Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

That's why I love Florida, besides having real sandy beaches (vs. Galveston). Will be heading over there for the National Hurricane Conference in April (Orlando).

We're taking up a collection for you to move there!

Great! South Florida, please. Maybe Key West? Visited there about 20 years ago and it was really nice in January.

I see Ryan Maue just tweeted about a second Polar vortex in the 12Z Euro. I'm looking at his website but don't see anything even close to the U.S. through 10 days. There's a vortex north of Hudson Bay. There is some fairly cold air moving across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and then the Northeast by next Friday/Saturday. Good. That's where it belongs. Fortunately, it zips east very quickly and we're left with zonal flow across the U.S.

Just got the EC ensemble in through 15 days. Shows an amplifying pattern across the U.S. by the 25th. Could be the beginning of another stormy period though not as cold as the past week.

[weatherdude1108]

Hi WxMan57, here in South Florida we are having one of the warmest winters I can remember. Besides about 36 hours of below normal temperatures this past week from the "polar vortex," (saw lows around 50F one night) we have generally seen lows in the low 70s and highs in the low to mid 80s this whole fall and winter so far...don't want to make you too jealous over there in Texas!

That's why I love Florida, besides having real sandy beaches (vs. Galveston). Will be heading over there for the National Hurricane Conference in April (Orlando).

We're taking up a collection for you to move there!

[weatherdude1108]

Based on the recent January thaw:

[Portastorm]

(Long sigh) ... it's come to this ... I'm having to look over old photo albums. Seems like forever ago this happened. February 4, 2011. I miss you.



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[TheProfessor]

(Long sigh) ... it's come to this ... I'm having to look over old photo albums. Seems like forever ago this happened. February 4, 2011. I miss you.

http://imageshack.us/a/img96/4337/snow1c.jpg

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http://imageshack.us/a/img683/1779/snow2vh.jpg

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ah yes! Those were some great times in North Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

Porta, stop it, snap out of it buddy! If our fearless leader at the PWC throws in the towel 10 days into January, what will the rest of us do?!?

It's the January thaw, not the end of winter. Hang in there, keep the faith, resist Lord Vader, and don't trust a model that is more than 5-7 days out.

Winter will return to Texas. Bank on it.

[Ntxw]

Porta, stop it, snap out of it buddy! If our fearless leader at the PWC throws in the towel 10 days into January, what will the rest of us do?!?

It's the January thaw, not the end of winter. Hang in there, keep the faith, resist Lord Vader, and don't trust a model that is more than 5-7 days out.

Winter will return to Texas. Bank on it.

We can't blame him, he hasn't seen real snow in a long time. We all know winter is not over until February is over, but this is the time of the season that tests the testament of cold mongerers every year! He will come through once the GFS shows a blizzard at 384 hours!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS depiction of next polar vortex at 183 hours. It's further south and deeper than the 12Z ECMWF and the 12Z GFS. Will be interested to see if the the models trend colder:

[TheStormExpert]

18Z GFS depiction of next polar vortex at 183 hours. It's further south and deeper than the 12Z ECMWF and the 12Z GFS. Will be interested to see if the the models trend colder:

http://imageshack.com/a/img197/706/lmth.gif

So how does this compare to the last Polar Vortex/Artic Cold Outbreak?

[LaBreeze]

Does it show any moisture with it?

[Tejas89]

Thought y'all might find this article interesting. How we've become cold weather wimps due to fewer cold snaps these days.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_DEEP_FREEZE_WEATHER_WIMPS?SITE=SCAND&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

As the world warms, the United States is getting fewer bitter cold spells like the one that gripped much of the nation this week. So when a deep freeze strikes, scientists say, it seems more unprecedented than it really is. An Associated Press analysis of the daily national winter temperature shows that cold extremes have happened about once every four years since 1900.

Until recently.

When computer models estimated that the national average daily temperature for the Lower 48 states dropped to 17.9 degrees on Monday, it was the first deep freeze of that magnitude in 17 years, according to Greg Carbin, warning meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

[wxman57]

So how does this compare to the last Polar Vortex/Artic Cold Outbreak?

It's much weaker, farther north and east and faster moving. That means most of the cold air heads east across the NE U.S. rather than south toward Texas.

[Big O]

Euro Day 15 (1/26) ensemble mean has a west coast ridge and trough across the eastern 1/2 of CONUS. 15 Day Control run has trough centered further west with a potent cutoff low across the SW CONUS. CFS V2 has cold returning to central and eastern U.S. late January (i.e., 1/28) through mid-February.

GFS Operational has AO going negative around Day 15. GFS Ensemble mean has PNA at neutral, possibly heading a little negative at or around Day 15. GFS Day 15 has NAO at neutral heading slightly negative. GFS Ensemble at Day 15 has EPO going slightly negative, but WPO is slightly positive.

While the signals are not unanimously in favor of a return of cold to the central and eastern U.S. (they rarely are), the majority of them (as shown above) do tend to support colder and stormier weather beginning very late January and possibly continuing through the first two weeks of February. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

So how does this compare to the last Polar Vortex/Artic Cold Outbreak?

It's much weaker, farther north and east and faster moving. That means most of the cold air heads east across the NE U.S. rather than south toward Texas.

And we also have to consider source regions as you like to say. Pacific air mass involved and home brew cold unlike it's predecessor. No monster high to drive it south so areas not under the vortex (lakes and NE) doesn't see lasting cold or as intense. And I'm starting to get tired of the word polar vortex lol. People need to understand it's the blocking in the EPO or NAO region that matters not said vortex. Media craziness.

Good analysis big O, thanks for the thoughts. Nice to see some level headed thinking

[Texas Snowman]

See what a difference a day can make? A little hope that we can end the rule of the Heat Star.

[Ntxw]

And it's also nice to see the GEFS trend closer to the Euro ens in retrograting west coast ridge towards AK/NW Can, this is very different from their troughs in that region before. Hopefully it will signal that the GFS op may change its tune in the next few days.

[Big O]

In his Saturday Summary, JB is advising of possible Arctic intrusion late January into February. While he is not always right, model data seems to be lining up in favor of return to cold and storminess late January. I hope this cheers you up, Porta. Wxman57, your control over the weather may be coming to an end. It is time to restore balance to the force.

[BigB0882]

But where is that intrusion? If it stays to the East then it does us no good. JB tends to focus on what is happening in the NorthEast and pays very little attention elsewhere.

[wxman57]

But where is that intrusion? If it stays to the East then it does us no good. JB tends to focus on what is happening in the NorthEast and pays very little attention elsewhere.

That's what I was about to say. His world exists from Pennsylvania eastward. I'm sure we'll see more cold weather in Texas, but it's not looking like any major cold fronts in January. Probably the 2nd week of February.

[Texas Snowman]

The second week of February?!?

LOL! Looks like even the Heat Miser himself looks at the models all the way out into the La-La Land time frames!

Bastardi's world may only exist from State College and points eastward but Lord Vader's world exists only from 80 degrees and up.

If only the rebel forces can sneak a snow bomb down the tailpipe of the Heat Star by winter's end!