Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Still too far out, so take it with a grain of salt. This run it seems to have significantly less precipitation for the metroplex. However, the 18Z does have more favorable temps for rain changing over to snow as opposed to the 12Z which would have been sleet/freezing rain. Also Wxman57, just noticed when I use the selection for Dallas on this site that my meteograms were always different than yours. The coords they have for Dallas on the city scrollbox is actually well SE of the metroplex between Ennis and Kaufman. That's pretty significantly off, I wonder why their cords for Dallas are so far off at 32.46N 96.47W?

I use DFW for Dallas-Ft. Worth plots. The airport is in between the two cities.

[Ntxw]

The models have been going stronger with HP and cold air push thus decreasing precip chances for the I-20 corridor and increasing frozen precip for I-10 corridor. Both Euro and GFS have come together and looks fairly identical with light precip in S, SE Tx and LA.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Icemageddon in the HOU!

[Rgv20]

9 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members (Including the ECMWF Control Run) are showing a trace of Snow for the McAllen area for Friday Morning and at least 1 of the members is showing 2'' of snow! 6zGFS also came in a bit colder for Friday with highs in the mid to upper 30s!

[Ntxw]

12z Nam has a 1053+mb high going south from the n plains. This air mass isn't as cold as early Jan with a similar size high but what is more amazing than the precip chances is that the models were absolutely clueless. I don't recall any guidance last week showing anomalous high mslp in the Conus. In fact GFS and company were blowtorching the country for this week at one point (the winter cancels).

[Portastorm]

9 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members (Including the ECMWF Control Run) are showing a trace of Snow for the McAllen area for Friday Morning and at least 1 of the members is showing 2'' of snow! 6zGFS also came in a bit colder for Friday with highs in the mid to upper 30s!

That's very curious, especially considering how P-types would be marginal much further north per the guidance. If the air column is progged to be that cold that far south, then this airmass is much deeper than what the models have been suggesting.

[wxman57]

12z Nam has a 1053+mb high going south from the n plains. This air mass isn't as cold as early Jan with a similar size high but what is more amazing than the precip chances is that the models were absolutely clueless. I don't recall any guidance last week showing anomalous high mlsp in the Conus. In fact GFS and company were blowtorching the country for this week at one point (the winter cancels).

I'm looking at some of my saved meteograms for Houston for a week ago and they were indicating mid to upper 20s in Houston, but on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, not Friday. GFS had 60s in Houston for this coming Friday a week ago.

Houston could see some light freezing rain on Friday morning. I'll be in New Orleans on Friday. Won't return to Houston until Friday evening.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

12z Nam has a 1053+mb high going south from the n plains. This air mass isn't as cold as early Jan with a similar size high but what is more amazing than the precip chances is that the models were absolutely clueless. I don't recall any guidance last week showing anomalous high mslp in the Conus. In fact GFS and company were blowtorching the country for this week at one point (the winter cancels).

Ah yes, WXman57 has been caught manipulating the GFS. Here is proof....

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

9 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members (Including the ECMWF Control Run) are showing a trace of Snow for the McAllen area for Friday Morning and at least 1 of the members is showing 2'' of snow! 6zGFS also came in a bit colder for Friday with highs in the mid to upper 30s!

So do we get in with the fun in the Corpus area? BTW, it will be 10 years ago this Christmas we experienced our snow miracle. We've had more snow in Corpus/Victoria in the last 15 years than Austin and Houston!

[wxman57]

So do we get in with the fun in the Corpus area? BTW, it will be 10 years ago this Christmas we experienced our snow miracle. We've had more snow in Corpus/Victoria in the last 15 years than Austin and Houston!

You may get to enjoy some cold rain on Friday morning.

[Portastorm]

The key appears to be Heat Miser's actual presence in the area. You see, he's leaving town later this week and look what happens? Boom ... possible wintry precip threat even as far south as H-town. Maybe we should all band together and send him on a nice, long vacation somewhere!

[Kennethb]

Yes, but he seems to be headed here to Louisiana to melt any hopes we have here!!!

[TheProfessor]

These model runs are terrible for dfw.

[wxman57]

Yes, but he seems to be headed here to Louisiana to melt any hopes we have here!!!

I'll be heading to Baton rouge on Friday morning to meet with a client there.

BTW, I've always wanted to go to Tahiti...

[Portastorm]

Yes, but he seems to be headed here to Louisiana to melt any hopes we have here!!!

I'm sorry for my Louisiana friends. Maybe we could direct him, last second, on a ski trip to the Sierras or something. Whaddya say, wxman57?! And oh, by the way, you can leave the keys to the weather control room with me. I'll take good care of them!

[Rgv20]

So do we get in with the fun in the Corpus area? BTW, it will be 10 years ago this Christmas we experienced our snow miracle. We've had more snow in Corpus/Victoria in the last 15 years than Austin and Houston!

For the Corpus area 11 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members are showing wintery precipitation for Friday Morning.

For my friend Porta 36 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members are showing snow...Watch out for Lucy!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'll be in New Orleans on Friday. Won't return to Houston until Friday evening.

Well as long as you don't bring your heat and misery to se LA you can stop by and have some beers with me on your way to baton rouge. Hell, Bring us some actual winter weather and I will pick you up in NO and bring you out for some winter trout and red fishing

[Lagreeneyes03]

These model runs are terrible for dfw.

Downright depressing and unfair actually.

[Portastorm]

So do we get in with the fun in the Corpus area? BTW, it will be 10 years ago this Christmas we experienced our snow miracle. We've had more snow in Corpus/Victoria in the last 15 years than Austin and Houston!

For the Corpus area 11 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members are showing wintery precipitation for Friday Morning.

For my friend Porta 36 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members are showing snow...Watch out for Lucy!!

Let me get my snow blower and galoshes ready!

Thanks for posting the info. Please do keep us posted as we near the possible event. It's always interesting to me to see how ensemble members depictions end up matching (or not) the real weather.

[Ntxw]

These model runs are terrible for dfw.

Downright depressing and unfair actually.

You guys shouldn't feel so bad, despite what many think we have posters in Texas not in north TX that don't see a threat often. It's been unfair to them for years and years. It's not set in stone there will be vorticity overhead so flurries or light snow or a stronger shortwave is still possible. If not there will be more chances likely even better heading into the coming weeks. I hope the southern half of Texas cashes in this weekend!