Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ralph's Weather]

Anyone think that we could get a Gulf low out of this? What would cause this storm to die off while others spawn lows? If we can get a NW Gulf low we very well could see some unexpected results across the South with the cold air in place.

[gboudx]

What is a WSI?

Wxman57 Satisfaction Index

[Portastorm]

What is a WSI?

It's one of the new winter teleconnection indices we track ... based on how happy (or unhappy) wxman57 is with the weather.

A -WSI = +PWC

Today has definitely been a ++WSI kind of day here in Austin. Car thermo read 82 degrees just a bit ago. Feels like spring. Too bad it's not going to last, huh?!

[HouTXmetro]

What is a WSI?

It's one of the new winter teleconnection indices we track ... based on how happy (or unhappy) wxman57 is with the weather.

A -WSI = +PWC

Today has definitely been a ++WSI kind of day here in Austin. Car thermo read 82 degrees just a bit ago. Feels like spring. Too bad it's not going to last, huh?!

Thanks for explanation guys and gals... lol

[Portastorm]

Well, we're getting close enough to the late week event to use tools like the NAM. Noticed the 18z NAM starts breaking out frozen precip over south central Texas (San Antonio and the Hill Country) Thursday evening. But what's even more interesting to me is that the 15z SREF starts the frozen stuff late Thursday afternoon and appears to transition over to snow by Friday morning, at least looking at its precip type NCEP alogorithim.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_LIKELY__

[Stormnut]

Baton Rouge NWS forecast:

THURSDAY
NIGHT
Slight Chance Rain/Snow Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Rain/Snow
Low: 28 °F
FRIDAY

Slight Chance Snow Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Snow
High: 41 °F
FRIDAY
NIGHT
Partly Cloudy
Partly
Cloudy
Low: 31 °F

[ndale]

Since I am a novice with models is the 18z gfs still showing precip in central Tx expanding into north Tx. Do I see that right?

[Portastorm]

Since I am a novice with models is the 18z gfs still showing precip in central Tx expanding into north Tx. Do I see that right?

Hey, unless you see a blue tag ... we're all novices to one degree or another.

Yes, you are seeing it correctly. The 18z GFS is happy/happy/happy for North Texas as compared to the 12z run.

[TheProfessor]

The 18:00 GFS run is 100x better than the 12:00. Hopefully this is a start of a trend where North, Central, and South Texas all see wintery weather!

[ndale]

This quote from EWX forecast discussion:

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO ENDING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE HILL COUNTRY
THURSDAY EVENING INTO NIGHT TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon Update from Jeff:

Powerful arctic cold front will arrive after mid week with some potential for wintery precipitation.

It does not get much better than this in mid-January…current afternoon temperatures at 300pm range from 80 at Victoria to 76 at BUSH IAH and 79 at Brenham. As is usually the case when it gets this warm in January cold air is not far behind and this week will be no different.

Upper air pattern is currently undergoing amplification along the US west coast with large scale ridging building into Alaska and the downstream trough located over the Midwest into NE US. A shot of cold air will pass across the region tonight into Tuesday with highs on Tuesday running 15-20 degrees colder than today (55-60) versus (75-80). Will see gusty NW winds on Tuesday along with lower RH so fire danger will be elevated. Cold Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s across the region rebounding into the mid 60’s by afternoon with SSW winds.

Thursday-Friday:

Forecast challenges are plenty in this period as a strong arctic air mass plows down the plains into TX and an upper level storm system then moves across the state with the cold arctic dome in place bringing P-type questions into the forecast. Arctic boundary should plow southward on Wednesday and push off the TX coast on Thursday with little appearing to slow the boundary or prevent the cold air from penetrating southward. Latest model guidance appears to be trending colder with the front as is common with shallow and fast moving arctic boundaries. Temperatures will fall rapidly on Thursday with the passage of the boundary and onset of cold air advection off the plains. Highs near 60 prior to the front will fall into the 40’s by late afternoon under gusty NW winds…and then into the 30’s and possibly 20’s by Friday morning.

While the cold air is filtering southward and upper level trough will be approaching the state from the WSW which will help induce a coastal surface trough slinging moisture northward over the cold dome. There will be a battle as to how much moisture can work northward against the southward moving dry air and what will the temperatures profile look like if and when the northward moving moisture wins out and the air mass over the area is able to produce precipitation.

Current thinking is that moisture may be just enough along with favorable lift to produce some amount of precipitation when the air mass at the surface is at or below freezing. Current forecast soundings support a mixture of sleet and freezing rain. Of course the position of the 32F line at the surface becomes very critical is determining what surface impacts of falling sleet or rain would have. Below 32F would possibly result in some accumulation of ice (freezing rain) or sleet and above 32 would result in sleet melting or just plain rain. Current indications suggest most of the area except the immediate coast could be at or below 32F by Friday morning. Good news is that currently the precipitation amounts look fairly light (below .05 of an inch)…but as we saw back in early December even .01 of an inch of freezing drizzle can cause some big problems on bridges. Given thick cloud cover and cold air advection think temperatures will go nowhere on Friday with a very small range between lows and highs and most likely temperatures hovering in the low to mid 30’s all day.

As with all winter weather episodes in this area the uncertainty is large especially at this range and will probably not get much better until about 24-36 hours before the onset of the event (late Wednesday into Thursday AM).

GFS model brings more precipitation into the area on Saturday again with very cold surface temperatures in place especially in the morning however other guidance is not as wet and think the GFS may be overdoing the rainfall. Still looks cold with highs on Saturday possibly only in the 40’s if it stays cloudy….50’s if the sun is able to break through.

[MGC]

In the afternoon AFD, NWS New Orleans did include the "S" word......will have to wait and see.....MGC

[HouTXmetro]

Can someone please post the latest GFS run or provide a link por favor?

[Rgv20]

Local Newscast went with a high of 43 for Friday..

[dhweather]

Just remember, the 3800 hour GFS has a cat 5 in the gulf.


The only thing I'm certain of is we will see some freezes this week in DFW. As dry as the column has been lately, it's going to take a lot to get any kind of precip around here.

[TexasF6]

My local wx man said one model puts us below freezing FOR 30+ HOURS IN AUSTIN TEXAS WITH PRECIP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #TeamSnow #TeamPorta

[Tireman4]

Since I am a novice with models is the 18z gfs still showing precip in central Tx expanding into north Tx. Do I see that right?

Hey, unless you see a blue tag ... we're all novices to one degree or another.

Yes, you are seeing it correctly. The 18z GFS is happy/happy/happy for North Texas as compared to the 12z run.

Green is good with me. It is not easy being Green, but you wear it well Porta

[Wntrwthrguy]

I for one am just grateful to be talking about the possibility, however slight it might be, for austin to have the chance at some winter precip.

I hope models keep the possibility in there so we can get a press conference from Porta! Wouldn't be a true winter without at least one of those.

[Tireman4]

Very interesting....hummm...HGX Weather Forecast for Humble, Texas...

Thursday A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 53. Breezy.
Thursday Night A chance of rain before 1am, then a slight chance of sprinkles, freezing rain, and sleet between 1am and 5am, then a slight chance of freezing rain and sleet after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

[Ntxw]

I have to reiterate, this thing is still out in the Pacific ocean. The models do not have an understanding on where it's going to move and how strong it will be. On top of that there will be a northern stream energy that will mingle with the storm. What you see now possibly and most likely will change, the ensembles and models are too variable. And to add more into the confusion there is vorticity and "stuff" to the east of Hawaii and west of Baja and will play a role as well (or may not).