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northjaxpro
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#8201 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:25 am

Thanks NDG. Yeah I just looked at the latest GFS runs and indeed GFS has continued to trend colder for North Florida and warmer for South Florida for the next two mornings.

MOS guidance now calling for 16 degrees for tomorrow morning. If that verifies at Jax International Airport, which is close to my locale, it would there make it the coldest reading since January 1985. That was when the all-time recordlow was set there of 7 degrees.

The Arctic Front moved through my locale just before 9 a.m. A narrow band of showers moved through with the front. Currently, the temp as dropped to 49.6, after beinng at 66.4 just before the front passed.ab out an 18 degree drop in just over 2 hours!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#8202 Postby NDG » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:34 am

Arctic front is just coming through my area, wind has switched from the NW, temp of 75 degrees, lets see how quickly it drops.
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#8203 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:41 am

It will drop quickly NDG. By the time it gets to sunset, the temp at my locale will have dropped into the upper 30s . Plus the wind chill readings that will be a biting factor will really make it feel frigid indeed.
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#8204 Postby NDG » Mon Jan 06, 2014 1:09 pm

I guess the biggest drop will be towards sunset, in an hour and a half temps only dropped 7 degrees, now down to 68 degs.
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#8205 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 06, 2014 3:39 pm

Yeah, the drop in temperatures in your region was not quite as fast as at my locale. However, as you stated, the drop will occur in the hours prior and after sunset. But with an advective freeze like tonight, the temperatures will drop in true arctic air masses, like this one, at a steady rate.

Right now, it is 45.2 degrees at this hour at my locale. I had a dramatic 16 degree drop in temps with the passage of the arctic front in just over 2 hours this morning. They have been gradually dropping since the noon. Should be about near 40 degrees by sunset.

Looks on track to fall to around 18- 22 degree range at my locale when I wake up early in the morning.

Be back a little later.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Jan 06, 2014 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8206 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jan 06, 2014 4:02 pm

Alot of talk about cloud cover and winds in the latest NWS Tampa discussion at least for Tues. night, which will prevent the ideal radiational cooling event needed to get a deep freeze across west-central Florida. NWS Tampa snippet:

THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND AND SUBDUE ANY
KIND OF RADIATIONAL ASPECT OF THE COOLING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST. AS A
RESULT...WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES SEEMS UNLIKELY OVER
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTH...SO THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH OF
PASCO COUNTY WILL BE CANCELLED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE NATURE COAST

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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#8207 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jan 06, 2014 4:16 pm

Also don't think I have ever seen a "winter" and "summer" discussion in the same NWS Miami discussion all in one week! This cold event will literally last less than 36 hours here then back to almost a summertime pattern. Here are a couple of snippets from NWS Miami:

Discussions starts with this:

BUSY FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS CURRENTLY JUST
ABOUT TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A VERY COLD
AIR MASS BEHIND IT

Then discusses the arctic airmass further:

BEHIND THE FRONT, THE COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING FOR MOST OF THE SEASON. GLADES AND PARTS OF HENDRY COUNTY
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FLIRT WITH DROPPING TO
THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER, THOUGHTS ARE THAT EVEN WHILE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE ADVECTED IN, IT MAY STILL NEED THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
COMPONENT TO GET MUCH COLDER

Then later on in the extended discussion sounds like a summertime pattern 8-) :

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, MADE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN BRINGS A CHANCE MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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Re:

#8208 Postby NDG » Mon Jan 06, 2014 5:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:Alot of talk about cloud cover and winds in the latest NWS Tampa discussion at least for Tues. night, which will prevent the ideal radiational cooling event needed to get a deep freeze across west-central Florida. NWS Tampa snippet:

THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND AND SUBDUE ANY
KIND OF RADIATIONAL ASPECT OF THE COOLING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST. AS A
RESULT...WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES SEEMS UNLIKELY OVER
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTH...SO THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH OF
PASCO COUNTY WILL BE CANCELLED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE NATURE COAST

