SIO: COLIN - Tropical Cyclone 08S

[HURAKAN]

COLIN putting on a show

[hurricanes1234]

Another one here fails to strengthen as forecast. Similar to Bejisa when it stopped intensifying for no reason. What's pretty about this cyclone is its distance from land.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Another one here fails to strengthen as forecast. Similar to Bejisa when it stopped intensifying for no reason. What's pretty about this cyclone is its distance from land.

"Another one here fails to strengthen as forecast."

Forecasts are meant to be wrong. It has reached a peak of 115 Knots. No 2013 Atlantic Hurricane even got close to that.

[hurricanes1234]

Another one here fails to strengthen as forecast. Similar to Bejisa when it stopped intensifying for no reason. What's pretty about this cyclone is its distance from land.

"Another one here fails to strengthen as forecast."

Forecasts are meant to be wrong. It has reached a peak of 115 Knots. No 2013 Atlantic Hurricane even got close to that.

I understand what you mean. However, the 2013 ATL season was an extreme anomaly - not even a single major hurricane and pathetic short-lived storms otherwise. To me, Colin fell short because yesterday at 21z, the JTWC forecasted a peak of 130 knots, which was very realistic given the intensification that was going on previously. However, for some reason (I don't know) it stopped strengthening. But I do see your point, however, it was just that I was puzzled as to why it magically stopped intensifying. I apologise if I offended anyone.

[stormkite]

Another one here fails to strengthen as forecast. Similar to Bejisa when it stopped intensifying for no reason. What's pretty about this cyclone is its distance from land.

"Another one here fails to strengthen as forecast."

Forecasts are meant to be wrong. It has reached a peak of 115 Knots. No 2013 Atlantic Hurricane even got close to that.

I understand what you mean. However, the 2013 ATL season was an extreme anomaly - not even a single major hurricane and pathetic short-lived storms otherwise. To me, Colin fell short because yesterday at 21z, the JTWC forecasted a peak of 130 knots, which was very realistic given the intensification that was going on previously. However, for some reason (I don't know) it stopped strengthening. But I do see your point, however, it was just that I was puzzled as to why it magically stopped intensifying. I apologise if I offended anyone.

There was nothing offensive in that post you got nothing to opoligise for.

As or the magic halt in intensity my guess is water temp at depth may have been cooler.


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[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 24.9S 73.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 73.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.6S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.3S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.8S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.3S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 73.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DIMINISHED CONVECTIVE BANDING AS TC 08S CONTINUES ITS
WEAKENING TREND. A 131629Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING TC
08S TO RECURVE AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TC 08S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DUE
TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN