Texas Winter 2013-2014

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM is considerably 'wetter' than the 06Z run. The 12Z NAM is also suggesting a bit stronger upper air disturbance and that old Coastal trough is back once again. The NAM also keep the precip going longer into Friday since it has slowed the progression of that upper air disturbance by about 6-12 hours. The Arctic front still arrives late Wednesday and makes it to the Coast By mid day Thursday and has a bit stronger 1044mb High pressure cell associated with the cold air.

[TheProfessor]

The 12Z NAM is considerably 'wetter' than the 06Z run. The 12Z NAM is also suggesting a bit stronger upper air disturbance and that old Coastal trough is back once again. The NAM also keep the precip going longer into Friday since it has slowed the progression of that upper air disturbance by about 6-12 hours. The Arctic front still arrives late Wednesday and makes it to the Coast By mid day Thursday and has a bit stronger 1044mb High pressure cell associated with the cold air.

Is this liquid or frozen precipitation?

[srainhoutx]

Is this liquid or frozen precipitation?

It's way too soon to worry about those 'finer' details' and particularly concerning the NAM short range meso guidance beyond 48 hours.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is this liquid or frozen precipitation?

It's way too soon to worry about those 'finer' details' and particularly concerning the NAM short range meso guidance beyond 48 hours.

Yeah, at this point we need to ake sure we have the moisture Everything else will play itself out when the moisture comes on board

[Portastorm]

I'm loving the 12z NAM. Loving it!

That run has a ++PWC/--WSI index

By the way, the Portastorm Weather Center has scheduled a news conference for 4 p.m. tomorrow (Wednesday). Storm2k News will cover the event.

[Tireman4]

I'm loving the 12z NAM. Loving it!

That run has a ++PWC/--WSI index

[b]By the way, the Portastorm Weather Center has scheduled a news conference for 4 p.m. tomorrow (Wednesday). Storm2k News will cover the event.[/b]

Thank goodness. That is the only news source I trust in weather.

[TheProfessor]

Is this liquid or frozen precipitation?

It's way too soon to worry about those 'finer' details' and particularly concerning the NAM short range meso guidance beyond 48 hours.

Yeah, at this point we need to ake sure we have the moisture Everything else will play itself out when the moisture comes on board

Ok, I was just wondering because close to an inch of rain is a lot different than close to an inch of snow when you convert the rain into snow.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah, at this point we need to ake sure we have the moisture Everything else will play itself out when the moisture comes on board

Ok, I was just wondering because close to an inch of rain is a lot different than close to an inch of snow when you convert the rain into snow.

1 inch of liquid to snow using the standard rule is 10 inches of snow. .2 inches of liquid is 2 inches of snow.

[gpsnowman]

Awesome!!! A PWC news conference is always good. Porta, maybe you could nudge a little moisture up DFWs way. I don't mean to sound greedy but......I am.

[Tireman4]

Oh look what I found rummaging through the archives. This brings back memories of an event four days out....December 2009...Houston (HGX). Enjoy...


Well HGX is getting a bit more bullish on the event...

IT SEEMS THAT YESTERDAY`S 12Z GFS RUN PICKED UP ON A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IT HAD NOT PREVIOUSLY RESOLVED. THE
SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER THE PAC NW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRI AS A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO IT ON THU. TODAY`S 12Z
GFS CONTINUES THIS TREND AS DOES THE 12Z NAM. THIS BRINGS MORE
CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST WINTER PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY FRI.
THE EVENT MAY BE 4 DAYS OUT BUT WILL DO THE BEST TO HASH OUT
DETAILS OF THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ANY HEAVIER PRECIP
BANDS. THE NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL DETAIL OUR LATEST
THINKING BUT WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ALSO FEATURE AN SPS TO OUTLINE WINTER
PRECIP THREATS/HAZARDS AND TIMING OF THE EVENT FOR AREAS OF SE TX.

[Big O]

I'm loving the 12z NAM. Loving it!

That run has a ++PWC/--WSI index

By the way, the Portastorm Weather Center has scheduled a news conference for 4 p.m. tomorrow (Wednesday). Storm2k News will cover the event.

I can see why. Looks like a good 2-6" for PWC-Austin branch. Let's see what the GFS and Euro have to say at 12z before we get ahead of ourselves.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

If I can just get an inch of sleet in MoCo, I'll be happy.

[Ntxw]

I'm loving the 12z NAM. Loving it!

That run has a ++PWC/--WSI index

By the way, the Portastorm Weather Center has scheduled a news conference for 4 p.m. tomorrow (Wednesday). Storm2k News will cover the event.

Absolutely love the WSI tank! The NTX PWC branch will be making the trip for the conference providing state of the art, colorful charts, graphs, and maps for an unparalleled visual experience (2d, 3d, and 4d). Currently picket signs are being made of anti-heat miser for all who attend.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am sticking with the idea of a low forming in the Gulf and spreading snow between I-10 and I-20 in Texas and maybe further east. I could easily see how this storm could lay down a decent band on its northern periphery before it moves east along the Gulf coast.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh look what I found rummaging through the archives. This brings back memories of an event four days out....December 2009...Houston (HGX). Enjoy...


Well HGX is getting a bit more bullish on the event...

IT SEEMS THAT YESTERDAY`S 12Z GFS RUN PICKED UP ON A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IT HAD NOT PREVIOUSLY RESOLVED. THE
SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER THE PAC NW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRI AS A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO IT ON THU. TODAY`S 12Z
GFS CONTINUES THIS TREND AS DOES THE 12Z NAM. THIS BRINGS MORE
CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST WINTER PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY FRI.
THE EVENT MAY BE 4 DAYS OUT BUT WILL DO THE BEST TO HASH OUT
DETAILS OF THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ANY HEAVIER PRECIP
BANDS. THE NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL DETAIL OUR LATEST
THINKING BUT WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ALSO FEATURE AN SPS TO OUTLINE WINTER
PRECIP THREATS/HAZARDS AND TIMING OF THE EVENT FOR AREAS OF SE TX.

The exact event that came to mind when i saw we have a possibility of frozen precip coming. It popped up 4 days in advance and it snowed that Friday for quite some time. That was all snow though. Even as i drove into work, they expected alot more sleet and rain before the snow came. Snow came much earlier than expected. Atmosphere cooled down rapidly.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm loving the 12z NAM. Loving it!

That run has a ++PWC/--WSI index

By the way, the Portastorm Weather Center has scheduled a news conference for 4 p.m. tomorrow (Wednesday). Storm2k News will cover the event.

Absolutely love the WSI tank! The NTX PWC branch will be making the trip for the conference providing state of the art, colorful charts, graphs, and maps for an unparalleled visual experience (2d, 3d, and 4d). Currently picket signs are being made of anti-heat miser for all who attend.

Mine says "Heat is for the birds... and communists!"

[stormlover2013]

this is going to be a tough tough forecast for the gurus!!!!!

[HouTXmetro]

Regarding the Euro somewhat drying out, doesn't past experience tell us that the models tend to lose the event a few days prior then pops right back up like a day or two before?

[TheProfessor]

Is the 12:00 gfs out yet?

[stormlover2013]

running now!!!