Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

This all equates to a -WSI (wxman57 satisfaction index) and a +PWC

OMG that is an instant classic. New indices to track now, who will keep up with them?

That is so cool Ntxw. You rock sir.

[ronyan]

It seems the latest runs off the Gas have backed away from the idea of an extreme cold pattern. Meanwhile it's a beautiful day here in SE TX and dry. Humidity is around 20%, can't remember the last time I saw a reading that low here.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose's forecast updated at 11:30am today (Friday). A ray of hope. Can't happen soon enough IMO!

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

"Today’s extended model data indicates the upper ridge along the West Coast will begin to break down next weekend, allowing for the development of a Pacific wind flow into Texas. This should lead to milder temperatures the week of the 27th. The long-range models indicate a Pacific storm system will track across Texas around the 30th, possibly causing scattered showers and thunderstorms."

[wxman57]

What's this about a wxman57 satisfaction/discomfort index? I was working with NOAA to come up with that U.S. forecast map of temps being above normal down south. Like it?

I'm still not seeing any extreme cold with the next outbreak in 10-12 days. It's still outside the realm of the operational EC or Canadian runs. GFS is still predicting some rather cold temps in Texas, though not record-breaking (-WSI at least). Note that the GFS is indicating a rather shallow layer of cold air, particularly south of Dallas where 850mb temps are forecast to be well above zero (freezing rain vs. snow). Closer call in Dallas as far as precip type.

Of course, this assumes that the 12-day GFS is correct as far as temps at the surface and aloft as well as precip potential, and that's a BIG assumption. Here are a couple of meteograms from the 12Z GFS. At least the cold weather is only for a couple of days mid-week. Weekends are in the 60s on either side of the cold - good enough for biking.

[gatorcane]

Yep latest 12Z GFS seems to have quieted the cold-weather folks as it shows the trough over the eastern part of the United states with ridging in the West out all the way through the whole 16 day run with some minor fluctuations inbetween. That would bring some cold temps into Texas but not record-breaking. The real cold stuff looks to stay in the Great Lakes / Midwest area and Northeast U.S. as Wxman57 has been saying for the past week or so now

[Texas Snowman]

So we caution against trusting long range models when they show cold. And then embrace the same models and trust them in the long range when they don't show cold.

Huh. How about that.

[Stormcenter]

Long range model runs in Winter time are similar to the ones during hurricane season that show a cat.5 storm hitting New Orleans every few weeks. IMO

[wxman57]

So we caution against trusting long range models when they show cold. And then embrace the same models and trust them in the long range when they don't show cold.

Huh. How about that.

Correct. I only trust them when they show hot weather 2 weeks out.

[Portastorm]

So we caution against trusting long range models when they show cold. And then embrace the same models and trust them in the long range when they don't show cold.

Huh. How about that.

Correct. I only trust them when they show hot weather 2 weeks out.

At least our Heat Miser is honest. We have to give him at least that much.

Meanwhile, the Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC will be working hard this weekend on some new weather maps. Graphical displays designed to bring joy into the hearts of winter weather lovers in Texas and despair to all heat-loving warm mongerers.

[TexasStorm]

NWS Ft. Worth quote:

"STILL THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF NORTH TEXAS."

Sounds like this is a +WSI

[wxman57]

My favorite part about the 12Z ECMWF esembles is the above normal 850mb temps from Texas north through western Canada, Alaska and northward from days 8-15. Below normal pressures across Texas for the period that the GFS has that cold air reaching Texas (26th-27th). We shall see...

[Texas Snowman]

Will the southern plains be involved? Hope so.

@BigJoeBastardi: This could turn out to be the Coldest 16 days at this time of the year plains eastward since the late 70s. On with
@sullivanradio at 5:30.

[wxman57]

Will the southern plains be involved? Hope so.

@BigJoeBastardi: This could turn out to be the Coldest 16 days at this time of the year plains eastward since the late 70s. On with
@sullivanradio at 5:30.

I believe he means the Northern Plains (Dakotas) eastward. We'll be "involved" but only grazed by the cold in TX/OK.

[TheProfessor]

That 18:00 Gfs is weird. near the end of the run it has the ridge in the east and the cold air in the west. hopefully that will push towards Texas.

[Ntxw]

What's this about a wxman57 satisfaction/discomfort index?

It's a highly accurate index based on your moods and posting patterns. A +WSI your posts are frequent and you control the weather with heat abound thus you are satisfied. A -WSI your posts are infrequent and we control the weather (cold mongerers) leading to your discontent frozen on your couch with unlimited use of heated blankets.

[WeatherGuesser]

Washington Post discussion for the northeast. Colder than normal for a longer period of time, but not AS cold at the last round. No extreme temps:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _local_pop

[Ntxw]

Posted this in the deep south thread, gotta make sure I post it here too in the home thread!

Time for a fun post here! Lately I have noticed the January 1961 analog pop up especially on the CPC super ensemble.



500mb 1961



Temperatures



Definitely deep freeze for the eastern CONUS if that happened. Important key is the retrograding ridge and if it makes it to the pole and be strongest in Alaska/Beaufort Sea. If it doesn't and just fades then a lesser scenario will be likely but if it does, look out.

[orangeblood]

Well it appears the ridge axis will end up hugging the coast of British Columbia forcing most of the cold air off to the northeast. It would be a much different story if that axis was a bit further west up through Alaska. Wxman57, you won this battle but the war is far from over!!!

[Texas Snowman]

What's this about a wxman57 satisfaction/discomfort index?

It's a highly accurate index based on your moods and posting patterns. A +WSI your posts are frequent and you control the weather with heat abound thus you are satisfied. A -WSI your posts are infrequent and we control the weather (cold mongerers) leading to your discontent frozen on your couch with unlimited use of heated blankets.

By golly, I think you're right. Our antagonist on this thread does have a tendency to gloat mockingly when it's bike riding weather. And disappear when it's not.

Oh to see another Feb. 1899 event with Wxman57 around!

[Brent]

Hey wxman57, do you have access to those GFS temperature charts outside of Texas? Say in AL or GA? There's talk of it possibly being colder than Jan 6-8th here(which was the coldest since 1996 here)