton rouge nws office is thinking we will have a long term thaw per their latest discussion. Guess the million dollar question is how cold will it again after next weekend.

LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX PULLS BACK INTO
CANADA AND A QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY DEVELOPS OVER THE
CONUS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOW AS THE UPPER FLOW
BUCKLES AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SEPARATE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SO FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AND IS SLOWER. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY
AND INDICATE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. 11

[orangeblood]

Potential Stratospheric Warming Event continues to propagate Poleward.......

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[wxman57]

So can we have it in writing that the Euro has you off the hook the next two weeks sir?

Yep, nice mild weather (after Tuesday) through the 15th. No freeze in Houston, anyway, between the 8th and 15th...

How about we make a deal, we'll give you the warmth till then if you allow a foot of snow in Austin for Valentines? Show Porta a little love from the heat miser himself?

Good deal. I have a bucket that's about 1 foot deep. I'll dump it on your lawn.

[Ntxw]

Potential Stratospheric Warming Event continues to propagate Poleward.......

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

This can also be seen higher up at 10mb as well likely meaning a top down event. Usually has a 2-3 week lag for AO response to very negatives. I have noticed guidance has been trending much more negative lately for that index, it would be a hard flip from what we saw in early winter.

[jerryh421]

Potential Stratospheric Warming Event continues to propagate Poleward.......

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

This can also be seen higher up at 10mb as well likely meaning a top down event. Usually has a 2-3 week lag for AO response to very negatives. I have noticed guidance has been trending much more negative lately for that index, it would be a hard flip from what we saw in early winter.

http://i42.tinypic.com/am6v5.gif

So does this mean a big warm up is coming?

[Ntxw]

So does this mean a big warm up is coming?

It does not. If it is a full propagating SSW more cold will be dislodged as history has shown somewhere due to the AO tanking in response. It's a matter of where, if the Pacific continues to work (-EPO) with us as it has been there is a good chance more cold will arrive in North America that likes to head south for the rest of winter.

Still a soaking rain potential for next weekend as HPC and models have been bullish with qpf. Pwats will probably be in the upper tier for the time of year so it's possible with the slow moving vigorous shortwave.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wind is picking up alot more here in SW Houston. 850 front? Starting to clear up as well. still 41.4F though

[DougNTexas]

15 Degrees with a Due Point of 5 @ 6:22am in Price, Texas.

[Kelarie]

Forecast low for Texarkana tonight is 12. The high tomorrow is expected to be 25, and the low tomorrow night is expected to be 13. That is pretty cold if you ask me, considering there is no snow cover.

It is a balmy 14 in lovely Hooks this morning (outside of Texarkana).