Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

So I decided to try making a meteogram (thanks to wxman57's fabulous instructions)

I used Mesquite since it's closer to Rockwall than Love Field or DFW.

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center Day 8-14 Outlook offers some insight as to the upcoming extended range forecast and what the actual sensible weather may be across our Region as we end January and begin February.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29 2014

THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY, WITH GROWING
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS AN EXPECTED
SUBTLE RETROGRESSION WHEN COMPARED WITH BOTH THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK AND
YESTERDAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK. THE GFS AND ECMWF SYSTEMS DIVERGE IN SOME NUANCED
DETAILS OF THE OUTLOOK, HOWEVER, WITH THE GFS FAVORING COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IS INTRIGUING SINCE BOTH
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL. TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECAST OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE FAVORS THE GFS
SOLUTION, AND SO TODAY'S MANUAL SURFACE OUTLOOK REFLECTS MORE OF THE GFS
SOLUTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
HAS BEEN REASONABLY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS
OF THE GFS, ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST A COLDER SOLUTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS,
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOWER AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE,
HOWEVER, FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALONG THE EAST COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DESPITE
DRIER-THAN-MEDIAN SIGNALS FROM THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED BASED ON THE TELECONNECTIONS AND ANALOGS. ESSENTIALLY, THIS SOLUTION
HEDGES TOWARD THE IDEA THAT THE FORECAST WAVELENGTHS ARE PROBABLY TOO LONG
BASED ON THE FORECAST AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
THE TELECONNECTIONS AND ANALOGS ARE MORE REALISTIC IN THIS REGARD AND HAVE
ADDED SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS.

THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE ANOMALY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE LINE IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THIS COULD FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND BEYOND, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 45
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS,
AS WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALONG THE EAST COAST.

[Big O]

Euro ensemble mean is good, not great, for Texas winter lovers in Days 10-15. Now the control run is a thing to behold in Days 10-15. Astounding pattern for most of us with temperature anomalies running significantly below average; Wxman57 will hate it once he sees it. Of course, he will point out that this forecast is not likely to verify. Wishful thinking for the win.

[Ntxw]

To add the Euro and GFS crashes the -EPO off the charts. ENS is extremely low for a means. Will it verify??? The EPO will be negative within the next few days question is how low will it go?

[gboudx]

So I decided to try making a meteogram (thanks to wxman57's fabulous instructions)

I used Mesquite since it's closer to Rockwall than Love Field or DFW.

No precip to be seen on that meteo. Sigh.

[dhweather]

So I decided to try making a meteogram (thanks to wxman57's fabulous instructions)

I used Mesquite since it's closer to Rockwall than Love Field or DFW.

No precip to be seen on that meteo. Sigh.

Unfortunately, not a drop.

[orangeblood]

Euro ensemble mean is good, not great, for Texas winter lovers in Days 10-15. Now the control run is a thing to behold in Days 10-15. Astounding pattern for most of us with temperature anomalies running significantly below average; Wxman57 will hate it once he sees it. Of course, he will point out that this forecast is not likely to verify. Wishful thinking for the win.

Confirmation Bias is what makes this board much more entertaining to follow over say a NWS forecast discussion. Most see what they want to see

I for one am noticing a rare pattern setting up that has the potential to rival some great Arctic Outbreaks. Just wondering what ingredients this set up is missing ? Upper Level configuration ? no, almost textbook. Snowcover?-no, plenty for this time of year.Source Region? Debatable but the Artic Circle is covered with cold anomalies now and over the next 7-10 days. And most all ensembles are trending colder and more extreme in the extended. One thing is for certain - you could make a few quick bucks on natural gas futures in the next few days as the market begins to catch onto what is coming!!

[gatorcane]

Winter war at it's best, good vs evil, hot vs cold!

Yes sir, I love this board and our discussions. Even when Wxman57 dashes our dreams. He may be a Heat Miser, but he's OUR Heat Miser.

Ok, enough of the warm fuzzy stuff. Back to work to crash his party and send a snow bomb down the stovepipe of the Heat Star.

