SIO: INVEST 91S
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Grifforzer
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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S
ITCZ analysis from Meteo France Reunion
In the Mozambique Channel, the monsoon flow extends southward down to 20.0S and supplies locally a strong convective activity around a 13.5S 40.5E and 17.5S 46.0E axis. A weak low level clockwise circulation (05/15 knots according to the ASCAT data of this morning, 20 knots in the vicinity of the western coast of Madagascar) is visible on satellite imagery. At 0930Z, it is located approximately near 20.0S 43.0E with a current moving eastward. Low wind shear and good divergence equatorward aloft foster the convective developments, but there is no low level convergence. The low is expected to fill up within the next 24 hours. The convection may generate severe unstable and thundery weather on the western coast of Madagascar located north of 20.0S, until the beginning of the next week.
From Tuesday, numerical weather prediction models ECMWF and UKMO begin to deepen a low over the Channel near 20.0S. In relationship with the weakening of the system (Bejisa) far away south of Madagascar and the arrival of high pressures from the south-west, the trade-wind flow should accelerate and penetrate over the south of the Channel. The low level convergence will improve and upper level divergence will remain favorable with a good divergence poleward. From Wednesday to Thursday, this low is expected to move southward and may progressively undergo the influence of a northerly vertical wind-shear unfavorable for significant development.
The likelihood that another tropical depression develops over our basin is very low until Monday (in the Mozambique Channel). It becomes low Tuesday and moderate from Wednesday.
In the Mozambique Channel, the monsoon flow extends southward down to 20.0S and supplies locally a strong convective activity around a 13.5S 40.5E and 17.5S 46.0E axis. A weak low level clockwise circulation (05/15 knots according to the ASCAT data of this morning, 20 knots in the vicinity of the western coast of Madagascar) is visible on satellite imagery. At 0930Z, it is located approximately near 20.0S 43.0E with a current moving eastward. Low wind shear and good divergence equatorward aloft foster the convective developments, but there is no low level convergence. The low is expected to fill up within the next 24 hours. The convection may generate severe unstable and thundery weather on the western coast of Madagascar located north of 20.0S, until the beginning of the next week.
From Tuesday, numerical weather prediction models ECMWF and UKMO begin to deepen a low over the Channel near 20.0S. In relationship with the weakening of the system (Bejisa) far away south of Madagascar and the arrival of high pressures from the south-west, the trade-wind flow should accelerate and penetrate over the south of the Channel. The low level convergence will improve and upper level divergence will remain favorable with a good divergence poleward. From Wednesday to Thursday, this low is expected to move southward and may progressively undergo the influence of a northerly vertical wind-shear unfavorable for significant development.
The likelihood that another tropical depression develops over our basin is very low until Monday (in the Mozambique Channel). It becomes low Tuesday and moderate from Wednesday.
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DanieleItalyRm
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