ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

What's the latest PDO?

The November update was at -11. The December update should be released after by January 20.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[cycloneye]

Here is the early January update by IRI that shows the growing chance of El Nino by the Summer.



http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... cpc_update

[hurricanetrack]

Again, I say good. A slight El Nino is in my opinion what the atmosphere needs to help add more moisture to the lower and mid levels. I could be way off on this thinking but as I've stated before, it seems to me that the fairly long stretch of no El Nino combined with the cold PDO has helped to de-humidify the tropics to some extent and thus cause the instability and dryness issues. Perhaps not, maybe no real way to accurately know for sure. Still, a weak El Nino is not going to kill off the Atlantic hurricane season and there are no signs of a 1997/98 or even a 2009 strength ENSO event coming on - at least not yet.

[blp]

My two cents are that although I agree that having an El Nino this year could help restore some balance to the atmosphere, I am not sure that would translate to a more productive season numbers wise compared to 2013 due to the normally adverse effect of higher wind shear in the MDR which has not been a big problem the last few years. So we may essentially be trading one negative variable for another. Now if we get a Modiki which looks possible this year looking at the current SST anomaly maps then I would get a little more enthusiastic about the season's potential.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/13/14 update

What about Nino 3.4 reaching the La Nina threshold of -0.5C in this week's update?



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[wxman57]

Euro is forecasting near El Nino conditions this summer but the forecast is definitely not verifying for the first month. Note the blue dots representing the trend since the last forecast was made are all cooler than any ensemble member. The new January forecast (which I can't post here) indicates continued cooling through mid February then a steady rise to +0.5C by May and +0.7C by July.

[hurricanes1234]

I'm not believing anything about ENSO being El Niño or La Niña right until May 15 or later. Too much up and down madness.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is forecasting near El Nino conditions this summer but the forecast is definitely not verifying for the first month. Note the blue dots representing the trend since the last forecast was made are all cooler than any ensemble member. The new January forecast (which I can't post here) indicates continued cooling through mid February then a steady rise to +0.5C by May and +0.7C by July.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

The Euro has not been able to correctly forecast El-Nino, right? Didn't it, and the CFS V2 model for the past two years show El-Nino/Warm-Neutral bias that turned out to be non-existent?

[wxman57]

Euro is forecasting near El Nino conditions this summer but the forecast is definitely not verifying for the first month. Note the blue dots representing the trend since the last forecast was made are all cooler than any ensemble member. The new January forecast (which I can't post here) indicates continued cooling through mid February then a steady rise to +0.5C by May and +0.7C by July.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

The Euro has not been able to correctly forecast El-Nino, right? Didn't it, and the CFS V2 model for the past two years show El-Nino/Warm-Neutral bias that turned out to be non-existent?

I don't think any agency is proving it can forecast ENSO out very far. But it has been quite a long time since the last El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Euro is forecasting near El Nino conditions this summer but the forecast is definitely not verifying for the first month. Note the blue dots representing the trend since the last forecast was made are all cooler than any ensemble member. The new January forecast (which I can't post here) indicates continued cooling through mid February then a steady rise to +0.5C by May and +0.7C by July.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

The Euro has not been able to correctly forecast El-Nino, right? Didn't it, and the CFS V2 model for the past two years show El-Nino/Warm-Neutral bias that turned out to be non-existent?

I don't think any agency is proving it can forecast ENSO out very far. But it has been quite a long time since the last El Nino.

Four years without El Nino means is due soon but the question is when will it reach +0.5C and above.

[Ntxw]

No El Nino yet from the sub-surface. If one were to occur we would start to see strong warm anomalies (3+) down-well from the WPAC and slowly migrate up to the east.

[cycloneye]

Drip-drip-drip!

[cycloneye]

No El Nino yet from the sub-surface. If one were to occur we would start to see strong warm anomalies (3+) down-well from the WPAC and slowly migrate up to the east.

Indeed.

[ninel conde]

SOI +21.1 today.

[Hurricaneman]

Everybody was talking about a possible El Nino coming, but it looks like we're heading into a La Nina instead which no model or forecaster predicted that I know of


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

PDO December update

It has cooled down from -11 that was in November to -41 in December.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actually, a decrease was predicted - probably reaching -0.5+ sometime in February and peaking its lowest around March then increase rapidly on May.

As what wxman57 has posted, the January forecast indicates continued cooling through mid February then a steady rise to +0.5C by May and +0.7C by July.

No way are we going to La Niña. This event is normal every first few months of the year.

[ninel conde]

SOI +44.7

[Ntxw]

Indeed, I would not swing too hard either way looking at individual values this time of year. Things often flip in the change of seasons, but I do agree La Nina is very unlikely. It's very difficult to get refreshed new Nina without having El Nino (not talking about the residual Ninas that follow strong Ninas). So most likely the next true Nina won't come till at least we have had an El Nino. But it's still possible we finish the year with another neutral that too would be unprecedented in being one of the longest stretches of neutral. So in short, anything that is not a Nino will likely be the "firsts" of it's kind.

[ninel conde]

SOI +50.2