I am not even from Texas and this thread has sucked me in

[Ntxw]

Confirmation Bias is what makes this board much more entertaining to follow over say a NWS forecast discussion. Most see what they want to see

I for one am noticing a rare pattern setting up that has the potential to rival some great Arctic Outbreaks. Just wondering what ingredients this set up is missing ? Upper Level configuration ? no, almost textbook. Snowcover?-no, plenty for this time of year.Source Region? Debatable but the Artic Circle is covered with cold anomalies now and over the next 7-10 days. And most all ensembles are trending colder and more extreme in the extended. One thing is for certain - you could make a few quick bucks on natural gas futures in the next few days as the market begins to catch onto what is coming!!

Time is missing. People don't believe changes until they see it in their backyards. Some of us are too keyed into what is going on in a specific area on a map. You must look globally everything is connected. Sure the EPO ridge is retrograding but why is it retrograding? Because the WPO is changing and ridges travelling up above the PNA and changing the height fields. Where will the cold come from? Canada doesn't generate brutally cold air ASIA does where true cA air is made. So how do we tap into that? EPO bridge because when the jet stream rises in the NPAC it doesn't flow over the warm ocean it flows from the fields of Siberia and Kamchatka, that is how cold air is made into NA, hence EPO/WPO is he cold loading pattern! This is why the Pacific is so important, it is the bridge between US and Asia. The bust and glory always lies with the EPO, such long range busts occur when the Pacific backs out and decides not to raise the heights vice versa.

[weatherdude1108]

Wonderful news from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) from their 8-14 day forecast discussion today:

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29 2014

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALONG THE EAST COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DESPITE
DRIER-THAN-MEDIAN SIGNALS FROM THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED BASED ON THE TELECONNECTIONS AND ANALOGS. ESSENTIALLY, THIS SOLUTION
HEDGES TOWARD THE IDEA THAT THE FORECAST WAVELENGTHS ARE PROBABLY TOO LONG
BASED ON THE FORECAST AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
THE TELECONNECTIONS AND ANALOGS ARE MORE REALISTIC IN THIS REGARD AND HAVE
ADDED SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS.

THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE ANOMALY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE LINE IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THIS COULD FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND BEYOND, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

I hope it picks up on some precipitation! This is the most depressing EWX discussion I have seen in a while with respect to precipitation chances (liquid or otherwise). Also add a fire danger. We had a grass fire yesterday near work off of I35. Shut down the highway for a bit. Probably a cigarette butt.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
248 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROFFING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH NW OR W FLOW EXPECTED IN THE MID
LEVELS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ZERO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE FRONTS CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO GATHER ENOUGH MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
BRING AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE DRY
AIR HAS MADE IT WELL DOWN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO HOWEVER AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS OF GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING BACK MORNING
CLOUDINESS. I THINK THIS CLOUDINESS HAS A LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRING
THIS FAR NORTH SO WILL KEEP MAINLY CLEAR. MONDAY COULD BE VERY
WARM WITH A PREFRONTAL TROF/DRYLINE COMING INTO THE CWA WITH MORE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
MON OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITIES DROP TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF THE SPEEDS
ON THURSDAY GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NEAR CRITICAL.

[TheProfessor]

I also really want the models to start showing a lot of precipitation. Wouldn't it be great if everyone received 6+ inches of snow!

[wxman57]

Euro ensemble mean is good, not great, for Texas winter lovers in Days 10-15. Now the control run is a thing to behold in Days 10-15. Astounding pattern for most of us with temperature anomalies running significantly below average; Wxman57 will hate it once he sees it. Of course, he will point out that this forecast is not likely to verify. Wishful thinking for the win.

Looking at it now. The ensemble mean 850mb temp anomaly has Texas near normal on days 10-15. The control run has 850mb temps above normal from Dallas to Houston but below normal north of Dallas (5C-8C below normal central OK). Dome of cold air over Minnesota but some of it in the TX panhandle.

Certainly not a hot pattern for Texas, but nothing yet saying record-breaking pipe-busting cold across Texas through January - which has been my point. Prior to the last outbreak there was major cold building in Alaska and western Canada for weeks in advance. This time, the Euro is indicating way above normal temps in Alaska but falling temps in western Canada in 10 days or so. I think that any really significant outbreak would be delayed until the 2nd week of February.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The models still look to be TRYING to sniff something out but its still la la land. Im holding firm on a big blast in Feb. 1899 had a similar warm pool of water (i believe), we all know what happened then, also what about the winter of '17-'18, Joe Bastardi talked about that analog a bit a few days ago. Im not sure what kind of winter we head then though.

