Texas Winter 2013-2014

#3981 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:47 am

Geez, the 12z GFS is even colder than previous runs. Much of central, south, and southeast Texas don't appear to get above the mid 30s all day Friday ... and most areas appear to stay at or below freezing during the day.

If I'm not mistaken this makes three consecutive runs where the GFS op run has trended colder with progged surface temps. It won't take much precip at all with those temps to create traffic/societal chaos in this part of the state.

Stormnut · #3982 Postby **Stormnut** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:48 am

Our 2008 surprise didnt show up on models and we got 6-7" in Denham so you never know

#3983 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:55 am

Portastorm wrote:Geez, the 12z GFS is even colder than previous runs. Much of central, south, and southeast Texas don't appear to get above the mid 30s all day Friday ... and most areas appear to stay at or below freezing during the day.

If I'm not mistaken this makes three consecutive runs where the GFS op run has trended colder with progged surface temps. It won't take much precip at all with those temps to create traffic/societal chaos in this part of the state.

12Z GFS is 3 deg warmer than the 00Z or 6Z for Houston for Fri/Sat. And the heavier precip shifts from Friday morning to Saturday. Big run-to-run changes = low confidence.

stormlover2013 · #3984 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:56 am

Will keep changing!!!

#3985 Postby **ronyan** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:58 am

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Geez, the 12z GFS is even colder than previous runs. Much of central, south, and southeast Texas don't appear to get above the mid 30s all day Friday ... and most areas appear to stay at or below freezing during the day.

If I'm not mistaken this makes three consecutive runs where the GFS op run has trended colder with progged surface temps. It won't take much precip at all with those temps to create traffic/societal chaos in this part of the state.

12Z GFS is 3 deg warmer than the 00Z or 6Z for Houston for Fri/Sat. And the heavier precip shifts from Friday morning to Saturday. Big run-to-run changes = low confidence.

The high temps are colder for Friday and Saturday...only reaching 34 at IAH Friday. Looks like a tricky forecast to be sure.

#3986 Postby **Rgv20** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:01 pm

Looks like Friday is going to be a Raw Rainy Cold Day for Deep South Texas with highs in the mid to upper 30s and wind chills in the mid to upper 20s! :cold:

#3987 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Geez, the 12z GFS is even colder than previous runs. Much of central, south, and southeast Texas don't appear to get above the mid 30s all day Friday ... and most areas appear to stay at or below freezing during the day.

If I'm not mistaken this makes three consecutive runs where the GFS op run has trended colder with progged surface temps. It won't take much precip at all with those temps to create traffic/societal chaos in this part of the state.

12Z GFS is 3 deg warmer than the 00Z or 6Z for Houston for Fri/Sat. And the heavier precip shifts from Friday morning to Saturday. Big run-to-run changes = low confidence.

Uh sorry, but I'm going to have to respectfully disagree when it comes to Austin. The 12z GFS has temps holding in the upper 20s most of the day here. The 6z was a bit warmer and the 0z was close to the 6z. I would hardly call that big changes.

But it's ok, I know you're working hard to try and find some warmth and poo-poo the winter fun ahead. I understand. :wink:

#3988 Postby **TheProfessor** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:10 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Looks like Friday is going to be a Raw Rainy Cold Day for Deep South Texas with highs in the mid to upper 30s and wind chills in the mid to upper 20s!

At least you get rain!

#3989 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:12 pm

Portastorm wrote:Uh sorry, but I'm going to have to respectfully disagree when it comes to Austin. The 12z GFS has temps holding in the upper 20s most of the day here. The 6z was a bit warmer and the 0z was close to the 6z. I would hardly call that big changes.

But it's ok, I know you're working hard to try and find some warmth and poo-poo the winter fun ahead. I understand.

I wasn't looking at Austin's temps. Just Houston. GFS is definitely not as cold for Houston in the 12Z run.

#3990 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Uh sorry, but I'm going to have to respectfully disagree when it comes to Austin. The 12z GFS has temps holding in the upper 20s most of the day here. The 6z was a bit warmer and the 0z was close to the 6z. I would hardly call that big changes.

But it's ok, I know you're working hard to try and find some warmth and poo-poo the winter fun ahead. I understand.

I wasn't looking at Austin's temps. Just Houston. GFS is definitely not as cold for Houston in the 12Z run.

Well, technically you're kinda right ... the 6z GFS numbers for Austin (KATT) are warmer than the 0z but the 12z seems to trump them all in terms of cold. So my statement of "trending" colder wasn't entirely accurate. :wink:

0z GFS
6 am Friday – 26
12 noon – 30
3 pm – 34

6z GFS
6 am – 28
12 noon – 32
3 pm – 36

12z GFS
6 am – 29
12 noon – 28
3 pm – 30

DougNTexas · #3991 Postby **DougNTexas** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:23 pm

So Tyler/Longview is out of the snow?

#3992 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:47 pm

for now yes. Looks like everyone north of about an ATX line.

CYCLONE MIKE · #3993 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:55 pm

Well I'm too worried. They are going to flip flop around then wouldnt be surprsed to see then come back around to the original runs of all of south tx and northern gulf getting in on some action.This is like watching the models try and figure out where in the gulf a hurricane will hit five days out. By tonight they might show nothing for everybody then tomorrow show an all out blizzard along the gulf coast. I could only wish :lol:

#3994 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:59 pm

I hope Baton Rouge can get it on the fun. At least the potential is there. We rarely have it showing in the models 5 days out. Not even 2 days out! Models just don't do well with winter events down here.

#3995 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:01 pm

Storm doesn't come ashore until Wednesday, still a lot of changes possible so don't get too fixed on particular runs yet.

#3996 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:04 pm

Ntxw wrote:Storm doesn't come ashore until Wednesday, still a lot of changes possible so don't get too fixed on particular runs yet.

Words of wisdom sir. Words of wisdom

#3997 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:44 pm

Wxman57 earlier was talking about a lack of consistency with the GFS ... I see the same problem with the Euro. The 12z run looks warmer to me than the 0z run. Some rather large discrepancies in the 850mb temps.

The individual ensemble members of the 12z GFS are actually fairly consistent temperature-wise out at 96 hours. The developing precip shield and its intensity is a bit more unstable from member to member.

I think it's safe to say that we can't say for sure what will happen Friday-Saturday! :lol:

But we can say that there are some strong signals that wintry precip may impact portions of Texas south of a San Angelo to Austin to College Station line.

#3998 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:49 pm

Unfortunately, it looks like North Texas will extremely dry for the next 7-10 days. Rain, please, and lots of it.

#3999 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:54 pm

Noticed that the GFS MOS forecast for Houston is about 4-6 degrees colder than the GFS 2m raw temps in the meteograms I plotted. Still too much inconsistency to be confident about who might get freezing/frozen precip, when and how much. There may not be much model agreement until Wed/Thu.

#4000 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:58 pm

Look, I wil settle for just the THREAT of freezing precip. If it is a threat Thursday night into Friday morning then school may be canceled (I am a teacher). That will do for me. lol

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