Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS

...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...
FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TWO PRECEDING DAYS OF TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING WILL RESULT IN COLD GROUND. THUS...ANY AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL CAUSE ICY ROADS AND BRIDGES.

[gboudx]

My Acurite reported 12 degrees for about 10 mins but up to 13 now.

[Ntxw]

Toasty 15F at DFW airport it beat the forecast of 17. 13 at the NTX PWC, however I am known to cold bias so may have calibrated my thermometer at some point lower . Tomorrow night is supposed to be a little warmer but because the winds will die radiational cooling will be better, however depending on how quickly south winds return. 30th freeze cometh.

[Portastorm]

It's 23 at the moment here at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County. Close to the time when we usually bottom out, temp-wise.

Meanwhile, a lot of longer range conflicting signals with the teleconnections. I'd prefer to see these EPO/WPO indices negative and not positive. But perhaps a +PNA/-AO couplet might still "deliver the goods" for us.



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[CYCLONE MIKE]

What happened to the really cold air the deep south was supposed to receive? Baton rouge nws upped tonights lows from mid teens to mid 20's then upper 20's tomorrow night. And just 2 1\2 hrs away mobile just updated theirs, they were forecast at 11 and 16 now they are 16 and 20. Also why such a big discrepancy in such a short distance.

[Ntxw]

What happened to the really cold air the deep south was supposed to receive? Baton rouge nws upped tonights lows from mid teens to mid 20's then upper 20's tomorrow night. And just 2 1\2 hrs away mobile just updated theirs, they were forecast at 11 and 16 now they are 16 and 20. Also why such a big discrepancy in such a short distance.

Perhaps they are banking the winds and or clouds will be more abundant not allowing optimum radiational cooling. Text output still has mid teens tomorrow morning in Baton Rouge.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I dont know Ntxw,

TODAY

Breezy

High: 39 °F

TONIGHT

Mostly Clear

Low: 24 °F

TUESDAY

Sunny

High: 40 °F

TUESDAY
NIGHT

Mostly Clear

Low: 27 °F

Doesn't look like clouds or wind will be the problem. Unless north at 5-10 is?

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Damaging advective freeze in progress over the north part of the area currently.

Extremely cold tonight with lows from 13-25 across the region

Maximum freeze precautions must be taken for tonight.

Arctic high continues to build southward from the central plains with strong winds having continued all night in the 15-25mph range. 600am wind chills range from an impressive 9 at College Station to 15 at BUSH IAH and 19 at Palacios. 600am temperatures range from 23 at College Station and Huntsville to 27-29 N of US 59 to just above freezing right at the coast.

1040mb arctic high will build deeper into TX today resulting in steadily decreasing winds and gradually clearing skies. Upper level system currently near Baja is attempting to spreading high level moisture across the area and periods of high clouds are possible today into this evening.

Tonight under mainly clear skies, light winds, and extremely low dewpoints a very hard freeze is expected for all locations. Low temperature records from 1912 (College Station) and 1970 (Houston) may be threatened. Expect highs today to only reach the mid to upper 30’s with temperatures quickly falling below freezing at sunset and staying below freezing until late Tuesday morning.

Forecasted lows (Tuesday Morning):
N of HWY 105: 13-17
Conroe Area: 14-16
N of I-10: 17-21
N of US 59: 18-22
Inside Beltway 8: 24-27
N of a line from Victoria to Bay City to Pasadena: 22-28
Coastal beaches (including Galveston Is): 29-32

Temperatures will be at or below freezing for 14-18 hours and at or below 25 for up to 12 hours.

Preparations:

Maximum freeze precautions must be taken for forecasted temperatures of this magnitude including heavily protecting of tropical vegetation and citrus, protection of all exposed outside pipes including sprinkler systems, and sheltering for pets/livestock.

Temperatures below 20 degrees can lead to freezing and bursting of exterior wall/attic pipes in houses…open exterior cabinet doors and keep interior air temperature at or above 70 degrees. If pipes freeze, shut off the water supply to the house from the main shut off and wait for pipes to thaw to determine if they have broken…do not attempt to thaw pipes…this can at times cause more damage.

End of the Week:

Large arctic high will move eastward with onshore winds returning to the area Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will come roaring back into the region Wednesday with rain chances likely from late Wednesday into next weekend as the flow aloft becomes SW and several upper level disturbances move across the region. Widespread rainfall looks likely, but hard to time disturbances make it difficult to pin point the greatest potential period. Could see 1-2 inches of rainfall by the weekend across the region.

[vbhoutex]

ERCOT has just announced we need to be conserving electricity so we won't have any power outages. This is the first time I remember this happening during cold weather and I've been in Houston since 1969. Currently holding at 25f here in
West Houston.

[gboudx]

I think that happened up here in 2011, the week of the Super Bowl at JerryWorld.

[srainhoutx]

ERCOT has just announced we need to be conserving electricity so we won't have any power outages. This is the first time I remember this happening during cold weather and I've been in Houston since 1969. Currently holding at 25f here in
West Houston.

David, ERCOT just reduced the Caution from Level 2 to Level 1 at 7:53 AM. Conservation is still needed and I wouldn't be surprise to see the load increased overnight as temperatures fall to even colder levels.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

28.0F here in Sugar Land, went outside to get a taste of it. Not bad, really dry, like being at a ski resort!

[gboudx]

Here's something you don't see much:

Dewpoint: 0°F (-18°C)

[Ntxw]

Does a number on your hair! Wxman57 may be a little less beautiful the next 24 hours due to hair malfunctions.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Does a number on your hair! Wxman57 may be a little less beautiful the next 24 hours due to hair malfunctions.

My thinning hair looks good as usual this morning. Lowest I saw was 29.6 at the house. Temps not as cold as MOS was indicating but not far from what the GFS & Euro 2m temps from the past few days. Big question for tonight is when does the low-level warm advection start? Historically, once the high pressure axis slips east of Houston the temps stop dropping (or they start rising).


Will bee stuck in jury duty all day today. Waiting for it to start at 9am.

[TexasStorm]

So safe to say this will likely continue for January, February, and March. NOAA is in trouble.

I believe their winter forecast showed most of the US to be quite warm all winter

Only 15 days into Winter. Still time for it to be a warm winter.

[CaptinCrunch]

It's currently 14 degrees here in FTW with a WC of 4. Forecast high is now 31 with a over night low of 17.

[Portastorm]

We bottomed out at 20 degrees at the PWC. That cold air advection sure is strong!

As for the ERCOT stuff, we did have a similar emergency in February 2011, vbhoutex. In fact we had rolling blackouts the day it hit 17 degrees at the PWC and we didn't have power for a while at PWC HQ.

[Portastorm]

ERCOT has just announced we need to be conserving electricity so we won't have any power outages. This is the first time I remember this happening during cold weather and I've been in Houston since 1969. Currently holding at 25f here in
West Houston.

David, ERCOT just reduced the Caution from Level 2 to Level 1 at 7:53 AM. Conservation is still needed and I wouldn't be surprise to see the load increased overnight as temperatures fall to even colder levels.

I'm almost certain this situation is going to be worse tonight/tomorrow morning considering it'll be even colder throughout much of the state, including a greater impact on larger metro areas.

[ronyan]

6z GFS shows the high moving to the east of Houston around 5am tomorrow morning give or take an hour. That should be plenty of time for radiational cooling to kick in and allow temps to drop quickly after dark. I think wxman will see about 23 in the morning.

Expecting close to the same at my station in Lake Jackson. It was 29.5F this morning here.