While the NW looked persistent, still think its a bit early folks. Got some time still for another blast and i def think its coming. Models are trying to get it. With that said, it was mentioned, we dont have the crazy cold in the source region either. Its all pouring into the NE right now. A westerly flow for a week or so, to build up those cold temps in the arctic, wouldnt kill us, might help us snow birds out in the long run

[ravyrn]

Data continue to show relatively uneventful weather prevailing for at least the next 7 days here in north Texas with just an occasional modest cold front or two bringing slightly cooler temps but no real moisture prospects. HOWEVER, there are some curious signals showing up in the stat method in 10-13 day range. I'll try to nail these down some more after my video lecture tonight

^Per Steve McCauley on Facebook.

[Big O]

Euro ensemble mean is good, not great, for Texas winter lovers in Days 10-15. Now the control run is a thing to behold in Days 10-15. Astounding pattern for most of us with temperature anomalies running significantly below average; Wxman57 will hate it once he sees it. Of course, he will point out that this forecast is not likely to verify. Wishful thinking for the win.

Looking at it now. The ensemble mean 850mb temp anomaly has Texas near normal on days 10-15. The control run has 850mb temps above normal from Dallas to Houston but below normal north of Dallas (5C-8C below normal central OK). Dome of cold air over Minnesota but some of it in the TX panhandle.

Certainly not a hot pattern for Texas, but nothing yet saying record-breaking pipe-busting cold across Texas through January - which has been my point. Prior to the last outbreak there was major cold building in Alaska and western Canada for weeks in advance. This time, the Euro is indicating way above normal temps in Alaska but falling temps in western Canada in 10 days or so. I think that any really significant outbreak would be delayed until the 2nd week of February.

With all due respect, you are only looking at the day 10-15 mean temperature anomaly on the control run. The mean is skewed towards warmer because of the warm anomalies on days 11.5 and 12. Day 12.5 shows a strong push of air blasting through Texas. Significantly cold anomalies continue for about a day followed by a brief warmup. Day 15 has even colder air in the northern Plains heading south.

[orangeblood]

Well it appears most all teleconnection indices are trending very favorable for winter to make its return except one, the MJO. It's becoming active again but into Phase 6, if it begins to swing around into 7-8, the southern plains should become a winter playground towards the end of the month and into early Feb

[TheProfessor]

Well it appears most all teleconnection indices are trending very favorable for winter to make its return except one, the MJO. It's becoming active again but into Phase 6, if it begins to swing around into 7-8, the southern plains should become a winter playground towards the end of the month and into early Feb

Do the models have the mjo staying in phase 6? Or do they have it moving into phase 7&8? And which phase produces the modt preciptation in Texas.

[CaptinCrunch]

Everything says mild weather thru January, however the pattern with start it's change back to a colder regime around the 28th. February will more than likely start off cold for a big part of the middle of the country.

[Big O]

Thought I would share this from Don who posts on another weather board (I don't believe I am violating any disclosure agreements):



Please note that the image on the lower left should read 1/16/2014 6z GFS not 2013.

One can see that the 6z GFS trended much colder for Texas based on the composite analogs.

[orangeblood]

Thought I would share this from Don who posts on another weather board (I don't believe I am violating any disclosure agreements):



Please note that the image on the lower left should read 1/16/2014 6z GFS not 2013.

One can see that the 6z GFS trended much colder for Texas based on the composite analogs.

If you look close, the one key difference between the 0Z & 6Z runs is the location of the high height anomalies over NW North America. 0Z has the mean ridge axis over the coast of British Columbia while the 6Z has the axis over Alaska....this has big implications for our weather in the southern plains as the former would keep most of the cold air off to the north and east while the latter would send a big chunk into the southern plains. Something to pay close attention to in the coming days.....it can be quantified somewhat by the EPO index - higher the heights in and around Alaska, the more extreme negative the EPO index will be