Texas Winter 2013-2014

[MGC]

I was in Naples Italy the winter of 77-78. It was cold there too. Mount Vesuvius was capped in snow most of the winter. Bring on the heat 57!!!!! Texas and states to her east have had enough winter. Time for an east coast ridge.......MGC

[Brent]

KANB Please

You might not like what you see, unless you like non-freezing weather. I have wrestled the global thermostat away from the cold-mongerers. So much for that Arctic blast toward the end of the month. Cold air will be centered over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and New England. We won't get much at all here. I'm still thinking maybe the 2nd week of February, but there is one big problem - no cold air in western and NW Canada. Warmer than normal air there, in fact. Hard to get very cold in Texas with above-normal temps in western Canada.

Here are 3 meteograms, one for Anniston, AL, one for Houston and one for Dallas area:

Um wow. I'm pretty shocked at the flip the GFS has made. There was NWS talk(not just board hyperbole) about colder air than Jan 6-8th here around Jan 27/28 and that shows 60s lol

Well thanks for the maps anyway.

[TheProfessor]

I was in Naples Italy the winter of 77-78. It was cold there too. Mount Vesuvius was capped in snow most of the winter. Bring on the heat 57!!!!! Texas and states to her east have had enough winter. Time for an east coast ridge.......MGC

No! Don't encourage him! I've had enough of his heat!

I want snow! North Texas hash't had a really good snow storm in a while. (6+ inches)

P.S wxman57, maybe people wouldn't dislike your heat so much if you could at least bring some rain with it.

[Ntxw]

Well the euro sure looks interesting for next weekend. Little storm we've been ignoring diving from pac NW that models either shear or stalls in sw comes out and according to ryan maue's wxbell maps has some -sn for east TX

[TheProfessor]

Well the euro sure looks interesting for next weekend. Little storm we've been ignoring diving from pac NW that models either shear or stalls in sw comes out and according to ryan maue's has some -sn for east TX

What part of east Texas? I-35 and east? or even further east?

[Ntxw]

Well the euro sure looks interesting for next weekend. Little storm we've been ignoring diving from pac NW that models either shear or stalls in sw comes out and according to ryan maue's has some -sn for east TX

What part of east Texas? I-35 and east? or even further east?

Core is Tx/La border south of Tyler and N/NE of Houston. I 35 is less than an inch but this is the only run of it's kind. Models have behaved differently with this system and little continuity.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting little short wave suggested by the 00Z Euro and the 00Z/06Z GFS late this coming week dropping down the back side of the big Eastern trough and arriving after a glancing Arctic front passes Texas/Louisiana on Thursday with 1048mb Arctic High just to our N. The guidance has been slowly shifting the colder air W and the operational guidance is suggesting over running precip as a Coastal trough develops, some of it of the wintry nature developing this coming Friday into Saturday. Temperatures may struggle to make it out of the low to mid 30's for highs if the guidance is correct.

[Texas Snowman]

Wait, anybody hear that meteogram coming?

[Portastorm]

Wxman57, please pick up the blue phone ... wxman57, you have a call on the blue phone!




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[wxman57]

Oh, I don't know if I can survive the brutally cold temps next Friday/Saturday. Upper 20s in both Houston and Dallas then right back up into the 60s. No precip in Dallas, light precip along the front in Houston. Better go wrap those pipes and prepare for this record cold Arctic outbreak.

[wxman57]

Thinking back to the 1970s, I was in Lafayette, LA for the winter of 76-77 then moved to College Station for 77-78. I do remember one year at A&M with a big ice storm. And I remember staying off campus in 78 or 79 in a little poorly-insulated house. When I got back from Christmas break between semesters the toilet water was frozen in that house.

[Portastorm]

Ha, ha ... nice recovery, sir. However you did say ... and I quote:

It's getting awfully quiet around here. That's generally good news for me. Don't tell me the GFS has backed off on the cold air push into Texas and now agrees with the Euro. Here's to a ++WSI in the coming weeks...

No, I'm not going tell you that. I'm going to tell you the GFS is back with cold air and much sooner than most of us realized! Assuming the overnight changes in the GFS guidance are accurate, a cold drizzle in Houston with mid 30s certainly won't yield a ++WSI. With promises of ice and/or snowfall in parts of west, central, and north Texas -- however -- the PWC index will rise to ++PWC!

[wxman57]

00Z Euro has warmer temps across central to SE TX Fri/Sat with precip ending before temps drop to freezing.

[KatDaddy]

I was hoping for no more cold weather but having been watching the models the last day or two. I guess I better enjoy the nice some what warm weather today.

[Texas Snowman]

Ummm, KatDaddy, this is a winter weather thread. Us cold mongers will look for cold and snow all the way into spring!

Not to mention a severely tanking --WSI.

[Snowman67]

Oh, I don't know if I can survive the brutally cold temps next Friday/Saturday. Upper 20s in both Houston and Dallas then right back up into the 60s. No precip in Dallas, light precip along the front in Houston. Better go wrap those pipes and prepare for this record cold Arctic outbreak.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6zjan19.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs6zjan19.gif

Wxman - quick question on the meteograms. If you are doing an extended model run that shows the temps in 12hr intervals, and say it is a runtime that will graph the 12AM and 12PM, does the graph not show how low the temp gets say at 6am? On the 0-192 hr I can see the temps at 3hr intervals, but on the extended only at 12hr, so if I have a 12AM/12PM interval, I don't see how high the temp would be say at 3pm or how low at 6am. Thanks in advance for the explanations.

[KatDaddy]

Yeah yeah Texas Snowman I know the protocol. Just trying to support WXman57. If we must have more cold weather which we are likely to then I will root for a SE TX snow. I would be happy with a light dusting if I must endure more cold.

[Ntxw]

This little feature has been getting more interesting after the overnight guidance. The 12zGFS looks like this.



If it is stronger and does not camp out in the SW coming out as a whole piece we have ourselves a little fun. And it's not 300+ hours out it's about 5 days. It's one of those El Nino-like lows that drags cold air back from the east (Jan 7-10, 2011). If the 12z Euro continues to latch on to this idea, a lot of activity will kick up.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS is on-board in the cold temps coming in from the east. They have a graphic showing the setup for later this week. Now we just need this system to play along with some precip.

[TheProfessor]

Exactly what i was thinking.