Texas Winter 2013-2014

CYCLONE MIKE · #4001 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:59 pm

High

I have a feeling if we want to see ice or whatever we probably will have to revert to project ice part two. :lol:

But could end up being warmer as well so who knows.

#4002 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:09 pm

What a great line from the just-issued afternoon AFD out of NWSFO Brownsville:

IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE BARRELING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA...DOWN THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE...MOVING
EFFORTLESSLY THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LIKE A HOT KNIFE THROUGH BUTTER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Love it!

#4003 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:14 pm

Meanwhile, no mention of the front in the Houston AFD and certainly no mention of a chance of freezing/frozen precip in the local area forecast. Forecasting mid 30s Friday for the low and lower 30s Saturday (but no precip Saturday). I think they'll be modifying their temps downward and precip upward in days to come.

#4004 Postby **cigtyme** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:24 pm

On my ride home from lunch, WWL radio in New Orleans, mentioned a chance of frozen precipitation with the front this Friday!! Said snow is low 20-30% chance. So I know this is a Texas thread, but it is the one I watch, so Heat Miser stay out of La. JK man

:cold:

TeamPlayersBlue · #4005 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:27 pm

WEll well well, back in town from Portas side of the state. I like what im seeing, lets also remember that the GFS isnt very good with shallow air. I have only read the boards and was just brought to my attention about this 'storm' an hour ago through Steves FB. Will do my homework then give my opinion.

#4006 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:Meanwhile, no mention of the front in the Houston AFD and certainly no mention of a chance of freezing/frozen precip in the local area forecast. Forecasting mid 30s Friday for the low and lower 30s Saturday (but no precip Saturday). I think they'll be modifying their temps downward and precip upward in days to come.

The AFD has not been issued and my point and click just updated to a 50% chance of rain and 34F for Thursday night/early Friday...

weatherdude1108 · #4007 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:33 pm

All I know is my thermometer currently reads 81.0 degrees (at 2:30pm) :grr:

#4008 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:34 pm

cigtyme wrote:On my ride home from lunch, WWL radio in New Orleans, mentioned a chance of frozen precipitation with the front this Friday!! Said snow is low 20-30% chance. So I know this is a Texas thread, but it is the one I watch, so Heat Miser stay out of La. JK man

20-30% chance of snow in New Orleans Friday? I think whoever made that forecast needs to move the decimal point left a couple of places.

#4009 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:35 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:All I know is my thermometer currently reads 81.0 degrees (at 2:30pm)

Perfect January weather!

#4010 Postby **cigtyme** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:38 pm

WXman57, I think the weather lady meant that, there was a slight chance of frozen precip. If this slight chance occurs 20-30% chance its snow. So yes 20-30% chance of a slight chance is about .2 or .3%!!

#4011 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:52 pm

cigtyme wrote:WXman57, I think the weather lady meant that, there was a slight chance of frozen precip. If this slight chance occurs 20-30% chance its snow. So yes 20-30% chance of a slight chance is about .2 or .3%!!

I don't think you'll see any precip in New Orleans on Friday. Your best shot at any light precip appears to be on Saturday.

TeamPlayersBlue · #4012 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:54 pm

Ok, im kinda not 100% sold yet, but if its there tonight, with the 0z, i'll go all in. I think it will come in colder than expected too. Typically does. This could be a great Friday for us SE Tx folk

#4013 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:25 pm

I'd wait until the 12Z Thursday models come in to have much confidence in this event.

#4014 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:28 pm

I think it is too far away, still, to be sure of just when the precip may move in. Friday/Saturday is not much of a difference in timing 5 days out. They could mean very late Friday, as well.

#4015 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:43 pm

I sense a -WSI in the works!

#4016 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:45 pm

Ntxw wrote:I sense a -WSI in the works!

Perhaps, but we KNOW today is a +WSI day for sure! Up to 77 degrees here and lots of sunshine. A little cool, but still +WSI. Hopefully Friday/Saturday will be winter's last gasp in Houston...

HouTXmetro · #4017 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:46 pm

What is a WSI?

#4018 Postby **ThunderSleetDreams** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:56 pm

LOL, there is nothing "cool" about 77 degrees. You're crazy, man!

#4019 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:03 pm

Our local met on WBRZ just mentioned he was keeping an eye on things with some models showing interesting frozen precip potential thur/fri. As mentioned, that timing may well change if it happens at all.

#4020 Postby **ravyrn** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:05 pm

18Z NAM is in. It only goes out to 12am Thursday night, but it has both 850mb and surface temps below freezing here in Jacksonville. 850mb temps are actually colder than surface temps. No precip through the forecast period though.

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