Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Actually Ports the Euro has been rather dry compared to the GFS (don't shoot the messenger) and most activity is deep south TX and coastal SE TX but temp profiles there on it are iffy. Root for the GFS.

Yep, but Euro still shows some light wintry mix, albeit brief. Heavier QPF to the south of AUS/SAT yes but moisture still there. See EWX discussion.

[Ntxw]

The EPO is dipping it low, very low. Shortly after our potentially wintry weekend it's likely another cold snap will follow. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if another big high pops up for next week, might as well right?

[Portastorm]

Interesting snowfall accumulation image from hour 87 of the 3z SREF. Suggests other model QPF forecasts are on crack. We shall see.



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[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Red Flag Warning has been issued for today for the western 2/3rds of SE TX

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be in place from early this morning to around mid afternoon. Overnight cold frontal passage has brought strong NW winds to the region this morning with gusts upwards of 35-45mph across the area. Favorable mixing of the low level wind field will be enhanced once the sun rises so expect strong winds to continue into the early afternoon hours. Dewpoints have already plunged into the mid 20’s and will likely fall into the 10’s this afternoon resulting in RH values between 10-20% across the region. Fine fuels are dried and killed from the recent hard freezes and overall top layer moisture is low as wetting rainfall has been lacking since late November and the recent air mass has been very dry. Any grass fire that may develop will likely burn quickly in the strong winds and dry fuels and extreme caution should be used with any outdoor flames today.

On to much bigger challenges….

Strong arctic cold front will barrel into the state late Wednesday and blast off the TX coast early Thursday with rapidly falling temperatures. Upstream air mass over Canada is pretty cold and suspect models may be a touch too warm with their expected temperatures Thursday and Friday at the moment…but do not expect a widespread hard freeze like we had early this month due to cloud cover.

Cold arctic air will be in place by late Thursday and a short wave trough will approach the area from the west Thursday night into Friday. This trough will induce moisture moving northward into the very cold air mass producing the potential for a mixture of winter precipitation. Expect surface temperatures to fall to near/below freezing over much of the area by late Thursday evening which is an important component when dealing with freezing/frozen precip in this area…typically this is the missing link. Given the intensity of this air mass do not think we will have much of a problem falling to and below freezing at the surface. Following that line of thinking one must then look at what the temperatures is doing above the surface throughout the entire air column to attempt to resolve P-type and amounts.

One thing that is striking to me this morning is the large amounts of dry air being shown on model guidance in the near surface to roughly 850mb level at the time when the model is showing precipitation falling…looks like a lot of mid and high level moisture will be present, but a very dry sub cloud layer which could evaporate much of the falling precipitation. Other interesting item is the cooling of the entire atmospheric profile at both College Station and IAH Friday morning possibly from the evaporation of the precipitation falling into the dry air helping to cool the air column…known as wet bulb cooling.

It is pretty pointless at this time frame to attempt to determine P-type across the region Thursday night into Friday morning. Cold see a mixture of all winter weather types from freezing rain to sleet and some snow (especially around College Station to Huntsville). Given the fairly strong 850mb flow out of the SSW I would not think this is a very favorable snow profile for the area. Sub freezing surface temperatures with a modest warm nose in the mid levels is more of a freezing rain and ice set up likely with sleet mixed in.

With all that said…the dry layer will have to be overcome and if it is not we will end up cloudy and very cold, but dry. Model generated QPF amounts are on the low side ranging from a trace to .20 of an inch of liquid precipitation which equates to varying amounts of frozen precipitation, but that in freezing rain would cause some major problems on overpasses and elevated surfaces.

[wxman57]

Just checked the Euro ensembles, deterministic and control runs and neither has freezing temps for north Houston this week. That's some Arctic blast. GFS MOS still has upper 20s for IAH and HOU. Post-frontal moisture looks quite limited, particularly across east and SE TX.

[Snowman67]

6z GFS has a little sleet from Victoria to the Hill Country and brief light snow west of SAT/AUS on Thursday night and that's about it.

Remember though Heat Miser, I believe you said something to the effect that you wouldn't trust the models until Thursday, so you still aren't out of the woods

[wxman57]

6z GFS has a little sleet from Victoria to the Hill Country and brief light snow west of SAT/AUS on Thursday night and that's about it.

Remember though Heat Miser, I believe you said something to the effect that you wouldn't trust the models until Thursday, so you still aren't out of the woods

That is true, but the trend is my friend.

[Snowman67]

6z GFS has a little sleet from Victoria to the Hill Country and brief light snow west of SAT/AUS on Thursday night and that's about it.

Remember though Heat Miser, I believe you said something to the effect that you wouldn't trust the models until Thursday, so you still aren't out of the woods

That is true, but the trend is my friend.

True, but just yesterday the trend was our friend. I've been around long enough to see these forecasts bust big time both ways.

[Texas Snowman]

6z GFS has a little sleet from Victoria to the Hill Country and brief light snow west of SAT/AUS on Thursday night and that's about it.

Remember though Heat Miser, I believe you said something to the effect that you wouldn't trust the models until Thursday, so you still aren't out of the woods

That is true, but the trend is my friend.

That's good. Because the trend is the only friend you have on the Texas Winter 2013-14 thread.

[Ntxw]

This winter has emboldened wxman57! He learned to adjust thanks to the cold blasts with heated blankets and coats and only historic cold shakes him now. He no longer seems to fear below 60F, perhaps we should cook up something to change the playing field!

[stormlover2013]

its still only Tuesday, I am sure models runs won't get a good grip till thurs.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Trend? One model run does not constitute a trend.

I'm in Conroe too... I'll be well below freezing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, i was looking at the lifting index which is predicted, seems to have 'alot' of lif tin the atmosphere where the front comes in, as that mainly the cold air displacing the warm air above it? We have had snow events like that before iirc. Based on that alone. Not sure if this air is too shallow for that sort of situation though

[Ntxw]

Lets take the 12z nam and run with it. Snow, sleet, frz rain for everybody in Texas keep us all happy except maybe one.

[Cuda17]

HGX is showing a 40% chance of wintry mix Thursday night into Friday morning with a low around 27° here in Bellville. Meanwhile... I found the perfect smilie for Portastorm and wxman57 -->

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Are there any good analogs for this 'event'?

[Tireman4]

Lets take the 12z nam and run with it. Snow, sleet, frz rain for everybody in Texas keep us all happy except maybe one.

Ok works for me. I will take it. Woo Hoooo

[ThunderSleetDreams]

HGX is showing a 40% chance of wintry mix Thursday night into Friday morning with a low around 27° here in Bellville. Meanwhile... I found the perfect smilie for Portastorm and wxman57 -->

Beautiful.

We need a smilie where one smiley has an ice gun and one has a flame gun.

[Rgv20]

12zNAM keeps most of South Texas in the mid 30s on Friday!

[TheProfessor]

Lets take the 12z nam and run with it. Snow, sleet, frz rain for everybody in Texas keep us all happy except maybe one.

Could you put a map up?