TheStormExpert wrote:I feel that 2014 will once again be a below average season somewhat similar to 2013.Might as well just play it safe and expect the possibility of well below average instability throughout the Atlantic basin especially the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. Pretty decent chance that this season will in fact be an El Niño season since we have not seen an El Niño season in over four years now. Also would not be surprised to see a good bit of dry air and wind shear throughout the season especially if an El Niño does occur. But of course it is WAY TOO SOON to be making these types of predictions for the 2014 season especially after the big bust of a season 2013 was.
the pattern is shaping up like a carbon copy of last year. ridge west, trough east and a broad wnw flow sweeping off the east coast. too early for concrete predictions but it would be totally stunning if we add to the major cane record of not landfalling in the US. this is a multi-year pattern now since at least 2009. when will the pattern reverse? there is good news of course, if this remains the constant pattern severe season should be below normal and cane landfalls anywhere in the continental US would be unlikely, though an oddity can always occur. right now odds favor another ridge sitting over texas this cane season. very protective of the US.