WPAC: LINGLING - Tropical Depression 01W

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS predicts TY strength winds south of Iloilo and west of Negros Island.

[dexterlabio]

I don't like the latest GFS run. Really bad for those in the Visayas especially in Leyte area if this system stays longer... it's like adding salt to a really bad injury...

[euro6208]

20140111 0232 5.7 -128.3 T1.0/1.0 91W 91W

TXPQ27 KNES 110315
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 11/0232Z

C. 5.7N

D. 128.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER


Finally on board just shy of getting into depression status...For those who don't know, 1.5/2.0 is depression and 2.5 is Tropical Storm (SSHS).

[euro6208]

Very disorganized. This will have a better chance to develop once it heads west of the islands but for now, it looks like the region will get plenty of rain and winds.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Winds and rains here are unusually strong.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't like the latest GFS run. Really bad for those in the Visayas especially in Leyte area if this system stays longer... it's like adding salt to a really bad injury...

I hate it because it crosses almost the entire Cebu island.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY-SHEARED FAST MOVING AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
THE STRONG EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING A GOOD
WESTWARD OUTFLOW THAT, IN ADDITION TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TRADE
WIND SURGES, IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. DYNAMIC
MODELS DEPICT A WEAK VORTEX THAT QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS MINDANAO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. IN VIEW
OF THE WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CYCLONES IMMINENT
LANDFALL INTO MINDANAO, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

838
WWPQ80 PGUM 110502
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
302 PM CHST SAT JAN 11 2014

PMZ161-171-121400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
302 PM CHST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SHOWERY WEATHER DIMINISHING OVER YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 5N131E...WHICH IS ABOUT 280
MILES SOUTHWEST OF KOROR AND 575 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP. THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AWAY
FROM KOROR AND YAP.

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL COVER A LARGE
AREA BETWEEN 6N AND 10N FROM 130E TO 136E. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU AND SOUTHERN YAP STATE AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS AREA. DRIER TRADE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST HAVE ALLOWED
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ACROSS MOST OF YAP STATE...OVERSPREADING YAP AND
THE NEIGHBORING ISLANDS...AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

OTHER ATOLLS AND ISLANDS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS DISTURBANCE
INCLUDE NGULU...KAYANGEL AND TOBI. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS HAS
DIMINISHED ON WOLEAI...FAIS...ULITHI...SONSOROL AND FARAULEP.

BE AWARE THAT STREAMS ON HIGH ISLANDS OF PALAU COULD BECOME FLOODED
AND DANGEROUS...AND THE RISK OF MUD SLIDES COULD ALSO INCREASE.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN YAP STATE AND ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ARE
ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES...LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICES AND RADIO STATIONS.

$$

MCELROY/STANKO

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's organized to me. Evident circulation center is near Mati, Davao Oriental [province hit by STY Bopha] and has excellent outflow.

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 140111 1200 4.3N 125.0E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 140112 0000 8.2N 126.0E WPAC 15 1010

Center overland...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Weather here is really bad, for the past 2 days. It is chilly [for us] and accompanied by continuous moderate-heavy rains and strong winds.

[dexterlabio]

JMA not anymore expecting this to be a TS...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N
127.2E, HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
UNRAVELED. WEAK, ALBEIT PERSISTENT CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON SURGE.
IN VIEW OF THESE, THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[euro6208]

Remnant of 91W spreading rains and winds across the archipelago.



TXPQ27 KNES 111526
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 11/1501Z

C. 6.7N

D. 126.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. OVERLAND

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CENTER FIX OVER LAND. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN
UNLESS SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER AND REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

Last center fix.

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 140113 0000 6.7N 123.8E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 140113 1800 6.6N 123.6E WPAC 15 1010

Latest fix right in the Moro Gulf east of Zamboanga City.



Wide view showing a large area receiving copious amount of rainfall. Very persistant system.

[euro6208]

06Z has 91W meandering over the philippines for the next 7 days! and actually strengthening a bit over the Sulu Sea before hitting palawan.

If this were to verify, the P.I (Southern, Central) will surely get alot of rain from this and flooding is certainly possible in some areas.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[euro6208]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2608

91W Kills 20 in Philippines

In the Philippines, heavy rains from tropical disturbance 91W have triggered flash floods and mudslides that are being blamed for twenty deaths on the southern island of Mindanao on Saturday, with thirteen other people missing. Twenty-four hour rainfall amounts in excess of 300 mm (11.81") fell in northeast Mindanao, according to Project NOAH. The disturbance will move slowly north over the islands through Tuesday, and bring torrential rains in excess of 5" to the islands of Leyte and Samar, ravaged by Super Typhoon Haiyan in November.

[Meow]

It seems that 91W and JMA’s new TD are different systems right now.