Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

Checking the latest runs from earlier this morning. Everything appears to remain on track for the potential of seeing the coldest weather of the season to invade the Deep South during the Monday-Wednesday period of early next week. It appears now that the GFS is starting to fall in line now with the EURO regarding the colder solution, compared to the last couple of days. Actually, checking the recent EURO run, it may actually get colder early next week. I will definitely monitor that closely.

The recent EURO run has the 540 Thickness line dropping south all the way to the Gulf Coast early next week. That shows the potential magnitude of just how cold this airmass is coming down early next week.

[Ntxw]

Definitely, teens could be arriving areas just north of the immediate gulf coast such as southern MS, Northern LA, southern AL. Big dome of high pressure in the plains and Ohio Valley with lack of SE ridging suggest arctic air into the deep south. The one area that may escape is deep south Florida. But northern and perhaps central Florida may see freezes again.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Ntxw with the trajectory of the Arctic High early next week moving more south than east will move the center of the High Axix closer to the Deep South region for sure. I no doubt see a couple of freezes here across my area early next week. It has been a long wait for Old Man Winter to show up around these partsn but I think he finally will come back to North and possibly to Central Florida with possible freezes next week.

[Ntxw]

I know you were asking for one of wxman57's meteograms bigB, but here is an output from the GFS.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBTR

It's a fun site to bookmark. Just put in your location and click 16 day forecast, it's GFS output and updates right after the model run is complete

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/search/getweather.php?locid=53176

Your coldest days would be Tuesday and Wednesday with highs around freezing on the first and upper 30s the next. Lows in the low 20s.

[BigB0882]

Thanks. I do have that book-marked but the time stamps confuse me. Why are highs happening at 00z? Is that because it is going in increments from when the current model is run?

[Ntxw]

Thanks. I do have that book-marked but the time stamps confuse me. Why are highs happening at 00z? Is that because it is going in increments from when the current model is run?

12z is 6am and 0z is 6pm. Since it is increments of 3hrs the high occurs within the 3hrs of 0z or 3, 4 or 5pm. 18z is Noon and 06z is midnight. It takes a bit of converting to understand UTC time but gets pretty easy after awhile and you'll understand when models run too with it.

Another thing to keep in mind is that people think 0z means it's the next day, it is not it is the same day. UTC time is the universal time based in England so for example 0z Thursday is actually 6pm on Wednesday for us. We don't switch to the next day until 06z since they are 6 hours ahead of us.

[northjaxpro]

I am awaiting the next model runs, but no question the coldest temps of the season will invade the Deep South early next week. Low temps currently indicated by MOS guidance may drop into the single digits across portions of the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday morning and teens across much of northern areas of MS, AL and GA and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas. Elsewhere min temps are forecast to drop down into 20s all the way to the Gulf Coast and across north Florida on Tuesday morning.

EURO is showing a rather strong mid-level vorticity max which is forecast to move across the Tennessee Valley during Sunday and Sunday night as the as the next arctic frontal boundary pushes through the region. This may bring a chance of snow to areas of Tennessee, North Alabama and North Georgia into Sunday evening. So Brent, there is a possibility that you may see some of the white stuff for the second time this season in your area of Alabama.

[northjaxpro]

Latest EURO surface temps for minimums Tuesday, January 7 2014




GFS latest for same time 12Z Tuesday morning. Notice GFS continues to trend a bit colder in the Deep South. This run shows a potential freeze down into Central Florida.

[Jag95]

Mobile NWS is mentioning a small window of opportunity for some light snow or flurries in the northern sections of the forecast area before the moisture moves on. The 00Z GFS looks a little interesting in the 57-60 hour time frame (early Monday morning). Just a flurry maybe? Sure would make the cold a little more bearable.

[Brent]

The coldest air seen here since at least 1996

Sunday Night Rain and snow likely before midnight, then a chance of snow between midnight and 3am, then a chance of flurries after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Blustery, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Monday A chance of flurries after 10am. Sunny, with a high near 20. Blustery.
Monday Night Clear, with a low around 8.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 26.
Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 16.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 38.

[northjaxpro]

I am up late as well looking at the latest runs and I am here to tell you we may be looking at the potential of seeing some record cold temps early next week across many areas of the Deep South. I dare say almost near historic for a few areas of the SE U.S., especially across the Tennessee Valley region looking at the latest runs! Also, another thing to note is that a fresh snowpack across the Ohio Valley and Mid Mississippi Valley will be established by Monday, which will keep this arctic airmass coming down from modifying. Also, with the strong shortwave moving through the TN Valley region during Sunday, 2-4 inches of snow now is being forcast in Nashville, adding to the snowpack in the short term. It is really going to be interesting following this early next week. Unbelievable MOS guidance readings for temps next week. Plus, as discussed above, some light snow up in northern Alabama and North Georgia late in the day Sunday into Sunday evening before that frigid air behind the arctic boundary sweeps in and dries out the atmosphere in the region late Sunday into Monday.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
205 PM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO IMPACT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

.BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY STARTING LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
ABOVE 20 MPH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WILL COMBINE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. BUT AS WINDS
SLACKEN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION...PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS COLD.
THIS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO NEAR ZERO ON
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS AGAIN FALLING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
COLDEST SEEN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN NEARLY TWO DECADES.

