Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ravyrn]

Does any one have the statistics on the 18:00 GFS? It looks like it is showing all snow instead of ice on the wundermap. (I was looking around DFW airport.)

Still too far out, so take it with a grain of salt. This run it seems to have significantly less precipitation for the metroplex. However, the 18Z does have more favorable temps for rain changing over to snow as opposed to the 12Z which would have been sleet/freezing rain. Also Wxman57, just noticed when I use the selection for Dallas on this site that my meteograms were always different than yours. The coords they have for Dallas on the city scrollbox is actually well SE of the metroplex between Ennis and Kaufman. That's pretty significantly off, I wonder why their cords for Dallas are so far off at 32.46N 96.47W?

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[ravyrn]

Alrighty then...I just ran the stat method for the upcoming week, and it has not changed very much from its outlook from the past several days other than lower the temperatures a little bit for Thursday and Friday. The spotty showers - with best chances across the southern half of north Texas - still appear to form while temperatures are well above freezing, so the stat method insists that the threat of ice and snow remains very low. Unfortunately, it also continues to insist that rain amounts will be insignificant and will have zero impact on area lakes and zero impact on the drought status.

So what caused the red flags to be raised earlier today? The American Model is going for a fairly widespread ice and snowstorm for ALL of north Texas Thursday night and all day Friday! When I saw this, I had to do a double- and triple-take! Nothing like this was even remotely suggested in the stat method. Did I mess up the math?!? What was up???

So I re-ran the SM with the latest data in order to re-evaluate the chances for winter precipitation. Bottom line: the SM simply rejects the ice and snow solution from the American Model. So for now, I will stay the steady course and not buy into its Icemageddon forecast at this time

Steve isn't biting. I think he's been sipping some of the Wxman57 koolaid.

[Ntxw]

NAM doesn't quite go as far yet to the time we want but it's interesting it has a 1050+mb Arctic high plunging south from the northern plains, clearly no model showed anything close like this last week and now they all are. I think I'll just dub 2013-2014 year of the big highs, this will be the 4th big one since Thanksgiving week. We go years without seeing a 1050+ into the conus. Interesting that the orientation of the high isn't favorable to drive the coldest air to Texas but it does allow easterly/se flow ahead of the front which is good if you want to kick precip into the dome of cold air with a shortwave diving down on the back side.

[somethingfunny]

This line from FWD deserves all the love in the world:

RIGHT NOW WE
WOULD ESTIMATE BASED ON ALL MODEL FORECASTS THERE IS ABOUT A 1 IN
5 CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIP IN OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THE PUBLIC RESPONSE TO A MERE MENTION OF A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIP ON DAY 5 SEEMS TO IGNORE THE
FACT THAT IT MEANS THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF NOTHING
OCCURRING.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS says Houston we have a problem

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Late Thursday Night...Central to East Texas fun!

[stormlover2013]

Keeps getting more and more interesting!!

[Rgv20]

The forecast for Deep South Texas from 12z to 0zGFS for Friday Morning went from mid to upper 60s to the upper 30s!

Edit: According to the 0zGFS forecast highs for my area Friday will be in the low 40s! Plenty of time for the temperatures to trend down or UP as wxman57 would like to say lol

[Texas Snowman]

I realize Joe B isn't saying "Look out below!" for the great state of Texas.

But I like the fact we're talking winter weather chances here, even if they are uncertain.

Makes me feel like saying "I'll take "Here Comes the Meteogram" for the win! Or at least a tie!

---

@BigJoeBastardi: 3 Major shots next 10 days, last one is the true arctic attacker similar to early Jan. Comes over the top from Siberia

[WeatherNewbie]

This line from FWD deserves all the love in the world:

RIGHT NOW WE
WOULD ESTIMATE BASED ON ALL MODEL FORECASTS THERE IS ABOUT A 1 IN
5 CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIP IN OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THE PUBLIC RESPONSE TO A MERE MENTION OF A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIP ON DAY 5 SEEMS TO IGNORE THE
FACT THAT IT MEANS THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF NOTHING
OCCURRING.

Yep. I was with some friends this evening and I was telling them about the potential issues for the end of this week. They asked why the local news wasn't saying anything. I read them that excerpt verbatim.

[ronyan]

0zGFS Late Thursday Night...Central to East Texas fun!

Is the high centered a little farther W on the 0z? 1043+ mb entering TX is a pretty serious hp system. It will be interesting to see what the Euro shows.

[Portastorm]

Surprised no one has quoted JB's tweet from this evening about the GFS showing ice down to the I-10 corridor in Texas!

[TheProfessor]

Wait so no winter precip for North Texas now?

Edit: Wow, Thats a terrible run for me.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

0z GFS says Houston we have a problem

Someone check with IAH and see if a certain Heat Miser booked a last minute trip to the Fiji.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ntxw

Just copied, blew up, and framed that map I'm sure by tomorrow will be showing dry and heat for the same time period but hey its nice to look at

[vbhoutex]

0z GFS says Houston we have a problem

http://i44.tinypic.com/vio66a.gif

Someone check with IAH and see if a certain Heat Miser booked a last minute trip to the Fiji.

LOL!! Actually he is heading East to FL trying to throw us off.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Surprised no one has quoted JB's tweet from this evening about the GFS showing ice down to the I-10 corridor in Texas!

Not that I really ever believe or follow what he says but since I am in such a good mood at the moment thanks to the gfs, what did he say?

[vbhoutex]

0z GFS says Houston we have a problem

http://i44.tinypic.com/vio66a.gif

Indeed if the GFS happens we will indeed have a major problem because it shows 10-12 hours of freezing precip.!! Still far enough out to not worry yet, but close enough to really raise my interest to a much higher level.

[gpsnowman]

Good morning weather people. Well, according to Steve Mccaulley, the overnight GFS backed off any winter precip late this week. Maybe the early morning models will bring it back!! We can hope!!!
It does look like we are in for a couple of cold days though. Fox 4 has a low of 23 for Friday morning. Maybe the precip is being underdone. I sure would love to see some snow this winter.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning weather people. Well, according to Steve Mccaulley, the overnight GFS backed off any winter precip late this week. Maybe the early morning models will bring it back!! We can hope!!!
It does look like we are in for a couple of cold days though. Fox 4 has a low of 23 for Friday morning. Maybe the precip is being underdone. I sure would love to see some snow this winter.

Actually odds have increased across the Southern half of Texas into SW Louisiana, so while chances have decreased for N Texas, as of this morning the QPF totals have increased for Thursday into early Saturday and chatter from NWS Houston/Galveston and NWS Lake Charles is very different than what NWS Ft Worth/Dallas may expect. The Arctic front is a bit faster arriving Wednesday night across N Texas and stalling across Coastal Texas/Louisiana by mid day Thursday. There still remains some temperature profile differences at the surface with the GFS/Euro solutions, but icy weather is a possibility mainly N of I-10 and perhaps into Metro Houston extending E into Beaumont and Lake Charles.