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


I am glad they mentioned the cloud cover in the mid to upper levels from keeping this event that much if any of a record breaker for Central and southern FL.
The cloud cover is due to the moist SW winds in the mid to upper levels thanks to the fact that the trough from the Polar Vortex is starting and will continue to lift as it pushes towards to the east coast, the subtropical Atlantic ridge kept the trough from deepening over or closer to FL otherwise this would had been a much colder event for Central and southern FL.
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#8209 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 6:28 pm

The light at the end of the tunnel is 80s come Friday through the weekend! Even mid 80s on Saturday
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Re: Florida Weather

#8210 Postby SouthFloridian92 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:54 pm

Glad it's fixin to get cold, even if it's just for a day.

StormingB81 wrote:The light at the end of the tunnel is 80s come Friday through the weekend! Even mid 80s on Saturday


Nooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm still in denial about this.
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#8211 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jan 06, 2014 8:16 pm

This winter season has been very uneventful for the Florida peninsula just like the 2013 hurricane season. Not trying to say I want any harm or damage done for those who might misunderstand.
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#8212 Postby NDG » Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:01 pm

Cloud cover is really increasing across the Peninsula and so far the Temps that are across the Peninsula are a couple of degrees warmer than what was supposed to be forecasted by the MOS guidance.
I will continue to watch through the night to see if the clouds stick around and the temperatures indeed stay a few degrees warmer, if that's the case many areas right along and south of I-4 would not see freezing temps in the morning as forecasted, IMO.
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Re: Florida Weather

#8213 Postby FireRat » Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:05 am

Check this out y'all:

Image
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Re: Florida Weather

#8214 Postby NDG » Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:22 am

:uarrow: That must be an error, south of I-4 the atmosphere is not cold enough neither at the surface for frozen precip to occur.
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#8215 Postby FLCrackerGirl » Tue Jan 07, 2014 2:17 am

Current temperatures for those surrounding areas - Cape Coral, Naples, Fort Myers & Bonita Springs - is 49-50º F.
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#8216 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:53 am

Well, currently it is 22.3 degrees at my locale on this frigid Tuesday morning. The GFS and NAM runs from yesterday showed high clouds streaming across the peninsula amd it appears that verified. This has kept temps from really bottoming out, but temps dropped almost a full 3 degrees this past hour.

It looks like temps will fall the next couple of hours and they may still drop in that 18- 20 range at my local, which is right about as forecasted from yesterday.

It is extremely cold folks out there I can assure you. It was extremely difficult going out to check my weather station this morning lol.. Yeah I am a bit crazy I guess but still on high euphoria after wat0hing my ,oles come back and win the gamke and win another national championship!!! Go Noles!!!!!
Frigid aiir entreched across the area as tHe Arctic High axis moves across the SE US all throughout today. Strong cold air advection will be maximized today with high temps here at my locale only reaching the upper.30s!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Jan 07, 2014 7:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#8217 Postby NDG » Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:59 am

As of 6 AM none of the official sites along I-4 on southward are reporting freezing temps, thanks to the clouds that hung in there most of the night, the Citrus industry like in northern Volusia County where temps were forecasted to fall into the mid to upper 20s must be feeling really happy this morning.
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#8218 Postby NDG » Tue Jan 07, 2014 7:17 am

7 AM With Orlando reporting 35 degrees, I guess it is going to take a stronger Arctic blast or a deeper trough that would dip closer to bring us our first freeze.
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#8219 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jan 07, 2014 3:09 pm

Surprised this thread is not busier with the artic air invading our state!
Anyways, here in Palm Beach Gardens, FL the temp. is a raw 57°F with Overcast skies and gusty North winds @ 21mph. Tonight we will only drop to about 55°F due to the wind switching to the NE off the water. Wish this cool/cold air would stick around for a few more days. :roll:
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#8220 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jan 07, 2014 3:09 pm

Check out some of these low dew points across the state: :eek:

Image
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