ALZ009-010-TNZ076-096-097-051200-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WC.W.0001.140106T1000Z-140107T1500Z/
JACKSON-DEKALB-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
205 PM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...RANGING FROM ZERO TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ON
MONDAY MORNING...REMAINING BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
VALUES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE COLDEST VALUES WILL OCCUR IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDS OF PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO
COLD TEMPERATURES FOR PEOPLE AND ANIMALS...THE RAPID ARRIVAL OF
THIS COLD AIR COULD CAUSE MOISTURE ON AREA ROADWAYS TO FREEZE AND
CAUSE SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 PM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY
EVENING...BRINGING COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WILL COMBINE
WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW ZERO TO
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.

ALZ011>015-017>029-034-051200-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WC.Y.0001.140106T0600Z-140107T0000Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-BIBB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...PELHAM...
ALABASTER...PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...
ROANOKE...CENTREVILLE
251 PM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO
6 PM CST MONDAY.

* TIMING...OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE AFTER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...BETWEEN TEN DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO ZERO
DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW 0 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&

[Brent]

What an AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
334 PM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AND COVER MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY. THIS AIR MASS WILL
HOLD STRONG FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE SOME MODERATION TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS AIR MASS IS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND COLD OUTBREAK IN AT LEAST A DECADE. BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILL FACTORS...AND WINTRY WEATHER WILL MAKE
MANY AREAS HAZARDOUS. TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE COLD WEATHER BEFORE
IT ARRIVES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FORECAST AT HAND THIS
PACKAGE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS RUN HAVE THINGS A BIT MORE
TRICKY CONCERNING FROZEN PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN MONITORING THESE
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW AND AM NOT READY TO LOWER ANY
POTENTIAL THREATS...AND KEEP THE OVERALL FORECAST TREND AND
THREATS THE SAME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE BAD
NEWS WITH THIS PROSPECT IS THAT RAIN WILL FALL NEAR THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

MODEL CONTINUITY WAS NOT THAT GOOD THIS RUN GENERALLY DEPICTING
MOISTURE AT A LESSER DEPTH AND FOR A SHORTER TIME FRAME. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOT NECESSARILY BUY INTO THESE SUBTLE CHANGES
AS ARCTIC AIR HAS A TENDENCY TO SQUEEZE ALL MOISTURE OUT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE THERMAL PROFILE NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL
AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SO IT APPEARS THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE.

THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LIMIT THE TIMING SLIGHTLY TO ONLY FAR FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z...THEN RAPIDLY SWITCHING FROM RAIN TO A MIX TO
SNOW BETWEEN 00-04Z WEST TO EAST. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF ANY WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION HAZARDS AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE WINDOW REMAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION. DUE TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES WITH
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE INCREASINGLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL DIP
THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO ZERO OR BELOW. THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BELOW 15 DEGREES AND WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY
LOCATIONS. A HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AS
TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...AND THE COLD CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE
PERSONAL HARM. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW AND BE PREPARED
FOR THESE ABNORMALLY COLD CONDITIONS.

[Ntxw]

I don't know if it's believable or not but the GFS has Florida dewpoints in places such as Orlando and Jacksonville below 0! In fact -10 below (again DP's not temperatures). This has got to be some kind of record, Florida!

[northjaxpro]

The latest 12Z GFS 850 mb run for Tuesday morning. This latest run truly paints the picture well. Two features stand out prominently. First, the large 1036 mb Arctic High dome centered over Eastern TX funneling down that northerly flow straight down fom the Polar regions all the way to the GOM. This Arctic High IMO depicted may be a bit stronger than what is being shown on this run at this time on Tuesday morning. The entire Central and Eastern CONUS at this time is locked into the deep freeze!!!

Also, the 850 mb 0 degree Celisus line falling to almost to the Interstate 4 corridor in Central Florida. Impressive! This likely will bring surface temps at or slightly below freezing in that area on Tuesday morning.

[Brent]

The frozen precip doesn't appear to be a big issue here... but the cold is historic:

[SeGaBob]

This thread's been dead for a while so... How might the next shot of cold air discussed in the Texas winter thread affect the Southeast U.S if model runs verify? I know it's still more than 10 days away though.

[northjaxpro]

This thread's been dead for a while so... How might the next shot of cold air discussed in the Texas winter thread affect the Southeast U.S if model runs verify? I know it's still more than 10 days away though.

Well, it is all dependent upon the source region. A pronounced + PNA is currently ongoing and looking at long range 10 day model runs, it appears that this current pattern of ridging out west and deep troughing across the Eastern U.S. will maintain possibly through the end of January. If this pattern holds, we will definitely several cold spells in the days to come for sure. Chances are pretty good that arctc air from the polar region and across western Canada will pool again and dive south /southeastward into the lower 48 CONUS in the next 10 days, especialle east of the Rockies.

If this pattern continues, we will continue to get mainly dry and reinforcing cold fronts to dive down into the SE U.S. every two to three days, as we are currently experiencing. NOAA keeps the entire Eastern US including Florida significantly below average in their latest 6-10 day outlook, and their 14 day outlook up through the end of January.

6-10 day NOAA outlook




8-14 day NOAA outlook

[RL3AO]

Looks like the new few weeks want to stay cold for the eastern half of the nation. Maybe another polar v***** by the end of the month?

[SeGaBob]

Thanks for the replies.