Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

00Z Euro & GFS meteograms for Houston & Dallas-Ft. Worth says no freezing temps in either area through the 17th. Coldest day is 34F on the 14th in Dallas. Though I don't think winter is over (for Texas) by any means, I think there's a good chance that this week's cold outbreak will turn out to be the coldest of the season for Texas.

[Comanche]

00Z Euro & GFS meteograms for Houston & Dallas-Ft. Worth says no freezing temps in either area through the 17th. Coldest day is 34F on the 14th in Dallas. Though I don't think winter is over (for Texas) by any means, I think there's a good chance that this week's cold outbreak will turn out to be the coldest of the season for Texas.

Since you seem to have clout with the wx gods, how about sunny skies with lows in the 40's and highs in the 70's for Three Rivers, TX on the weekend of the 25th? I'll cheer for all the heat you want at any other time!

[Texas Snowman]

^I agree up to the 15th. EPO+ is zonal flow, even with +PNA the air is of Pacific Ocean origin and only the northeast and lakes is far enough for cold shots that are meaningful because of -AO/-NAO. But I do think the models will eventually adjust back to a -EPO regime in large part due to formation of a strong Aleutian low and of course the pesky hot waters. It's a reload pattern but at least a moist one with shortwaves galore.

This.

[Tejas89]

Also think we're probably done with anything too extreme as far as cold. Historically, February has offered up the best chances for a snow dump. wait and see...

I would rather not any more freezing rain this winter. Don't understand how anyone could get excited about that.

[texas1836]

Also think we're probably done with anything too extreme as far as cold. Historically, February has offered up the best chances for a snow dump. wait and see...

I would rather not any more freezing rain this winter. Don't understand how anyone could get excited about that.

I'm with you on that! I prefer the wet late Winter, early Spring snow showers. It looks better and melts quick with a slow soaking in the garden.

[CaptinCrunch]

Winter is not over for Texas, we are just going through the normal warm phase after a pretty good cold period. We do it every year and by the last week of January into the first half of February we will once again enjoy our winter weather.

[gpsnowman]

Winter is not over for Texas, we are just going through the normal warm phase after a pretty good cold period. We do it every year and by the last week of January into the first half of February we will once again enjoy our winter weather.

Very true. Winter is hardly over. Warm stretches in January are common. Feb is our snow month. It will get colder. The extreme temps are fun but you only need a couple days in the upper 20's lower 30's with some moisture and BAM, snow. I for one will be enjoying any rain we get, we need it badly. Winter will return.

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of meteograms from the 12Z GFS (for Houston). No freeze through the 24th. Some rain near the 23rd, perhaps? I like those upper 60s for the weekend. That, along with some sunshine, will make for OK biking weather (not great, just OK). I'd prefer 88 degrees over 68, but beggars can't be choosers...

I'd also point out that the models were quite right a week ago when they were forecasting the very rapid warm-up starting today. Temps are already reaching the 60s on the Texas coast.

[dhweather]

The 12Z GFS for 3,900 hours has a cat 5 in the gulf. (sarcasm intended).

Things look rather bland for the next week. Maybe some liquid gold this week, and that's about it.

[dhweather]

Joe B tweets

ECMWF threatening to phase northern and southern branch after day 10. Would lead to huge outbreak ,major storm

[Portastorm]

I do not and cannot doubt the data you show and certainly won't doubt your knowledge. So, I'll check my skepticism at the door in deference to your comments, wxman57. But I don't mind saying that I'm going to be one very surprised person next week if the weather ends up behaving that way. That would be an extraordinary turnaround.

OK ... here it is ... I was wrong (about this week) ... and you, wxman57, were right.

I'm still surprised though at how quickly the atmosphere turned around. Another one of those "gee whiz" moments for me.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: unfortunately, according to both the GFS and Euro ensembles, the ridge axis is forecasted to align even further east across the western US (instead of along west coast) forcing any reloading of Arctic Air even further east. Pattern does not look favorable for wintry weather over the next two weeks and probably beyond, as it appears mild Pacific air will begin to flood North America

orangeblood ... you appear to not have a lot of company but you know what? I'm with you. I see few, if any, signs in the ensembles/deterministic model runs for the GFS and Euro and in the teleconnections that lead me to believe another cold shot is coming mid month. I know folks think I've gone to the dark side and am in cahoots with Lord Heat Miser himself, but I'm really not. I'll be the first guy to get excited about a potential winter outbreak if I see some kind of factual support for it. If we all wake up tomorrow morning and the overnight guidance starts showing signs of what we saw from yesterday's 12z Euro operational run ... then I'd take more interest. And yes, I see what today's 12z Euro is showing at 216 and 240 hours ... but the 0z didn't really show that. No consistency and certainly not support from the GFS. So right now, I don't see much of anything. And I definitely don't see any signs of the general progressive flow stopping. We need blocking on both coasts and there's none of that to be had right now. That's the stuff that's killing us ... well, when I write "us" I mean those of us who want a winter weather event.

Now I am NOT saying winter is over. Climatologically we're heading into the best period for accumulating winter snows/sleets for Texas and the generally runs until mid February. Next 4-5 weeks. But what I am saying is right now, I don't see anything promising on the horizon.

[Kludge]

I do not and cannot doubt the data you show and certainly won't doubt your knowledge. So, I'll check my skepticism at the door in deference to your comments, wxman57. But I don't mind saying that I'm going to be one very surprised person next week if the weather ends up behaving that way. That would be an extraordinary turnaround.

OK ... here it is ... I was wrong (about this week) ... and you, wxman57, were right.

I'm still surprised though at how quickly the atmosphere turned around. Another one of those "gee whiz" moments for me.

Wow... I didn't know there was such a thing as a zero-point font

Don't feel bad, Porta. He has tons of data available to him that isn't accessible by the public. You and I have to go by gut feel in most cases. I agreed with your assessment, but I wasn't so bold as to post it. This quick turnaround... from such a massive cold air mass, was very unusual.

[stormlover2013]

doesn't the euro show a cold outbreak after day 10 though?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That looks like a big snow event behind as well. I think....

[orangeblood]

The 12z Euro looks almost identical to its runs 10 days ago, same rinse and repeat pattern except for the coldest air even further east. The Strat Warming event might be the only thing that can break up this pattern. Ugly, especially considering I'm going to Lake Tahoe in a few weeks and their snowpack is about 15% of normal - thank goodness for snowmaking machines

[Texas Snowman]

May be a progressive flow but its 37 in Denison with heavy drizzle and a stiff breeze. Feels like January to me!

[wxman57]

Looks like you had a problem with your earlier post, Portastorm. For some reason the font was too small to read. Don't worry, I fixed it.

15-day Euro ensembles are in. Nothing significant for Texas next 2 weeks. Maybe a bit of rain for north Texas early Saturday and again early next week. A little cold air around day 10 but the upper low is NE of Hudson Bay and moving rapidly eastward. No deep plunge of Arctic air.

[natlib]

Me thinks winter might be over......

[TexasStorm]

Wouldn't call a Winter cancel just yet. As some have eluded to around here February historically is the month for snow around North Texas. Not sure we can get any of that down Porta's way or Wxman way but the lady has not sung yet.