Texas Winter 2013-2014
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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The pic has 2013 on the bottom one, confused me at first... Nice post though
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
I'm seeing a lot of "chatter" this morning online this morning from both very educated amateurs and private sector meteorologists speaking to a growing possibility of high-latitude blocking on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Combine that with an increasing, negative magnitude EPO.
Should that verify folks, wxman57 can draw meteograms until he's blue in the face but it won't mean anything. Eventually those model runs and meteograms will start showing the inevitable: a retrograding ridge-trough pattern over the US with no progressive flow. A pattern which would bring well below normal temperatures and a more active southern stream jet into play.
Again, if it happens ... my guess is late January into the first week or two of February should be a heckuva lot of fun for us. Well, most of us.
Should that verify folks, wxman57 can draw meteograms until he's blue in the face but it won't mean anything. Eventually those model runs and meteograms will start showing the inevitable: a retrograding ridge-trough pattern over the US with no progressive flow. A pattern which would bring well below normal temperatures and a more active southern stream jet into play.
Again, if it happens ... my guess is late January into the first week or two of February should be a heckuva lot of fun for us. Well, most of us.

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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Portastorm wrote:I'm seeing a lot of "chatter" this morning online this morning from both very educated amateurs and private sector meteorologists speaking to a growing possibility of high-latitude blocking on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Combine that with an increasing, negative magnitude EPO.
Should that verify folks, wxman57 can draw meteograms until he's blue in the face but it won't mean anything. Eventually those model runs and meteograms will start showing the inevitable: a retrograding ridge-trough pattern over the US with no progressive flow. A pattern which would bring well below normal temperatures and a more active southern stream jet into play.
Again, if it happens ... my guess is late January into the first week or two of February should be a heckuva lot of fun for us. Well, most of us.
So Portastorm....are you guessing that it is too early to plant tomatoes??????? It would be nice to have just one snow this year...
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

natlib, I wouldn't plant those 'maters just yet!


No sir I wouldn't.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Just to keep things grounded a bit.. FW morning discussion made a point to say no indications of a pattern shift heading into late January.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Tejas89 wrote:Just to keep things grounded a bit.. FW morning discussion made a point to say no indications of a pattern shift heading into late January.
OK, I'm posting now as a member and not as a moderator. I take issue with the suggestion that my posts or the posts of others who believe a pattern change is in the offing are posts that are not grounded or not based in fact. They are. We reference indices, model runs, other sources, etc. It's not wish-casting at all. None of us are making this stuff up. It's taking factual data and information and speculating on that information. So to suggest that our posts are not "grounded" is inaccurate at best and insulting at worst. Sorry but that's how I see it.
I see the comment Fort Worth made -- "FOR NOW THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE JANUARY." -- and I find it quite surprising. Especially coming from the office where the great Dennis Cavanaugh works. I don't know what NWS Fort Worth defines as a "major signal" but there are plenty of suggestions and signals which do suggest a pattern shift. I would disagree with their assessment.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Great post and I agree.
Portastorm wrote:Tejas89 wrote:Just to keep things grounded a bit.. FW morning discussion made a point to say no indications of a pattern shift heading into late January.
OK, I'm posting now as a member and not as a moderator. I take issue with the suggestion that my posts or the posts of others who believe a pattern change is in the offing are posts that are not grounded or not based in fact. They are. We reference indices, model runs, other sources, etc. It's not wish-casting at all. None of us are making this stuff up. It's taking factual data and information and speculating on that information. So to suggest that our posts are not "grounded" is inaccurate at best and insulting at worst. Sorry but that's how I see it.
I see the comment Fort Worth made -- "FOR NOW THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE JANUARY." -- and I find it quite surprising. Especially coming from the office where the great Dennis Cavanaugh works. I don't know what NWS Fort Worth defines as a "major signal" but there are plenty of suggestions and signals which do suggest a pattern shift. I would disagree with their assessment.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Portastorm wrote:Tejas89 wrote:Just to keep things grounded a bit.. FW morning discussion made a point to say no indications of a pattern shift heading into late January.
OK, I'm posting now as a member and not as a moderator. I take issue with the suggestion that my posts or the posts of others who believe a pattern change is in the offing are posts that are not grounded or not based in fact. They are. We reference indices, model runs, other sources, etc. It's not wish-casting at all. None of us are making this stuff up. It's taking factual data and information and speculating on that information. So to suggest that our posts are not "grounded" is inaccurate at best and insulting at worst. Sorry but that's how I see it.
I see the comment Fort Worth made -- "FOR NOW THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE JANUARY." -- and I find it quite surprising. Especially coming from the office where the great Dennis Cavanaugh works. I don't know what NWS Fort Worth defines as a "major signal" but there are plenty of suggestions and signals which do suggest a pattern shift. I would disagree with their assessment.
That comment from the FW office is extremely puzzling considering almost every major signal for a pattern shift to cold is in the long range forecast. Whether they realize it or not, their comments sometimes have huge implications for the economy particularly regarding natural gas/energy storage for potential extreme events such as this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Oh, and here's a meteogram for Mesquite from the 00Z GFS - bone dry and above freezing through 192 hours.


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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
dhweather wrote:From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.
There's a big difference between making a forecast that far out based on what we know now as compared to making a general statement. I guess it all depends on how one defines a "major signal." Perhaps they'll consider the recently issued 12z GFS operational run a "major signal." The model shows for Texas a cross-polar flow and an active southern stream the last few days of January. You might want to extend your little meteogram to show what the model shows 240-360 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
dhweather wrote:From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.
You realize there is middle ground between "there are no signals" and "we are definitely getting snow," right?
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
dhweather wrote:From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.
Run with something ? Most every tool (paid by the taxpayers) they have at their disposal points towards a major pattern change. They made a definitive statement that there are NO major signals for a pattern change....to some on this board that is not what we as taxpayers pay them for, "to go with their gut" per say. Long range forecasting has huge implications on energy storage and is not something to be taken lightly or conservatively for that matter. Better to be safe the sorry particularly during extreme cold outbreaks
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Portastorm wrote:dhweather wrote:From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.
There's a big difference between making a forecast that far out based on what we know now as compared to making a general statement. I guess it all depends on how one defines a "major signal." Perhaps they'll consider the recently issued 12z GFS operational run a "major signal." The model shows for Texas a cross-polar flow and an active southern stream the last few days of January. You might want to extend your little meteogram to show what the model shows 240-360 hours.
finishing that up right now, and some people are going to be happy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Meteogram from the 12Z GFS - 192+ hours
As soon as I can figure out how to change the scale, I will. In the meantime, what the model shows, it's below freezing and precip.

As soon as I can figure out how to change the scale, I will. In the meantime, what the model shows, it's below freezing and precip.

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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
orangeblood wrote:dhweather wrote:From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.
Run with something ? Most every tool (paid by the taxpayers) they have at their disposal points towards a major pattern change. They made a definitive statement that there are NO major signals for a pattern change....to some on this board that is not what we as taxpayers pay them for, "to go with their gut" per say. Long range forecasting has huge implications on energy storage and is not something to be taken lightly or conservatively for that matter. Better to be safe the sorry particularly during extreme cold outbreaks
They always play it conservative. Yes, I think there is a good chance of a significant pattern change around the first of February. They just aren't going to go out on a limb beyond 7 days, I've never seen them do that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
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