Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Are you noticing that your Heat Miser posts are now being all but ignored?

Thank you for replying to my post!

GFS 500mb flow starts to look interesting beyond 240hrs then it goes flat a few days later. I wouldn't believe it beyond 5 days.

[Ntxw]

Winter war at it's best, good vs evil, hot vs cold!

Here's an update on the SST's in the Pacific. The NE Pacific is still the warmest pool (taken by average) that I can find using re-analysis it's possibly slightly beating 1899 at the same time period. Notice the cooling that recently has gone on just south of Japan. This is -WPO territory with ridging above and lower heights below.

[Ntxw]

For example, Texas had major hear and drought problems in the 50's, the AMO was +, some of the best cold weather the US has seen was in the 70's and 80's, the AMO was - , forward to Y2K, Texas has been back warmer than normal with major droughts again, the AMO is +

That doesn't truly explain the 1800s when it was far colder than anything we saw in modern times. And you have to look at the cold blasts themselves, they are all associated with a tanking -EPO in the Pacific not Atlantic. 1989 was overall not a cold winter, 83 was so so after the pacific unloaded and went positive, as was 77<- this one had a powerful warm pool, and 78. The AMO like PDO is a background pattern and is something you use on a decadal scale, not seasonally, for averages and yearly precipitation. But that is a good thinking on your part

You can check out the daily EPO here. Some dates to find is Christmas time 83, 89, late Jan 85, Mid Jan 94, Feb 94, earlier this season, Feb 11, Jan 61, Jan 62. It is to unbelievable the correlation. And then check out 2011-12, we had a couple of negative bumps in Mid Jan and a little in Feb, then just positives as far as the eye can see.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[wxman57]

Looking through the 16-day GFS ensemble data now. One thing that catches my eye is that 850mb temps are projected to be well above normal (+8-12C) across Alaska and all of western Canada through day 15. By day 16 I'm seeing temps cooling below normal (-3-5C) in western Canada. Keep an eye on the source region. Cold core remains centered over Great Lakes.

[Texas Snowman]

Winter war at it's best, good vs evil, hot vs cold!

Yes sir, I love this board and our discussions. Even when Wxman57 dashes our dreams. He may be a Heat Miser, but he's OUR Heat Miser.

Ok, enough of the warm fuzzy stuff. Back to work to crash his party and send a snow bomb down the stovepipe of the Heat Star.

[Texas Snowman]

Have seen the occasional reference to Feb. 1899 in a few places.

Not suggesting that will happen again in our lifetimes, but you never know.

And FWIW, the coldest cold wave in U.S. history was in MID February.

Hopefully this will be a February to remember, especially in Texas.

[wxman57]

I'd like this to be a February to remember as well, Texas Snowman. Just like February 1986...

[Big O]

Day 10 European Operational has impressive ridge along west coast well up into Alaska and deep trough across eastern/central US. In addition to this favorable flow pattern, 850 temperature anomalies are quite cold in south/central Canada and north/central CONUS. Air appears to be aiming south/southeast. Let's wait on the ensembles, but retrograding trough appears to be in the works.

[Comanche]

Anyone watching the euro ens run? How far along and what's it looking like?

[TheProfessor]

Anyone watching the euro ens run? How far along and what's it looking like?

Could someone also tell me where you can view euro ens runs for free?

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught

[wxman57]

@BigJoeBastardi: Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught

A heat wave is coming?!

[wxman57]

Anyone watching the euro ens run? How far along and what's it looking like?

Ensembles are only in through 168hrs on WeatherBELL's site.

[Ntxw]

@BigJoeBastardi: Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught

A heat wave is coming?!

In Alaska, how about above freezing for Fairbanks? You can do that right?

[TheProfessor]

@BigJoeBastardi: Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught

A heat wave is coming?!

By heat wave do you mean it's so cold that it's hot?

[Portastorm]

@BigJoeBastardi: Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught

A heat wave is coming?!

In Alaska, how about above freezing for Fairbanks? You can do that right?

That's it, Ntxw! Come early February when it's colder in Houston than it is in Fairbanks, we send our dear friend wxman57 on a trip to the Land of the Midnight Sun for a little R&R!

[wxman57]

By heat wave do you mean it's so cold that it's hot?

Well, maybe not a heat wave. (unless you're in Alaska where the Euro has well above normal 850mb temps next 10 days)

Ensembles in through 240 hrs. Not much change from the last run. Center of cold is right over Ohio/Indiana. Slightly below-normal 850mb temps across Texas. Western Canada remains well above normal.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Ensembles in through 240 hrs. Not much change from the last run. Center of cold is right over Ohio/Indiana. Slightly below-normal 850mb temps across Texas. Western Canada remains well above normal.

(but we will pay for this come spring/summer I'm pretty sure).

[Portastorm]

Wonderful news from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) from their 8-14 day forecast discussion today:

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29 2014

THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY, WITH GROWING
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS AN EXPECTED
SUBTLE RETROGRESSION WHEN COMPARED WITH BOTH THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK AND
YESTERDAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK. THE GFS AND ECMWF SYSTEMS DIVERGE IN SOME NUANCED
DETAILS OF THE OUTLOOK, HOWEVER, WITH THE GFS FAVORING COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IS INTRIGUING SINCE BOTH
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL. TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECAST OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE FAVORS THE GFS
SOLUTION, AND SO TODAY'S MANUAL SURFACE OUTLOOK REFLECTS MORE OF THE GFS
SOLUTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
HAS BEEN REASONABLY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS
OF THE GFS, ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST A COLDER SOLUTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS,
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOWER AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE,
HOWEVER, FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALONG THE EAST COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DESPITE
DRIER-THAN-MEDIAN SIGNALS FROM THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED BASED ON THE TELECONNECTIONS AND ANALOGS. ESSENTIALLY, THIS SOLUTION
HEDGES TOWARD THE IDEA THAT THE FORECAST WAVELENGTHS ARE PROBABLY TOO LONG
BASED ON THE FORECAST AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
THE TELECONNECTIONS AND ANALOGS ARE MORE REALISTIC IN THIS REGARD AND HAVE
ADDED SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS.

THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE ANOMALY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE LINE IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THIS COULD FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND BEYOND, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

[Ntxw]

Ensembles in through 240 hrs. Not much change from the last run. Center of cold is right over Ohio/Indiana. Slightly below-normal 850mb temps across Texas. Western Canada remains well above normal.

(but we will pay for this come spring/summer I'm pretty sure).

Oh yes, he better let us have our cold now or we will make it cold and snow in the spring! Cold mongerers! I wonder if we can beat 2009-10 in thread count, 477 come on guys we can do it!